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 Statistical Learning


Prot2Token: A Unified Framework for Protein Modeling via Next-Token Prediction

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

The diverse nature of protein prediction tasks has traditionally necessitated specialized models, hindering the development of broadly applicable and computationally efficient Protein Language Models (PLMs). In this work, we introduce Prot2Token, a unified framework that overcomes these challenges by converting a wide spectrum of protein-related predictions-from sequence-level properties and residue-specific attributes to complex inter-protein interactions-into a standardized next-token prediction format. At its core, Prot2Token employs an autoregressive decoder, conditioned on embeddings from pre-trained protein encoders and guided by learnable task tokens, to perform diverse predictions. This architecture uniquely facilitates multi-task learning, enabling general-purpose decoders to generalize across five distinct categories. We present extensive experimental validation across a variety of benchmarks, demonstrating Prot2Token's predictive power in different types of protein-prediction tasks. In 3D structure prediction, Prot2Token delivers substantial speedups (up to 1000x faster than AlphaFold2 with MSA on the same hardware) while, across other numerous tasks, matching or surpassing specialized methods. Beyond that, we introduce an auxiliary self-supervised decoder pre-training approach to improve spatially sensitive task performance. Prot2Token thus offers a step towards standardizing biological prediction into a generative interface, promising to accelerate biological discovery and the development of novel therapeutics. The code is available at https://github.com/mahdip72/prot2token .


The Missing Point in Vision Transformers for Universal Image Segmentation

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Image segmentation remains a challenging task in computer vision, demanding robust mask generation and precise classification. Recent mask-based approaches yield high-quality masks by capturing global context. However, accurately classifying these masks, especially in the presence of ambiguous boundaries and imbalanced class distributions, remains an open challenge. In this work, we introduce ViT-P, a novel two-stage segmentation framework that decouples mask generation from classification. The first stage employs a proposal generator to produce class-agnostic mask proposals, while the second stage utilizes a point-based classification model built on the Vision Transformer (ViT) to refine predictions by focusing on mask central points. ViT-P serves as a pre-training-free adapter, allowing the integration of various pre-trained vision transformers without modifying their architecture, ensuring adaptability to dense prediction tasks. Furthermore, we demonstrate that coarse and bounding box annotations can effectively enhance classification without requiring additional training on fine annotation datasets, reducing annotation costs while maintaining strong performance. Extensive experiments across COCO, ADE20K, and Cityscapes datasets validate the effectiveness of ViT-P, achieving state-of-the-art results with 54.0 PQ on ADE20K panoptic segmentation, 87.4 mIoU on Cityscapes semantic segmentation, and 63.6 mIoU on ADE20K semantic segmentation. The code and pretrained models are available at: https://github.com/sajjad-sh33/ViT-P}{https://github.com/sajjad-sh33/ViT-P.


Understanding the Implicit Regularization of Gradient Descent in Over-parameterized Models

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Implicit regularization refers to the tendency of local search algorithms to converge to low-dimensional solutions, even when such structures are not explicitly enforced. Despite its ubiquity, the mechanism underlying this behavior remains poorly understood, particularly in over-parameterized settings. We analyze gradient descent dynamics and identify three conditions under which it converges to second-order stationary points within an implicit low-dimensional region: (i) suitable initialization, (ii) efficient escape from saddle points, and (iii) sustained proximity to the region. We show that these can be achieved through infinitesimal perturbations and a small deviation rate. Building on this, we introduce Infinitesimally Perturbed Gradient Descent (IPGD), which satisfies these conditions under mild assumptions. We provide theoretical guarantees for IPGD in over-parameterized matrix sensing and empirical evidence of its broader applicability.


A Bootstrap Perspective on Stochastic Gradient Descent

arXiv.org Machine Learning

Machine learning models trained with \emph{stochastic} gradient descent (SGD) can generalize better than those trained with deterministic gradient descent (GD). In this work, we study SGD's impact on generalization through the lens of the statistical bootstrap: SGD uses gradient variability under batch sampling as a proxy for solution variability under the randomness of the data collection process. We use empirical results and theoretical analysis to substantiate this claim. In idealized experiments on empirical risk minimization, we show that SGD is drawn to parameter choices that are robust under resampling and thus avoids spurious solutions even if they lie in wider and deeper minima of the training loss. We prove rigorously that by implicitly regularizing the trace of the gradient covariance matrix, SGD controls the algorithmic variability. This regularization leads to solutions that are less sensitive to sampling noise, thereby improving generalization. Numerical experiments on neural network training show that explicitly incorporating the estimate of the algorithmic variability as a regularizer improves test performance. This fact supports our claim that bootstrap estimation underpins SGD's generalization advantages.


$ฯ•$-test: Global Feature Selection and Inference for Shapley Additive Explanations

arXiv.org Machine Learning

We propose $ฯ•$-test, a global feature-selection and significance procedure for black-box predictors that combines Shapley attributions with selective inference. Given a trained model and an evaluation dataset, $ฯ•$-test performs SHAP-guided screening and fits a linear surrogate on the screened features via a selection rule with a tractable selective-inference form. For each retained feature, it outputs a Shapley-based global score, a surrogate coefficient, and post-selection $p$-values and confidence intervals in a global feature-importance table. Experiments on real tabular regression tasks with tree-based and neural backbones suggest that $ฯ•$-test can retain much of the predictive ability of the original model while using only a few features and producing feature sets that remain fairly stable across resamples and backbone classes. In these settings, $ฯ•$-test acts as a practical global explanation layer linking Shapley-based importance summaries with classical statistical inference.


