A serious problem in learning probabilistic models is the presence of hidden variables. These variables are not observed, yet interact with several of the observed variables. Detecting hidden variables poses two problems: determining the relations to other variables in the model and determining the number of states of the hidden variable. In this paper, we address the latter problem in the context of Bayesian networks. We describe an approach that utilizes a score-based agglomerative state-clustering. As we show, this approach allows us to efficiently evaluate models with a range of cardinalities for the hidden variable. We show how to extend this procedure to deal with multiple interacting hidden variables. We demonstrate the effectiveness of this approach by evaluating it on synthetic and real-life data. We show that our approach learns models with hidden variables that generalize better and have better structure than previous approaches.

We present a general framework for defining priors on model structure and sampling from the posterior using the Metropolis-Hastings algorithm. The key idea is that structure priors are defined via a probability tree and that the proposal mechanism for the Metropolis-Hastings algorithm operates by traversing this tree, thereby defining a cheaply computable acceptance probability. We have applied this approach to Bayesian net structure learning using a number of priors and tree traversal strategies. Our results show that these must be chosen appropriately for this approach to be successful.

In this paper, we present an efficient way of performing stepwise selection in the class of decomposable models. The main contribution of the paper is a simple characterization of the edges that canbe added to a decomposable model while keeping the resulting model decomposable and an efficient algorithm for enumerating all such edges for a given model in essentially O(1) time per edge. We also discuss how backward selection can be performed efficiently using our data structures.We also analyze the complexity of the complete stepwise selection procedure, including the complexity of choosing which of the eligible dges to add to (or delete from) the current model, with the aim ofminimizing the Kullback-Leibler distance of the resulting model from the saturated model for the data.

Automatic continuous speech recognition (CSR) is sufficiently mature that a variety of real world applications are now possible including large vocabulary transcription and interactive spoken dialogues. This paper reviews the evolution of the statistical modelling techniques which underlie current-day systems, specifically hidden Markov models (HMMs) and N-grams. Starting from a description of the speech signal and its parameterisation, the various modelling assumptions and their consequences are discussed. It then describes various techniques by which the effects of these assumptions can be mitigated. Despite the progress that has been made, the limitations of current modelling techniques are still evident. The paper therefore concludes with a brief review of some of the more fundamental modelling work now in progress.

Planning problems are hard, motion planning, for example, isPSPACE-hard. Such problems are even more difficult in the presence of uncertainty. Although, Markov Decision Processes (MDPs) provide a formal framework for such problems, finding solutions to high dimensional continuous MDPs is usually difficult, especially when the actions and time measurements are continuous. Fortunately, problem-specific knowledge allows us to design controllers that are good locally, though having no global guarantees. We propose a method of nonparametrically combining local controllers to obtain globally good solutions. We apply this formulation to two types of problems : motion planning (stochastic shortest path) and discounted MDPs. For motion planning, we argue that usual MDP optimality criterion (expected cost) may not be practically relevant. Wepropose an alternative: finding the minimum cost path,subject to the constraint that the robot must reach the goal withhigh probability. For this problem, we prove that a polynomial number of samples is sufficient to obtain a high probability path. For discounted MDPs, we propose a formulation that explicitly deals with model uncertainty, i.e., the problem introduced when transition probabilities are not known exactly. We formulate the problem as a robust linear program which directly incorporates this type of uncertainty.

In a causal graphical model, an instrument for a variable X and its effect Y is a random variable that is a cause of X and independent of all the causes of Y except X. (Pearl (1995), Spirtes et al (2000)). Instrumental variables can be used to estimate how the distribution of an effect will respond to a manipulation of its causes, even in the presence of unmeasured common causes (confounders). In typical instrumental variable estimation, instruments are chosen based on domain knowledge. There is currently no statistical test for validating a variable as an instrument. In this paper, we introduce the concept of semi-instrument, which generalizes the concept of instrument. We show that in the framework of additive models, under certain conditions, we can test whether a variable is semi-instrumental. Moreover, adding some distribution assumptions, we can test whether two semi-instruments are instrumental. We give algorithms to estimate the p-value that a random variable is semi-instrumental, and the p-value that two semi-instruments are both instrumental. These algorithms can be used to test the experts' choice of instruments, or to identify instruments automatically.

We propose a spectral clustering method based on local principal components analysis (PCA). After performing local PCA in selected neighborhoods, the algorithm builds a nearest neighbor graph weighted according to a discrepancy between the principal subspaces in the neighborhoods, and then applies spectral clustering. As opposed to standard spectral methods based solely on pairwise distances between points, our algorithm is able to resolve intersections. We establish theoretical guarantees for simpler variants within a prototypical mathematical framework for multi-manifold clustering, and evaluate our algorithm on various simulated data sets.

We propose an approach to multivariate nonparametric regression that generalizes reduced rank regression for linear models. An additive model is estimated for each dimension of a $q$-dimensional response, with a shared $p$-dimensional predictor variable. To control the complexity of the model, we employ a functional form of the Ky-Fan or nuclear norm, resulting in a set of function estimates that have low rank. Backfitting algorithms are derived and justified using a nonparametric form of the nuclear norm subdifferential. Oracle inequalities on excess risk are derived that exhibit the scaling behavior of the procedure in the high dimensional setting. The methods are illustrated on gene expression data.

Recent work in metric learning has significantly improved the state-of-the-art in k-nearest neighbor classification. Support vector machines (SVM), particularly with RBF kernels, are amongst the most popular classification algorithms that uses distance metrics to compare examples. This paper provides an empirical analysis of the efficacy of three of the most popular Mahalanobis metric learning algorithms as pre-processing for SVM training. We show that none of these algorithms generate metrics that lead to particularly satisfying improvements for SVM-RBF classification. As a remedy we introduce support vector metric learning (SVML), a novel algorithm that seamlessly combines the learning of a Mahalanobis metric with the training of the RBF-SVM parameters. We demonstrate the capabilities of SVML on nine benchmark data sets of varying sizes and difficulties. In our study, SVML outperforms all alternative state-of-the-art metric learning algorithms in terms of accuracy and establishes itself as a serious alternative to the standard Euclidean metric with model selection by cross validation.

We consider the problem of simultaneously learning to linearly combine a very large number of kernels and learn a good predictor based on the learnt kernel. When the number of kernels $d$ to be combined is very large, multiple kernel learning methods whose computational cost scales linearly in $d$ are intractable. We propose a randomized version of the mirror descent algorithm to overcome this issue, under the objective of minimizing the group $p$-norm penalized empirical risk. The key to achieve the required exponential speed-up is the computationally efficient construction of low-variance estimates of the gradient. We propose importance sampling based estimates, and find that the ideal distribution samples a coordinate with a probability proportional to the magnitude of the corresponding gradient. We show the surprising result that in the case of learning the coefficients of a polynomial kernel, the combinatorial structure of the base kernels to be combined allows the implementation of sampling from this distribution to run in $O(\log(d))$ time, making the total computational cost of the method to achieve an $\epsilon$-optimal solution to be $O(\log(d)/\epsilon^2)$, thereby allowing our method to operate for very large values of $d$. Experiments with simulated and real data confirm that the new algorithm is computationally more efficient than its state-of-the-art alternatives.