Local linear regression performs very well in many low-dimensional forecasting problems. In high-dimensional spaces, its performance typically decays due to the well-known "curse-of-dimensionality". A possible way to approach this problem is by varying the "shape" of the weighting kernel. In this work we suggest a new, data-driven method to estimating the optimal kernel shape. Experiments using an artificially generated data set and data from the UC Irvine repository show the benefits of kernel shaping. 1 Introduction Local linear regression has attracted considerable attention in both statistical and machine learning literature as a flexible tool for nonparametric regression analysis [Cle79, FG96, AMS97]. Like most statistical smoothing approaches, local modeling suffers from the so-called "curse-of-dimensionality", the well-known fact that the proportion of the training data that lie in a fixed-radius neighborhood of a point decreases to zero at an exponential rate with increasing dimension of the input space.

In hyperspectral imagery one pixel typically consists of a mixture of the reflectance spectra of several materials, where the mixture coefficients correspond to the abundances of the constituting materials. We assume linear combinations of reflectance spectra with some additive normal sensor noise and derive a probabilistic MAP framework for analyzing hyperspectral data. As the material reflectance characteristics are not know a priori, we face the problem of unsupervised linear unmixing.

Recent theoretical results suggest that the effectiveness of these algorithms is due to their tendency to produce large margin classifiers [1, 18]. Loosely speaking, if a combination of classifiers correctly classifies most of the training data with a large margin, then its error probability is small. In [14] we gave improved upper bounds on the misclassification probability of a combined classifier in terms of the average over the training data of a certain cost function of the margins.

We describe a new incremental algorithm for training linear threshold functions: the Relaxed Online Maximum Margin Algorithm, or ROMMA. ROMMA can be viewed as an approximation to the algorithm that repeatedly chooses the hyperplane that classifies previously seen examples correctly with the maximum margin. It is known that such a maximum-margin hypothesis can be computed by minimizing the length of the weight vector subject to a number of linear constraints. ROMMA works by maintaining a relatively simple relaxation of these constraints that can be efficiently updated. We prove a mistake bound for ROMMA that is the same as that proved for the perceptron algorithm. Our analysis implies that the more computationally intensive maximum-margin algorithm also satisfies this mistake bound; this is the first worst-case performance guarantee for this algorithm. We describe some experiments using ROMMA and a variant that updates its hypothesis more aggressively as batch algorithms to recognize handwritten digits. The computational complexity and simplicity of these algorithms is similar to that of perceptron algorithm, but their generalization is much better. We describe a sense in which the performance of ROMMA converges to that of SVM in the limit if bias isn't considered.

We present a general framework for discriminative estimation based on the maximum entropy principle and its extensions. All calculations involve distributions over structures and/or parameters rather than specific settings and reduce to relative entropy projections. This holds even when the data is not separable within the chosen parametric class, in the context of anomaly detection rather than classification, or when the labels in the training set are uncertain or incomplete. Support vector machines are naturally subsumed under this class and we provide several extensions. We are also able to estimate exactly and efficiently discriminative distributions over tree structures of class-conditional models within this framework.

Transduction is an inference principle that takes a training sample and aims at estimating the values of a function at given points contained in the so-called working sample as opposed to the whole of input space for induction. Transduction provides a confidence measure on single predictions rather than classifiers - a feature particularly important for risk-sensitive applications. The possibly infinite number of functions is reduced to a finite number of equivalence classes on the working sample. A rigorous Bayesian analysis reveals that for standard classification loss we cannot benefit from considering more than one test point at a time. The probability of the label of a given test point is determined as the posterior measure of the corresponding subset of hypothesis space. We consider the PAC setting of binary classification by linear discriminant functions (perceptrons) in kernel space such that the probability of labels is determined by the volume ratio in version space. We suggest to sample this region by an ergodic billiard. Experimental results on real world data indicate that Bayesian Transduction compares favourably to the well-known Support Vector Machine, in particular if the posterior probability of labellings is used as a confidence measure to exclude test points of low confidence.

Zoubin Ghahramani and Matthew J. Beal Gatsby Computational Neuroscience Unit University College London 17 Queen Square, London WC1N 3AR, England {zoubin,m.beal}Ggatsby.ucl.ac.uk Abstract We present an algorithm that infers the model structure of a mixture of factor analysers using an efficient and deterministic variational approximation to full Bayesian integration over model parameters. This procedure can automatically determine the optimal number of components and the local dimensionality of each component (Le. the number of factors in each factor analyser). Alternatively it can be used to infer posterior distributions over number of components and dimensionalities. Since all parameters are integrated out the method is not prone to overfitting. Using a stochastic procedure for adding components it is possible to perform the variational optimisation incrementally and to avoid local maxima.

Ever since Pearl's probability propagation algorithm in graphs with cycles was shown to produce excellent results for error-correcting decoding a few years ago, we have been curious about whether local probability propagation could be used successfully for machine learning. One of the simplest adaptive models is the factor analyzer, which is a two-layer network that models bottom layer sensory inputs as a linear combination of top layer factors plus independent Gaussian sensor noise. We show that local probability propagation in the factor analyzer network usually takes just a few iterations to perform accurate inference, even in networks with 320 sensors and 80 factors. We derive an expression for the algorithm's fixed point and show that this fixed point matches the exact solution in a variety of networks, even when the fixed point is unstable. We also show that this method can be used successfully to perform inference for approximate EM and we give results on an online face recognition task. 1 Factor analysis A simple way to encode input patterns is to suppose that each input can be wellapproximated by a linear combination of component vectors, where the amplitudes of the vectors are modulated to match the input. For a given training set, the most appropriate set of component vectors will depend on how we expect the modulation levels to behave and how we measure the distance between the input and its approximation.

For many problems, the correct behavior of a model depends not only on its input-output mapping but also on properties of its Jacobian matrix, the matrix of partial derivatives of the model's outputs with respect to its inputs. We introduce the J-prop algorithm, an efficient general method for computing the exact partial derivatives of a variety of simple functions of the Jacobian of a model with respect to its free parameters. The algorithm applies to any parametrized feedforward model, including nonlinear regression, multilayer perceptrons, and radial basis function networks.

Suppose there exists a function y* fo(x) from which we observe the measurements corrupted with noise ((Xl, YI),".