On Conditional Independence Graph Learning From Multi-Attribute Gaussian Dependent Time Series

arXiv.org Machine Learning

Estimation of the conditional independence graph (CIG) of high-dimensional multivariate Gaussian time series from multi-attribute data is considered. Existing methods for graph estimation for such data are based on single-attribute models where one associates a scalar time series with each node. In multi-attribute graphical models, each node represents a random vector or vector time series. In this paper we provide a unified theoretical analysis of multi-attribute graph learning for dependent time series using a penalized log-likelihood objective function formulated in the frequency domain using the discrete Fourier transform of the time-domain data. We consider both convex (sparse-group lasso) and non-convex (log-sum and SCAD group penalties) penalty/regularization functions. We establish sufficient conditions in a high-dimensional setting for consistency (convergence of the inverse power spectral density to true value in the Frobenius norm), local convexity when using non-convex penalties, and graph recovery. We do not impose any incoherence or irrepresentability condition for our convergence results. We also empirically investigate selection of the tuning parameters based on the Bayesian information criterion, and illustrate our approach using numerical examples utilizing both synthetic and real data.


Machine learning in an expectation-maximisation framework for nowcasting

arXiv.org Machine Learning

Decision making often occurs in the presence of incomplete information, leading to the under- or overestimation of risk. Leveraging the observable information to learn the complete information is called nowcasting. In practice, incomplete information is often a consequence of reporting or observation delays. In this paper, we propose an expectation-maximisation (EM) framework for nowcasting that uses machine learning techniques to model both the occurrence as well as the reporting process of events. We allow for the inclusion of covariate information specific to the occurrence and reporting periods as well as characteristics related to the entity for which events occurred. We demonstrate how the maximisation step and the information flow between EM iterations can be tailored to leverage the predictive power of neural networks and (extreme) gradient boosting machines (XGBoost). With simulation experiments, we show that we can effectively model both the occurrence and reporting of events when dealing with high-dimensional covariate information. In the presence of non-linear effects, we show that our methodology outperforms existing EM-based nowcasting frameworks that use generalised linear models in the maximisation step. Finally, we apply the framework to the reporting of Argentinian Covid-19 cases, where the XGBoost-based approach again is most performant.


Learning Conditional Independence Differential Graphs From Time-Dependent Data

arXiv.org Machine Learning

Estimation of differences in conditional independence graphs (CIGs) of two time series Gaussian graphical models (TSGGMs) is investigated where the two TSGGMs are known to have similar structure. The TSGGM structure is encoded in the inverse power spectral density (IPSD) of the time series. In several existing works, one is interested in estimating the difference in two precision matrices to characterize underlying changes in conditional dependencies of two sets of data consisting of independent and identically distributed (i.i.d.) observations. In this paper we consider estimation of the difference in two IPSDs to characterize the underlying changes in conditional dependencies of two sets of time-dependent data. Our approach accounts for data time dependencies unlike past work. We analyze a penalized D-trace loss function approach in the frequency domain for differential graph learning, using Wirtinger calculus. We consider both convex (group lasso) and non-convex (log-sum and SCAD group penalties) penalty/regularization functions. An alternating direction method of multipliers (ADMM) algorithm is presented to optimize the objective function. We establish sufficient conditions in a high-dimensional setting for consistency (convergence of the inverse power spectral density to true value in the Frobenius norm) and graph recovery. Both synthetic and real data examples are presented in support of the proposed approaches. In synthetic data examples, our log-sum-penalized differential time-series graph estimator significantly outperformed our lasso based differential time-series graph estimator which, in turn, significantly outperformed an existing lasso-penalized i.i.d. modeling approach, with $F_1$ score as the performance metric.


Symmetric Aggregation of Conformity Scores for Efficient Uncertainty Sets

arXiv.org Machine Learning

Access to multiple predictive models trained for the same task, whether in regression or classification, is increasingly common in many applications. Aggregating their predictive uncertainties to produce reliable and efficient uncertainty quantification is therefore a critical but still underexplored challenge, especially within the framework of conformal prediction (CP). While CP methods can generate individual prediction sets from each model, combining them into a single, more informative set remains a challenging problem. To address this, we propose SACP (Symmetric Aggregated Con-formal Prediction), a novel method that aggregates nonconformity scores from multiple predictors. SACP transforms these scores into e-values and combines them using any symmetric aggregation function. This flexible design enables a robust, data-driven framework for selecting aggregation strategies that yield sharper prediction sets. We also provide theoretical insights that help justify the validity and performance of the SACP approach. Extensive experiments on diverse datasets show that SACP consistently improves efficiency and often outperforms state-of-the-art model aggregation baselines.


ADAM Optimization with Adaptive Batch Selection

arXiv.org Machine Learning

Adam is a widely used optimizer in neural network training due to its adaptive learning rate. However, because different data samples influence model updates to varying degrees, treating them equally can lead to inefficient convergence. To address this, a prior work proposed adapting the sampling distribution using a bandit framework to select samples adaptively. While promising, the bandit-based variant of Adam suffers from limited theoretical guarantees. In this paper, we introduce Adam with Combinatorial Bandit Sampling (AdamCB), which integrates combinatorial bandit techniques into Adam to resolve these issues. AdamCB is able to fully utilize feedback from multiple samples at once, enhancing both theoretical guarantees and practical performance. Our regret analysis shows that AdamCB achieves faster convergence than Adam-based methods including the previous bandit-based variant. Numerical experiments demonstrate that AdamCB consistently outperforms existing methods.