We introduce the novel task of identifying important citations in scholarly literature, i.e., citations that indicate that the cited work is used or extended in the new effort. We believe this task is a crucial component in algorithms that detect and follow research topics and in methods that measure the quality of publications.We model this task as a supervised classification problem at two levels of detail: a coarse one with classes (important vs. non-important), and a more detailed one with four importance classes. We annotate a dataset of approximately 450 citations with this information, and release it publicly. We propose a supervised classification approach that addresses this task with a battery of features that range from citation counts to where the citation appears in the body of the paper, and show that,our approach achieves a precision of 65% for a recall of 90%.

How can knowing the location of my friends be used to more accurately predict my location? This paper explores socially-aware location prediction under a particularly challenging setting where the underlying interactions and social network are unknown and must be inferred over continuous spatiotemporal data. Our method samples inferred network topology using a linear regression model to predict future individual locations. We present an in-depth empirical study comparing different network models and network sampling regimes under a bootstrapped sampling baseline. Furthermore, our qualitative analysis demonstrates the value of social information in population mobility modeling under our application’s challenges.

Since semantic trajectories can discover more semantic meanings of a user’s interests without geographic restrictions, research on semantic trajectories has attracted a lot of attentions in recent years. Most existing work discover the similar behavior of moving objects through analysis of their semantic trajectory pattern, that is, sequences of locations. However, this kind of trajectories without considering the duration of staying on a location limits wild applications. For example, Tom and Anne have a common pattern of Home Restaurant Company Restaurant , but they are not similar, since Tom works at Restaurant , sends snack to someone at Company and return to Restaurant while Anne has breakfast at Restaurant , works at Company and has lunch at Restaurant . If we consider duration of staying on each location we can easily to differentiate their behaviors. In this paper, we propose a novel approach for discovering common behaviors by considering the duration of staying on each location of trajectories (DoSTra). Our approach can be used to detect the group that has similar lifestyle, habit or behavior patterns and predict the future locations of moving objects. We evaluate the experiment based on synthetic dataset, which demonstrates the high effectiveness and efficiency of the proposed method.

Cities and their employment catchment areas are focus points of economic activity, transportation, and social interactions. The need for land use and transport inte- grated modelling (LUTI modelling) as a decision aid tool in urban planning, has become apparent. Instanti- ating such models on cities, requires a substantial data collection, model structuring and parameter estimation effort; for conciseness, the latter is referred to here as calibration. This work is a partial effort towards the integrated calibration of LUTI models. It considers one of the most widely used LUTI models and softwares, Tranus. The usual calibration approach for Tranus is briefly reviewed. It is then reformulated as an optimisa- tion problem, in order to make it amenable to the sys- tematic incorporation of constraints on parameters and additional data and to form a clear basis for future fully integrated calibration. The problem at hand concerns a dynamic system; an approach is shown how to “elimi- nate” parts of the dynamics in order to ease the param- eter optimisation. We also discuss how to validate cali- bration results and propose to use synthetic data gener- ated from real world problems in order to assess conver- gence properties and accuracy of calibration methods.

While great strides have been made in collecting presence data and developing accurate species distribution models, much less is known about the migratory process that guides the spatio-temporal changes in distributions for migrating species, especially birds. In this work, we address a challenging inference task, where given only aggregate and noisy data of the volume of birds for each spatial pixel and time window, we predict the likely transition links with their associated probabilities. We propose a framework to build such migration networks for different bird species and present a real world example of constructing a network using our approach.

Generalized Additive Models (GAM) are a widely popular class of regression models to forecast electricity demand, due to their high accuracy, flexibility and interpretability. However, the residuals of the fitted GAM are typically heteroscedastic and leptokurtic caused by the nature of energy data. In this paper we propose a novel approach to estimate the time-varying conditional variance of the GAM residuals, which we call the GAM2 algorithm. It allows utility companies and network operators to assess the uncertainty of future electricity demand and incorporate it into their planning processes. The basic idea of our algorithm is to apply another GAM to the squared residuals to explain the dependence of uncertainty on exogenous variables. Empirical evidence shows that the residuals rescaled by the estimated conditional variance are approximately normal. We combine our modeling approach with online learning algorithms that adjust for dynamic changes in the distributions of demand. We illustrate our method by a case study on data from RTE, the operator of the French transmission grid.

The task of computing approximate Nash equilibria in large zero-sum extensive-form games has received a tremendous amount of attention due mainly to the Annual Computer Poker Competition. Immediately after its inception, two competing and seemingly different approaches emerged---one an application of no-regret online learning, the other a sophisticated gradient method applied to a convex-concave saddle-point formulation. Since then, both approaches have grown in relative isolation with advancements on one side not effecting the other. In this paper, we rectify this by dissecting and, in a sense, unify the two views.

Quantifying biodiversity is an important task related to ecological research. One way to measure biodiversity is through species richness, which measures the number of unique species found in an area. Recently, citizen science biodiversity datasets such as eBird allow the calculation of species richness over an unprecedented spatial and temporal extent. However, several confounding factors associated with the unstructured observation process, such as observer effort, affect the number of species reported by citizen scientists. In this work, we develop an algorithm for discovering hotspots and coldspots of species richness using eBird data while accounting for these confounding factors.

Residential and commercial buildings are responsible for about 40% of primary energy consumption in the United States, hence improving their energy efficiency could have important sustainability benefits. The design of a building has tremendous effect on its energy profile, and recently there has been an increased interest in developing optimization methods that support the design of high performance buildings. Previous approaches are either based on simulation optimization or on training an accurate predictive model that is queried during the optimization. We propose a method that more tightly integrates the machine learning and optimization components, by employing active learning during optimization. In particular, we use a Gaussian Process (GP) model for the prediction and active learning and multi-objective genetic algorithm NSGA-II for the optimization. We develop a comprehensive and publicly available benchmark for building design optimization. We evaluate 5 machine learning approaches on our dataset, and show that the GP model is competitive, in addition to being well-suited for the active learning setting. We compare our optimization approach against the 2-stage approach and simulation optimization. Our results show that our approach produces solutions at the Pareto frontier compared to the other two approaches, while using only a fraction of the simulations and time.

We propose a novel online learning method for minimizing regret in large extensive-form games. The approach learns a function approximator online to estimate the regret for choosing a particular action. A no-regret algorithm uses these estimates in place of the true regrets to define a sequence of policies. We prove the approach sound by providing a bound relating the quality of the function approximation and regret of the algorithm. A corollary being that the method is guaranteed to converge to a Nash equilibrium in self-play so long as the regrets are ultimately realizable by the function approximator. Our technique can be understood as a principled generalization of existing work on abstraction in large games; in our work, both the abstraction as well as the equilibrium are learned during self-play. We demonstrate empirically the method achieves higher quality strategies than state-of-the-art abstraction techniques given the same resources.