We propose a robust and scalable variational Bayes (VB) framework designed to effectively handle contamination and outliers in dataset. Our approach partitions the data into $m$ disjoint subsets and formulates a joint optimization problem based on robust aggregation principles. A key insight is that the full posterior distribution is equivalent to the minimizer of the mean Kullback-Leibler (KL) divergence from the $m$-powered local posterior distributions. To enhance robustness, we replace the mean KL divergence with a min-max median formulation. The min-max formulation not only ensures consistency between the KL minimizer and the Evidence Lower Bound (ELBO) maximizer but also facilitates the establishment of improved statistical rates for the mean of variational posterior. We observe a notable discrepancy in the $m$-powered marginal log likelihood function contingent on the presence of local latent variables. To address this, we treat these two scenarios separately to guarantee the consistency of the aggregated variational posterior. Specifically, when local latent variables are present, we introduce an aggregate-and-rescale strategy. Theoretically, we provide a non-asymptotic analysis of our proposed posterior, incorporating a refined analysis of Bernstein-von Mises (BvM) theorem to accommodate a diverging number of subsets $m$. Our findings indicate that the two-stage approach yields a smaller approximation error compared to directly aggregating the $m$-powered local posteriors. Furthermore, we establish a nearly optimal statistical rate for the mean of the proposed posterior, advancing existing theories related to min-max median estimators. The efficacy of our method is demonstrated through extensive simulation studies.

Data attribution aims to explain model predictions by estimating how they would change if certain training points were removed, and is used in a wide range of applications, from interpretability and credit assignment to unlearning and privacy. Even in the relatively simple case of linear regressions, existing mathematical analyses of leading data attribution methods such as Influence Functions (IF) and single Newton Step (NS) remain limited in two key ways. First, they rely on global strong convexity assumptions which are often not satisfied in practice. Second, the resulting bounds scale very poorly with the number of parameters ($d$) and the number of samples removed ($k$). As a result, these analyses are not tight enough to answer fundamental questions such as "what is the asymptotic scaling of the errors of each method?" or "which of these methods is more accurate for a given dataset?" In this paper, we introduce a new analysis of the NS and IF data attribution methods for convex learning problems. To the best of our knowledge, this is the first analysis of these questions that does not assume global strong convexity and also the first explanation of [KATL19] and [RH25a]'s observation that NS data attribution is often more accurate than IF. We prove that for sufficiently well-behaved logistic regression, our bounds are asymptotically tight up to poly-logarithmic factors, yielding scaling laws for the errors in the average-case sample removals. \[ \mathbb{E}_{T \subseteq [n],\, |T| = k} \bigl[ \|\hatθ_T - \hatθ_T^{\mathrm{NS}}\|_2 \bigr] = \widetildeΘ\!\left(\frac{k d}{n^2}\right), \qquad \mathbb{E}_{T \subseteq [n],\, |T| = k} \bigl[ \|\hatθ_T^{\mathrm{NS}} - \hatθ_T^{\mathrm{IF}}\|_2 \bigr] = \widetildeΘ\!\left( \frac{(k + d)\sqrt{k d}}{n^2} \right). \]

Distributionally robust optimization (DRO) has emerged as a powerful paradigm for reliable decision-making under uncertainty. This paper focuses on DRO with ambiguity sets defined via the Sinkhorn discrepancy: an entropy-regularized Wasserstein distance, referred to as Sinkhorn DRO. Existing work primarily addresses Sinkhorn DRO from a dual perspective, leveraging its formulation as a conditional stochastic optimization problem, for which many stochastic gradient methods are applicable. However, the theoretical analyses of such methods often rely on the boundedness of the loss function, and it is indirect to obtain the worst-case distribution associated with Sinkhorn DRO. In contrast, we study Sinkhorn DRO from the primal perspective, by reformulating it as a bilevel program with several infinite-dimensional lower-level subproblems over probability space. This formulation enables us to simultaneously obtain the optimal robust decision and the worst-case distribution, which is valuable in practical settings, such as generating stress-test scenarios or designing robust learning algorithms. We propose both double-loop and single-loop sampling-based algorithms with theoretical guarantees to solve this bilevel program. Finally, we demonstrate the effectiveness of our approach through a numerical study on adversarial classification.

Efforts to improve Kolmogorov-Arnold networks (KANs) with architectural enhancements have been stymied by the complexity those enhancements bring, undermining the interpretability that makes KANs attractive in the first place. Here we study overprovisioned architectures combined with sparsification to learn compact, interpretable KANs without sacrificing accuracy. Crucially, we focus on differentiable sparsification, turning architecture search into an end-to-end optimization problem. Across function approximation benchmarks, dynamical systems forecasting, and real-world prediction tasks, we demonstrate competitive or superior accuracy while discovering substantially smaller models. Overprovisioning and sparsification are synergistic, with the combination outperforming either alone. The result is a principled path toward models that are both more expressive and more interpretable, addressing a key tension in scientific machine learning.

