Recent years have witnessed significant advancements in machine learning methods on graphs. However, transferring knowledge effectively from one graph to another remains a critical challenge. This highlights the need for algorithms capable of applying information extracted from a source graph to an unlabeled target graph, a task known as unsupervised graph domain adaptation (GDA). One key difficulty in unsupervised GDA is conditional shift, which hinders transferability. In this paper, we show that conditional shift can be observed only if there exists local dependencies among node features. To support this claim, we perform a rigorous analysis and also further provide generalization bounds of GDA when dependent node features are modeled using markov chains. Guided by the theoretical findings, we propose to improve GDA by decorrelating node features, which can be specifically implemented through decorrelated GCN layers and graph transformer layers. Our experimental results demonstrate the effectiveness of this approach, showing not only substantial performance enhancements over baseline GDA methods but also clear visualizations of small intra-class distances in the learned representations. Our code is available at https://github.com/TechnologyAiGroup/DFT

Out-of-distribution (OOD) detection is essential for determining when a supervised model encounters inputs that differ meaningfully from its training distribution. While widely studied in classification, OOD detection for regression and survival analysis remains limited due to the absence of discrete labels and the challenge of quantifying predictive uncertainty. We introduce a framework for OOD detection that is simultaneously model aware and subspace aware, and that embeds variable prioritization directly into the detection step. The method uses the fitted predictor to construct localized neighborhoods around each test case that emphasize the features driving the model's learned relationship and downweight directions that are less relevant to prediction. It produces OOD scores without relying on global distance metrics or estimating the full feature density. The framework is applicable across outcome types, and in our implementation we use random forests, where the rule structure yields transparent neighborhoods and effective scoring. Experiments on synthetic and real data benchmarks designed to isolate functional shifts show consistent improvements over existing methods. We further demonstrate the approach in an esophageal cancer survival study, where distribution shifts related to lymphadenectomy identify patterns relevant to surgical guidelines.

Mixture models are widely used in modeling heterogeneous data populations. A standard approach of mixture modeling is to assume that the mixture component takes a parametric kernel form, while the flexibility of the model can be obtained by using a large or possibly unbounded number of such parametric kernels. In many applications, making parametric assumptions on the latent subpopulation distributions may be unrealistic, which motivates the need for nonparametric modeling of the mixture components themselves. In this paper we study finite mixtures with nonparametric mixture components, using a Bayesian nonparametric modeling approach. In particular, it is assumed that the data population is generated according to a finite mixture of latent component distributions, where each component is endowed with a Bayesian nonparametric prior such as the Dirichlet process mixture. We present conditions under which the individual mixture component's distributions can be identified, and establish posterior contraction behavior for the data population's density, as well as densities of the latent mixture components. We develop an efficient MCMC algorithm for posterior inference and demonstrate via simulation studies and real-world data illustrations that it is possible to efficiently learn complex distributions for the latent subpopulations. In theory, the posterior contraction rate of the component densities is nearly polynomial, which is a significant improvement over the logarithm convergence rate of estimating mixing measures via deconvolution.

Identifying and comparing topological features, particularly cycles, across different topological objects remains a fundamental challenge in persistent homology and topological data analysis. This work introduces a novel framework for constructing cycle communities through two complementary approaches. First, a dendrogram-based methodology leverages merge-tree algorithms to construct hierarchical representations of homology classes from persistence intervals. The Wasserstein distance on merge trees is introduced as a metric for comparing dendrograms, establishing connections to hierarchical clustering frameworks. Through simulation studies, the discriminative power of dendrogram representations for identifying cycle communities is demonstrated. Second, an extension of Stratified Gradient Sampling simultaneously learns multiple filter functions that yield cycle barycenter functions capable of faithfully reconstructing distinct sets of cycles. The set of cycles each filter function can reconstruct constitutes cycle communities that are non-overlapping and partition the space of all cycles. Together, these approaches transform the problem of cycle matching into both a hierarchical clustering and topological optimization framework, providing principled methods to identify similar topological structures both within and across groups of topological objects.

