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 Statistical Learning


A Fine Evaluation Method for Cube Copying Test for Early Detection of Alzheimer's Disease

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Background: Impairment of visual spatial cognitive function is the most common early clinical manifestation of Alzheimer's Disease (AD). When the Montreal Cognitive Assessment (MoCA) uses the "0/1" binary method ("pass/fail") to evaluate the visual spatial cognitive ability represented by the Cube Copying Test(CCT), the elder with less formal education generally score 0 point, resulting in serious bias in the evaluation results. Therefore, this study proposes a fine evaluation method for CCT based on dynamic handwriting feature extraction of DH-SCSM-BLA. method : The Cogni-CareV3.0 software independently developed by our team was used to collect dynamic handwriting data of CCT. Then, the spatial and motion features of segmented dynamic handwriting were extracted, and feature matrix with unequal dimensions were normalized. Finally, a bidirectional long short-term memory network model combined with attention mechanism (BiLSTM-Attention) was adopted for classification. Result: The experimental results showed that: The proposed method has significant superiority compared to similar studies, with a classification accuracy of 86.69%. The distribution of cube drawing ability scores has significant regularity for three aspects such as MCI patients and healthy control group, age, and levels of education. It was also found that score for each cognitive task including cube drawing ability score is negatively correlated with age. Score for each cognitive task including cube drawing ability score, but positively correlated with levels of education significantly. Conclusion: This study provides a relatively objective and comprehensive evaluation method for early screening and personalized intervention of visual spatial cognitive impairment.


Optimizing Stroke Risk Prediction: A Machine Learning Pipeline Combining ROS-Balanced Ensembles and XAI

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Stroke is a major cause of death and permanent impairment, making it a major worldwide health concern. For prompt intervention and successful preventative tactics, early risk assessment is essential. To address this challenge, we used ensemble modeling and explainable AI (XAI) techniques to create an interpretable machine learning framework for stroke risk prediction. A thorough evaluation of 10 different machine learning models using 5-fold cross-validation across several datasets was part of our all-inclusive strategy, which also included feature engineering and data pretreatment (using Random Over-Sampling (ROS) to solve class imbalance). Our optimized ensemble model (Random Forest + ExtraTrees + XGBoost) performed exceptionally well, obtaining a strong 99.09% accuracy on the Stroke Prediction Dataset (SPD). We improved the model's transparency and clinical applicability by identifying three important clinical variables using LIME-based interpretability analysis: age, hypertension, and glucose levels. Through early prediction, this study highlights how combining ensemble learning with explainable AI (XAI) can deliver highly accurate and interpretable stroke risk assessment. By enabling data-driven prevention and personalized clinical decisions, our framework has the potential to transform stroke prediction and cardiovascular risk management.


milearn: A Python Package for Multi-Instance Machine Learning

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

We introduce milearn, a Python package for multi-instance learning (MIL) that follows the familiar scikit-learn fit/predict interface while providing a unified framework for both classical and neural-network-based MIL algorithms for regression and classification. The package also includes built-in hyperparameter optimization designed specifically for small MIL datasets, enabling robust model selection in data-scarce scenarios. We demonstrate the versatility of milearn across a broad range of synthetic MIL benchmark datasets, including digit classification and regression, molecular property prediction, and protein-protein interaction (PPI) prediction. Special emphasis is placed on the key instance detection (KID) problem, for which the package provides dedicated support.


Social Media Data Mining of Human Behaviour during Bushfire Evacuation

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Traditional data sources on bushfire evacuation behaviour, such as quantitative surveys and manual observations have severe limitations. Mining social media data related to bushfire evacuations promises to close this gap by allowing the collection and processing of a large amount of behavioural data, which are low-cost, accurate, possibly including location information and rich contextual information. However, social media data have many limitations, such as being scattered, incomplete, informal, etc. Together, these limitations represent several challenges to their usefulness to better understand bushfire evacuation. To overcome these challenges and provide guidance on which and how social media data can be used, this scoping review of the literature reports on recent advances in relevant data mining techniques. In addition, future applications and open problems are discussed. We envision future applications such as evacuation model calibration and validation, emergency communication, personalised evacuation training, and resource allocation for evacuation preparedness. We identify open problems such as data quality, bias and representativeness, geolocation accuracy, contextual understanding, crisis-specific lexicon and semantics, and multimodal data interpretation.


On the Tension Between Optimality and Adversarial Robustness in Policy Optimization

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Achieving optimality and adversarial robustness in deep reinforcement learning has long been regarded as conflicting goals. Nonetheless, recent theoretical insights presented in CAR suggest a potential alignment, raising the important question of how to realize this in practice. This paper first identifies a key gap between theory and practice by comparing standard policy optimization (SPO) and adversarially robust policy optimization (ARPO). Although they share theoretical consistency, a fundamental tension between robustness and optimality arises in practical policy gradient methods. SPO tends toward convergence to vulnerable first-order stationary policies (FOSPs) with strong natural performance, whereas ARPO typically favors more robust FOSPs at the expense of reduced returns. Furthermore, we attribute this tradeoff to the reshaping effect of the strongest adversary in ARPO, which significantly complicates the global landscape by inducing deceptive sticky FOSPs. This improves robustness but makes navigation more challenging. To alleviate this, we develop the BARPO, a bilevel framework unifying SPO and ARPO by modulating adversary strength, thereby facilitating navigability while preserving global optima. Extensive empirical results demonstrate that BARPO consistently outperforms vanilla ARPO, providing a practical approach to reconcile theoretical and empirical performance.


