In this article, we advocate the ensemble approach for variable selection. We point out that the stochastic mechanism used to generate the variable-selection ensemble (VSE) must be picked with care. We construct a VSE using a stochastic stepwise algorithm, and compare its performance with numerous state-of-the-art algorithms.

Modern statistical applications involving large data sets have focused attention on statistical methodologies which are both efficient computationally and able to deal with the screening of large numbers of different candidate models. Here we consider computationally efficient variational Bayes approaches to inference in high-dimensional heteroscedastic linear regression, where both the mean and variance are described in terms of linear functions of the predictors and where the number of predictors can be larger than the sample size. We derive a closed form variational lower bound on the log marginal likelihood useful for model selection, and propose a novel fast greedy search algorithm on the model space which makes use of one step optimization updates to the variational lower bound in the current model for screening large numbers of candidate predictor variables for inclusion/exclusion in a computationally thrifty way. We show that the model search strategy we suggest is related to widely used orthogonal matching pursuit algorithms for model search but yields a framework for potentially extending these algorithms to more complex models. The methodology is applied in simulations and in two real examples involving prediction for food constituents using NIR technology and prediction of disease progression in diabetes.

Bankruptcy prediction is very important for all the organization since it affects the economy and rise many social problems with high costs. There are large number of techniques have been developed to predict the bankruptcy, which helps the decision makers such as investors and financial analysts. One of the bankruptcy prediction models is the hybrid model using Fuzzy C-means clustering and MARS, which uses static ratios taken from the bank financial statements for prediction, which has its own theoretical advantages. The performance of existing bankruptcy model can be improved by selecting the best features dynamically depend on the nature of the firm. This dynamic selection can be accomplished by Genetic Algorithm and it improves the performance of prediction model.

Motivated by problems of anomaly detection, this paper implements the Neyman-Pearson paradigm to deal with asymmetric errors in binary classification with a convex loss. Given a finite collection of classifiers, we combine them and obtain a new classifier that satisfies simultaneously the two following properties with high probability: (i) its probability of type I error is below a pre-specified level and (ii), it has probability of type II error close to the minimum possible. The proposed classifier is obtained by solving an optimization problem with an empirical objective and an empirical constraint. New techniques to handle such problems are developed and have consequences on chance constrained programming.

Traditional learning-based coreference resolvers operate by training the mention-pair model for determining whether two mentions are coreferent or not. Though conceptually simple and easy to understand, the mention-pair model is linguistically rather unappealing and lags far behind the heuristic-based coreference models proposed in the pre-statistical NLP era in terms of sophistication. Two independent lines of recent research have attempted to improve the mention-pair model, one by acquiring the mention-ranking model to rank preceding mentions for a given anaphor, and the other by training the entity-mention model to determine whether a preceding cluster is coreferent with a given mention. We propose a cluster-ranking approach to coreference resolution, which combines the strengths of the mention-ranking model and the entity-mention model, and is therefore theoretically more appealing than both of these models. In addition, we seek to improve cluster rankers via two extensions: (1) lexicalization and (2) incorporating knowledge of anaphoricity by jointly modeling anaphoricity determination and coreference resolution. Experimental results on the ACE data sets demonstrate the superior performance of cluster rankers to competing approaches as well as the effectiveness of our two extensions.

Hierarchical clustering based on pairwise similarities is a common tool used in a broad range of scientific applications. However, in many problems it may be expensive to obtain or compute similarities between the items to be clustered. This paper investigates the hierarchical clustering of N items based on a small subset of pairwise similarities, significantly less than the complete set of N(N-1)/2 similarities. First, we show that if the intracluster similarities exceed intercluster similarities, then it is possible to correctly determine the hierarchical clustering from as few as 3N log N similarities. We demonstrate this order of magnitude savings in the number of pairwise similarities necessitates sequentially selecting which similarities to obtain in an adaptive fashion, rather than picking them at random. We then propose an active clustering method that is robust to a limited fraction of anomalous similarities, and show how even in the presence of these noisy similarity values we can resolve the hierarchical clustering using only O(N log^2 N) pairwise similarities.

Privacy-preserving machine learning algorithms are crucial for the increasingly common setting in which personal data, such as medical or financial records, are analyzed. We provide general techniques to produce privacy-preserving approximations of classifiers learned via (regularized) empirical risk minimization (ERM). These algorithms are private under the $\epsilon$-differential privacy definition due to Dwork et al. (2006). First we apply the output perturbation ideas of Dwork et al. (2006), to ERM classification. Then we propose a new method, objective perturbation, for privacy-preserving machine learning algorithm design. This method entails perturbing the objective function before optimizing over classifiers. If the loss and regularizer satisfy certain convexity and differentiability criteria, we prove theoretical results showing that our algorithms preserve privacy, and provide generalization bounds for linear and nonlinear kernels. We further present a privacy-preserving technique for tuning the parameters in general machine learning algorithms, thereby providing end-to-end privacy guarantees for the training process. We apply these results to produce privacy-preserving analogues of regularized logistic regression and support vector machines. We obtain encouraging results from evaluating their performance on real demographic and benchmark data sets. Our results show that both theoretically and empirically, objective perturbation is superior to the previous state-of-the-art, output perturbation, in managing the inherent tradeoff between privacy and learning performance.

Under what conditions is an edge present in a social network at time t likely to decay or persist by some future time t + Delta(t)? Previous research addressing this issue suggests that the network range of the people involved in the edge, the extent to which the edge is embedded in a surrounding structure, and the age of the edge all play a role in edge decay. This paper uses weighted data from a large-scale social network built from cell-phone calls in an 8-week period to determine the importance of edge weight for the decay/persistence process. In particular, we study the relative predictive power of directed weight, embeddedness, newness, and range (measured as outdegree) with respect to edge decay and assess the effectiveness with which a simple decision tree and logistic regression classifier can accurately predict whether an edge that was active in one time period continues to be so in a future time period. We find that directed edge weight, weighted reciprocity and time-dependent measures of edge longevity are highly predictive of whether we classify an edge as persistent or decayed, relative to the other types of factors at the dyad and neighborhood level.

A plausible definition of "reasoning" could be "algebraically manipulating previously acquired knowledge in order to answer a new question". This definition covers first-order logical inference or probabilistic inference. It also includes much simpler manipulations commonly used to build large learning systems. For instance, we can build an optical character recognition system by first training a character segmenter, an isolated character recognizer, and a language model, using appropriate labeled training sets. Adequately concatenating these modules and fine tuning the resulting system can be viewed as an algebraic operation in a space of models. The resulting model answers a new question, that is, converting the image of a text page into a computer readable text. This observation suggests a conceptual continuity between algebraically rich inference systems, such as logical or probabilistic inference, and simple manipulations, such as the mere concatenation of trainable learning systems. Therefore, instead of trying to bridge the gap between machine learning systems and sophisticated "all-purpose" inference mechanisms, we can instead algebraically enrich the set of manipulations applicable to training systems, and build reasoning capabilities from the ground up.

Support Vectors Machines have become a well established tool within machine learning. They work well in practice and have now been used across a wide range of applications from recognizing hand-written digits, to face identification, text categorisation, bioinformatics, and database marketing. In this book we give an introductory overview of this subject. We start with a simple Support Vector Machine for performing binary classification before considering multi-class classification and learning in the presence of noise. We show that this framework can be extended to many other scenarios such as prediction with real-valued outputs, novelty detection and the handling of complex output structures such as parse trees.