Graph Convolutional Networks (GCNs) have become a standard approach for semi-supervised node classification, yet practitioners lack clear guidance on when GCNs provide meaningful improvements over simpler baselines. We present a diagnostic study using the Amazon Computers co-purchase data to understand when and why GCNs help. Through systematic experiments with simulated label scarcity, feature ablation, and per-class analysis, we find that GCN performance depends critically on the interaction between graph homophily and feature quality. GCNs provide the largest gains under extreme label scarcity, where they leverage neighborhood structure to compensate for limited supervision. Surprisingly, GCNs can match their original performance even when node features are replaced with random noise, suggesting that structure alone carries sufficient signal on highly homophilous graphs. However, GCNs hurt performance when homophily is low and features are already strong, as noisy neighbors corrupt good predictions. Our quadrant analysis reveals that GCNs help in three of four conditions and only hurt when low homophily meets strong features. These findings offer practical guidance for practitioners deciding whether to adopt graph-based methods.

This study evaluates thresholds for removing singular values from singular value decomposition-based low-rank approximations of deep neural network weight matrices. Each weight matrix is modeled as the sum of signal and noise matrices. The low-rank approximation is obtained by removing noise-related singular values using a threshold based on random matrix theory. To assess the adequacy of this threshold, we propose an evaluation metric based on the cosine similarity between the singular vectors of the signal and original weight matrices. The proposed metric is used in numerical experiments to compare two threshold estimation methods.

Linear Autoencoders (LAEs) have shown strong performance in state-of-the-art recommender systems. However, this success remains largely empirical, with limited theoretical understanding. In this paper, we investigate the generalizability -- a theoretical measure of model performance in statistical learning -- of multivariate linear regression and LAEs. We first propose a PAC-Bayes bound for multivariate linear regression, extending the earlier bound for single-output linear regression by Shalaeva et al., and establish sufficient conditions for its convergence. We then show that LAEs, when evaluated under a relaxed mean squared error, can be interpreted as constrained multivariate linear regression models on bounded data, to which our bound adapts. Furthermore, we develop theoretical methods to improve the computational efficiency of optimizing the LAE bound, enabling its practical evaluation on large models and real-world datasets. Experimental results demonstrate that our bound is tight and correlates well with practical ranking metrics such as Recall@K and NDCG@K.

Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC), Laplace approximation (LA) and variational inference (VI) methods are popular approaches to Bayesian inference, each with trade-offs between computational cost and accuracy. However, a theoretical understanding of these differences is missing, particularly when both the sample size $n$ and the dimension $d$ are large. LA and Gaussian VI are justified by Bernstein-von Mises (BvM) theorems, and recent work has derived the characteristic condition $n\gg d^2$ for their validity, improving over the condition $n\gg d^3$. In this paper, we show for linear, logistic and Poisson regression that for $n\gtrsim d$, MCMC attains the same complexity scaling in $n$, $d$ as first-order optimization algorithms, up to sub-polynomial factors. Thus MCMC is competitive with LA and Gaussian VI in complexity, under a scaling between $n$ and $d$ more general than BvM regimes. Our complexities apply to appropriately scaled priors that are not necessarily Gaussian-tailed, including Student-$t$ and flat priors, with log-posteriors that are not necessarily globally concave or gradient-Lipschitz.

We present a framework using variational inference with normalizing flows (VI-NFs) to generate proposals of reversible jump Markov chain Monte Carlo (RJMCMC) for efficient trans-dimensional Bayesian inference. Unlike transport reversible jump methods relying on forward KL minimization with pilot MCMC samples, our approach minimizes the reverse KL divergence which requires only samples from a base distribution, eliminating costly target sampling. The method employs RealNVP-based flows to learn model-specific transport maps, enabling construction of both between-model and within-model proposals. Our framework provides accurate marginal likelihood estimates from the variational approximation. This facilitates efficient model comparison and proposal adaptation in RJMCMC. Experiments on illustrative example, factor analysis and variable selection tasks in linear regression show that TRJ designed by VI-NFs achieves faster mixing and more efficient model space exploration compared to existing baselines. The proposed algorithm can be extended to conditional flows for amortized vairiational inference across models. Code is available at https://github.com/YinPingping111/TRJ_VINFs.

Machine learning (ML) methods are highly flexible, but their ability to approximate the true data-generating process is fundamentally constrained by finite samples. We characterize a universal lower bound, the Limits-to-Learning Gap (LLG), quantifying the unavoidable discrepancy between a model's empirical fit and the population benchmark. Recovering the true population $R^2$, therefore, requires correcting observed predictive performance by this bound. Using a broad set of variables, including excess returns, yields, credit spreads, and valuation ratios, we find that the implied LLGs are large. This indicates that standard ML approaches can substantially understate true predictability in financial data. We also derive LLG-based refinements to the classic Hansen and Jagannathan (1991) bounds, analyze implications for parameter learning in general-equilibrium settings, and show that the LLG provides a natural mechanism for generating excess volatility.