A Comparative Study of Machine Learning Algorithms for Electricity Price Forecasting with LIME-Based Interpretability

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

With the rapid development of electricity markets, price volatility has significantly increased, making accurate forecasting crucial for power system operations and market decisions. Traditional linear models cannot capture the complex nonlinear characteristics of electricity pricing, necessitating advanced machine learning approaches. This study compares eight machine learning models using Spanish electricity market data, integrating consumption, generation, and meteorological variables. The models evaluated include linear regression, ridge regression, decision tree, KNN, random forest, gradient boosting, SVR, and XGBoost. Results show that KNN achieves the best performance with R^2 of 0.865, MAE of 3.556, and RMSE of 5.240. To enhance interpretability, LIME analysis reveals that meteorological factors and supply-demand indicators significantly influence price fluctuations through nonlinear relationships. This work demonstrates the effectiveness of machine learning models in electricity price forecasting while improving decision transparency through interpretability analysis.


Research on Milling Machine Predictive Maintenance Based on Machine Learning and SHAP Analysis in Intelligent Manufacturing Environment

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

In the context of intelligent manufacturing, this paper conducts a series of experimental studies on the predictive maintenance of industrial milling machine equipment based on the AI4I 2020 dataset. This paper proposes a complete predictive maintenance experimental process combining artificial intelligence technology, including six main links: data preprocessing, model training, model evaluation, model selection, SHAP analysis, and result visualization. By comparing and analyzing the performance of eight machine learning models, it is found that integrated learning methods such as XGBoost and random forest perform well in milling machine fault prediction tasks. In addition, with the help of SHAP analysis technology, the influence mechanism of different features on equipment failure is deeply revealed, among which processing temperature, torque and speed are the key factors affecting failure. This study combines artificial intelligence and manufacturing technology, provides a methodological reference for predictive maintenance practice in an intelligent manufacturing environment, and has practical significance for promoting the digital transformation of the manufacturing industry, improving production efficiency and reducing maintenance costs.


First On-Orbit Demonstration of a Geospatial Foundation Model

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

However, their large size poses a barrier to deployment on resource-constrained space hardware. To address this, we present compact variants of a Vision Transformer (ViT)-based GeoFM that preserve downstream task performance while enabling onboard execution. Evaluation across five downstream tasks and validation in two representative flight environments show that model compression and domain adaptation are critical to reducing size and resource demands while maintaining high performance under operational conditions. We further demonstrate reliable on-orbit inference with the IMAGIN-e payload aboard the International Space Station. These results establish a pathway from large GeoFMs to flight-ready, resource-efficient deployments, expanding the feasibility of onboard AI for EO missions.


Toward a benchmark for CTR prediction in online advertising: datasets, evaluation protocols and perspectives

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

This research designs a unified architecture of CTR prediction benchmark (Bench-CTR) platform that offers flexible interfaces with datasets and components of a wide range of CTR prediction models. Moreover, we construct a comprehensive system of evaluation protocols encompassing real-world and synthetic datasets, a taxonomy of metrics, standardized procedures and experimental guidelines for calibrating the performance of CTR prediction models. Furthermore, we implement the proposed benchmark platform and conduct a comparative study to evaluate a wide range of state-of-the-art models from traditional multivariate statistical to modern large language model (LLM)-based approaches on three public datasets and two synthetic datasets. Experimental results reveal that, (1) high-order models largely outperform low-order models, though such advantage varies in terms of metrics and on different datasets; (2) LLM-based models demonstrate a remarkable data efficiency, i.e., achieving the comparable performance to other models while using only 2% of the training data; (3) the performance of CTR prediction models has achieved significant improvements from 2015 to 2016, then reached a stage with slow progress, which is consistent across various datasets. This benchmark is expected to facilitate model development and evaluation and enhance practitioners' understanding of the underlying mechanisms of models in the area of CTR prediction. Code is available at https://github.com/NuriaNinja/Bench-CTR.


Conversion rate prediction in online advertising: modeling techniques, performance evaluation and future directions

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Conversion and conversion rate (CVR) prediction play a critical role in efficient advertising decision-making. In past decades, although researchers have developed plenty of models for CVR prediction, the methodological evolution and relationships between different techniques have been precluded. In this paper, we conduct a comprehensive literature review on CVR prediction in online advertising, and classify state-of-the-art CVR prediction models into six categories with respect to the underlying techniques and elaborate on connections between these techniques. For each category of models, we present the framework of underlying techniques, their advantages and disadvantages, and discuss how they are utilized for CVR prediction. Moreover, we summarize the performance of various CVR prediction models on public and proprietary datasets. Finally, we identify research trends, major challenges, and promising future directions. We observe that results of performance evaluation reported in prior studies are not unanimous; semantics-enriched, attribution-enhanced, debiased CVR prediction and jointly modeling CTR and CVR prediction would be promising directions to explore in the future. This review is expected to provide valuable references and insights for future researchers and practitioners in this area.