Many practical modeling problems involve discrete data that are best represented as draws from multinomial or categorical distributions. For example, nucleotides in a DNA sequence, children's names in a given state and year, and text documents are all commonly modeled with multinomial distributions. In all of these cases, we expect some form of dependency between the draws: the nucleotide at one position in the DNA strand may depend on the preceding nucleotides, children's names are highly correlated from year to year, and topics in text may be correlated and dynamic. These dependencies are not naturally captured by the typical Dirichlet-multinomial formulation. Here, we leverage a logistic stick-breaking representation and recent innovations in P\'olya-gamma augmentation to reformulate the multinomial distribution in terms of latent variables with jointly Gaussian likelihoods, enabling us to take advantage of a host of Bayesian inference techniques for Gaussian models with minimal overhead.

We have recently proposed a new information-based approach to model selection, the Frequentist Information Criterion (FIC), that reconciles information-based and frequentist inference. The purpose of this current paper is to provide a simple example of the application of this criterion and a demonstration of the natural emergence of model complexities with both AIC-like ($N^0$) and BIC-like ($\log N$) scaling with observation number $N$. The application developed is deliberately simplified to make the analysis analytically tractable.

Forecasting a time series from multivariate predictors constitutes a challenging problem, especially using model-free approaches. Most techniques, such as nearest-neighbor prediction, quickly suffer from the curse of dimensionality and overfitting for more than a few predictors which has limited their application mostly to the univariate case. Therefore, selection strategies are needed that harness the available information as efficiently as possible. Since often the right combination of predictors matters, ideally all subsets of possible predictors should be tested for their predictive power, but the exponentially growing number of combinations makes such an approach computationally prohibitive. Here a prediction scheme that overcomes this strong limitation is introduced utilizing a causal pre-selection step which drastically reduces the number of possible predictors to the most predictive set of causal drivers making a globally optimal search scheme tractable. The information-theoretic optimality is derived and practical selection criteria are discussed. As demonstrated for multivariate nonlinear stochastic delay processes, the optimal scheme can even be less computationally expensive than commonly used sub-optimal schemes like forward selection. The method suggests a general framework to apply the optimal model-free approach to select variables and subsequently fit a model to further improve a prediction or learn statistical dependencies. The performance of this framework is illustrated on a climatological index of El Ni\~no Southern Oscillation.

Calculation of the log-normalizer is a major computational obstacle in applications of log-linear models with large output spaces. The problem of fast normalizer computation has therefore attracted significant attention in the theoretical and applied machine learning literature. In this paper, we analyze a recently proposed technique known as "self-normalization", which introduces a regularization term in training to penalize log normalizers for deviating from zero. This makes it possible to use unnormalized model scores as approximate probabilities. Empirical evidence suggests that self-normalization is extremely effective, but a theoretical understanding of why it should work, and how generally it can be applied, is largely lacking. We prove generalization bounds on the estimated variance of normalizers and upper bounds on the loss in accuracy due to self-normalization, describe classes of input distributions that self-normalize easily, and construct explicit examples of high-variance input distributions. Our theoretical results make predictions about the difficulty of fitting self-normalized models to several classes of distributions, and we conclude with empirical validation of these predictions.

Tensor methods have emerged as a powerful paradigm for consistent learning of many latent variable models such as topic models, independent component analysis and dictionary learning. Model parameters are estimated via CP decomposition of the observed higher order input moments. However, in many domains, additional invariances such as shift invariances exist, enforced via models such as convolutional dictionary learning. In this paper, we develop novel tensor decomposition algorithms for parameter estimation of convolutional models. Our algorithm is based on the popular alternating least squares method, but with efficient projections onto the space of stacked circulant matrices. Our method is embarrassingly parallel and consists of simple operations such as fast Fourier transforms and matrix multiplications. Our algorithm converges to the dictionary much faster and more accurately compared to the alternating minimization over filters and activation maps.

This paper considers the problem of estimating multiple related Gaussian graphical models from a $p$-dimensional dataset consisting of different classes. Our work is based upon the formulation of this problem as group graphical lasso. This paper proposes a novel hybrid covariance thresholding algorithm that can effectively identify zero entries in the precision matrices and split a large joint graphical lasso problem into small subproblems. Our hybrid covariance thresholding method is superior to existing uniform thresholding methods in that our method can split the precision matrix of each individual class using different partition schemes and thus split group graphical lasso into much smaller subproblems, each of which can be solved very fast. In addition, this paper establishes necessary and sufficient conditions for our hybrid covariance thresholding algorithm. The superior performance of our thresholding method is thoroughly analyzed and illustrated by a few experiments on simulated data and real gene expression data.

Learning the network structure underlying data is an important problem in machine learning. This paper introduces a novel prior to study the inference of scale-free networks, which are widely used to model social and biological networks. The prior not only favors a desirable global node degree distribution, but also takes into consideration the relative strength of all the possible edges adjacent to the same node and the estimated degree of each individual node. To fulfill this, ranking is incorporated into the prior, which makes the problem challenging to solve. We employ an ADMM (alternating direction method of multipliers) framework to solve the Gaussian Graphical model regularized by this prior. Our experiments on both synthetic and real data show that our prior not only yields a scale-free network, but also produces many more correctly predicted edges than the others such as the scale-free inducing prior, the hub-inducing prior and the $l_1$ norm.

In this paper we study the problem of minimizing the average of a large number ($n$) of smooth convex loss functions. We propose a new method, S2GD (Semi-Stochastic Gradient Descent), which runs for one or several epochs in each of which a single full gradient and a random number of stochastic gradients is computed, following a geometric law. The total work needed for the method to output an $\varepsilon$-accurate solution in expectation, measured in the number of passes over data, or equivalently, in units equivalent to the computation of a single gradient of the loss, is $O((\kappa/n)\log(1/\varepsilon))$, where $\kappa$ is the condition number. This is achieved by running the method for $O(\log(1/\varepsilon))$ epochs, with a single gradient evaluation and $O(\kappa)$ stochastic gradient evaluations in each. The SVRG method of Johnson and Zhang arises as a special case. If our method is limited to a single epoch only, it needs to evaluate at most $O((\kappa/\varepsilon)\log(1/\varepsilon))$ stochastic gradients. In contrast, SVRG requires $O(\kappa/\varepsilon^2)$ stochastic gradients. To illustrate our theoretical results, S2GD only needs the workload equivalent to about 2.1 full gradient evaluations to find an $10^{-6}$-accurate solution for a problem with $n=10^9$ and $\kappa=10^3$.

We introduce GAMSEL (Generalized Additive Model Selection), a penalized likelihood approach for fitting sparse generalized additive models in high dimension. Our method interpolates between null, linear and additive models by allowing the effect of each variable to be estimated as being either zero, linear, or a low-complexity curve, as determined by the data. We present a blockwise coordinate descent procedure for efficiently optimizing the penalized likelihood objective over a dense grid of the tuning parameter, producing a regularization path of additive models. We demonstrate the performance of our method on both real and simulated data examples, and compare it with existing techniques for additive model selection.

This paper generalizes an important result from the PAC-Bayesian literature for binary classification to the case of ensemble methods for structured outputs. We prove a generic version of the \Cbound, an upper bound over the risk of models expressed as a weighted majority vote that is based on the first and second statistical moments of the vote's margin. This bound may advantageously $(i)$ be applied on more complex outputs such as multiclass labels and multilabel, and $(ii)$ allow to consider margin relaxations. These results open the way to develop new ensemble methods for structured output prediction with PAC-Bayesian guarantees.