Identifying the graphical structure underlying the observed multivariate data is essential in numerous applications. Current methodologies are predominantly confined to deducing a singular graph under the presumption that the observed data are uniform. However, many contexts involve heterogeneous datasets that feature multiple closely related graphs, typically referred to as multiview graphs. Previous research on multiview graph learning promotes edge-based similarity across layers using pairwise or consensus-based regularizers. However, multiview graphs frequently exhibit a shared node-based architecture across different views, such as common hub nodes. Such commonalities can enhance the precision of learning and provide interpretive insight. In this paper, we propose a co-hub node model, positing that different views share a common group of hub nodes. The associated optimization framework is developed by enforcing structured sparsity on the connections of these co-hub nodes. Moreover, we present a theoretical examination of layer identifiability and determine bounds on estimation error. The proposed methodology is validated using both synthetic graph data and fMRI time series data from multiple subjects to discern several closely related graphs.

Proper quantification of predictive uncertainty is essential for the use of machine learning in safety-critical applications. V arious uncertainty measures have been proposed for this purpose, typically claiming superiority over other measures. In this paper, we argue that there is no single best measure. Instead, uncertainty quantification should be tailored to the specific application. To this end, we use a flexible family of uncertainty measures that distinguishes between total, aleatoric, and epistemic uncertainty of second-order distributions. These measures can be instantiated with specific loss functions, so-called proper scoring rules, to control their characteristics, and we show that different characteristics are useful for different tasks. In particular, we show that, for the task of selective prediction, the scoring rule should ideally match the task loss. On the other hand, for out-of-distribution detection, our results confirm that mutual information, a widely used measure of epistemic uncertainty, performs best. Furthermore, in an active learning setting, epistemic uncertainty based on zero-one loss is shown to consistently outperform other uncertainty measures.

Model selection is a pivotal process in the quantitative sciences, where researchers must navigate between numerous candidate models of varying complexity. Traditional information criteria, such as the corrected Akaike Information Criterion (AICc), Bayesian Information Criterion (BIC), and Mallows's $\mathit{C_p}$, are valuable tools for identifying optimal models. However, the exponential increase in candidate models with each additional model parameter renders the evaluation of these criteria for all models -- a strategy known as exhaustive, or brute-force, searches -- computationally prohibitive. Consequently, heuristic approaches like stepwise regression are commonly employed, albeit without guarantees of finding the globally-optimal model. In this study, we challenge the prevailing notion that non-monotonicity in information criteria precludes bounds on the search space. We introduce a simple but novel bound that enables the development of branch-and-bound algorithms tailored for these non-monotonic functions. We demonstrate that our approach guarantees identification of the optimal model(s) across diverse model classes, sizes, and applications, often with orders of magnitude computational speedups. For instance, in one previously-published model selection task involving $2^{32}$ (approximately 4 billion) candidate models, our method achieves a computational speedup exceeding 6,000. These findings have broad implications for the scalability and effectiveness of model selection in complex scientific domains.

Understanding and distinguishing temporal patterns in time series data is essential for scientific discovery and decision-making. For example, in biomedical research, uncovering meaningful patterns in physiological signals can improve diagnosis, risk assessment, and patient outcomes. However, existing methods for time series pattern discovery face major challenges, including high computational complexity, limited interpretability, and difficulty in capturing meaningful temporal structures. To address these gaps, we introduce a novel learning framework that jointly trains two Transformer models using complementary time series representations: shapelet-based representations to capture localized temporal structures and traditional feature engineering to encode statistical properties. The learned shapelets serve as interpretable signatures that differentiate time series across classification labels. Additionally, we develop a visual analytics system -- SigTIme -- with coordinated views to facilitate exploration of time series signatures from multiple perspectives, aiding in useful insights generation. We quantitatively evaluate our learning framework on eight publicly available datasets and one proprietary clinical dataset. Additionally, we demonstrate the effectiveness of our system through two usage scenarios along with the domain experts: one involving public ECG data and the other focused on preterm labor analysis.

In Data Science, entities are typically represented by single valued measurements. Symbolic Data Analysis extends this framework to more complex structures, such as intervals and histograms, that express internal variability. We propose an extension of multiclass Fisher's Discriminant Analysis to interval-valued data, using Moore's interval arithmetic and the Mallows' distance. Fisher's objective function is generalised to consider simultaneously the contributions of the centres and the ranges of intervals and is numerically maximised. The resulting discriminant directions are then used to classify interval-valued observations.To support visual assessment, we adapt the class map, originally introduced for conventional data, to classifiers that assign labels through minimum distance rules. We also extend the silhouette plot to this setting and use stacked mosaic plots to complement the visual display of class assignments. Together, these graphical tools provide insight into classifier performance and the strength of class membership. Applications to real datasets illustrate the proposed methodology and demonstrate its value in interpreting classification results for interval-valued data.

Diffusion-based samplers -- Score Based Diffusions, Bridge Diffusions and Path Integral Diffusions -- match a target at terminal time, but the real leverage comes from choosing the schedule that governs the intermediate-time dynamics. We develop a path-wise schedule -- selection gramework for Harmonic PID with a time-varying stiffness, exploiting Piece-Wise-Constant(PWC) parametrizations and a simple hierarchical refinement. We introduce schedule-sensitive Quality-of-Sampling (QoS) diagnostics. Assuming a Gaussian-Mixture (GM) target, we retain closed-form Green functions' ration and numerically stable, Neural-Network free oracles for predicted-state maps and score. Experiments in 2D show that QoS driven PWC schedules consistently improve early-exit fidelity, tail accuracy, conditioning of the dynamics, and speciation (label-selection) timing at fixed integration budgets.