We consider an adversarial formulation of the problem of predicting a time series with square loss. The aim is to predict an arbitrary sequence of vectors almost as well as the best smooth comparator sequence in retrospect. Our approach allows naturalmeasures of smoothness such as the squared norm of increments. More generally, we consider a linear time series model and penalize the comparator sequencethrough the energy of the implied driving noise terms. We derive the minimax strategy for all problems of this type and show that it can be implemented efficiently.The optimal predictions are linear in the previous observations. We obtain an explicit expression for the regret in terms of the parameters defining the problem. For typical, simple definitions of smoothness, the computation of the optimal predictions involves only sparse matrices. In the case of norm-constrained data, where the smoothness is defined in terms of the squared norm of the comparator's increments,we show that the regret grows as T/ λ

We propose an exploratory approach to statistical model criticism using maximum mean discrepancy (MMD) two sample tests. Typical approaches to model criticism require a practitioner to select a statistic by which to measure discrepancies between data and a statistical model. MMD two sample tests are instead constructed as an analytic maximisation over a large space of possible statistics and therefore automatically select the statistic which most shows any discrepancy. We demonstrate on synthetic data that the selected statistic, called the witness function, can be used to identify where a statistical model most misrepresents the data it was trained on. We then apply the procedure to real data where the models being assessed are restricted Boltzmann machines, deep belief networks and Gaussian process regression and demonstrate the ways in which these models fail to capture the properties of the data they are trained on.

In past few years, several techniques have been proposed for training of linear Support Vector Machine (SVM) in limited-memory setting, where a dual block-coordinate descent (dual-BCD) method was used to balance cost spent on I/O and computation. In this paper, we consider the more general setting of regularized \emph{Empirical Risk Minimization (ERM)} when data cannot fit into memory. In particular, we generalize the existing block minimization framework based on strong duality and \emph{Augmented Lagrangian} technique to achieve global convergence for ERM with arbitrary convex loss function and regularizer. The block minimization framework is flexible in the sense that, given a solver working under sufficient memory, one can integrate it with the framework to obtain a solver globally convergent under limited-memory condition. We conduct experiments on L1-regularized classification and regression problems to corroborate our convergence theory and compare the proposed framework to algorithms adopted from online and distributed settings, which shows superiority of the proposed approach on data of size ten times larger than the memory capacity.

We study Nyström type subsampling approaches to large scale kernel methods, and prove learning bounds in the statistical learning setting, where random sampling andhigh probability estimates are considered. In particular, we prove that these approaches can achieve optimal learning bounds, provided the subsampling level is suitably chosen. These results suggest a simple incremental variant of Nyström Kernel Regularized Least Squares, where the subsampling level implements aform of computational regularization, in the sense that it controls at the same time regularization and computations. Extensive experimental analysis showsthat the considered approach achieves state of the art performances on benchmark large scale datasets.

We introduce a convolutional neural network that operates directly on graphs. These networks allow end-to-end learning of prediction pipelines whose inputs are graphs of arbitrary size and shape. The architecture we present generalizes standard molecular feature extraction methods based on circular fingerprints. We show that these data-driven features are more interpretable, and have better predictive performanceon a variety of tasks.

Space-time is a profound concept in physics. This concept was shown to be useful for dimensionality reduction. We present basic definitions with interesting counter-intuitions.We give theoretical propositions to show that space-time is a more powerful representation than Euclidean space. We apply this concept to manifold learning for preserving local information. Empirical results on nonmetric datasetsshow that more information can be preserved in space-time.

We investigate the robust PCA problem of decomposing an observed matrix into the sum of a low-rank and a sparse error matrices via convex programming Principal Component Pursuit (PCP). In contrast to previous studies that assume the support of the error matrix is generated by uniform Bernoulli sampling, we allow non-uniform sampling, i.e., entries of the low-rank matrix are corrupted by errors with unequal probabilities. We characterize conditions on error corruption of each individual entry based on the local incoherence of the low-rank matrix, under which correct matrix decomposition by PCP is guaranteed. Such a refined analysis of robust PCA captures how robust each entry of the low rank matrix combats error corruption. In order to deal with non-uniform error corruption, our technical proof introduces a new weighted norm and develops/exploits the concentration properties that such a norm satisfies.

We show that asymptotically, completely asynchronous stochastic gradient procedures achieve optimal (even to constant factors) convergence rates for the solution of convex optimization problems under nearly the same conditions required for asymptotic optimality of standard stochastic gradient procedures. Roughly, the noise inherent to the stochastic approximation scheme dominates any noise from asynchrony. We also give empirical evidence demonstrating the strong performance of asynchronous, parallel stochastic optimization schemes, demonstrating that the robustness inherent to stochastic approximation problems allows substantially faster parallel and asynchronous solution methods. In short, we show that for many stochastic approximation problems, as Freddie Mercury sings in Queen's \emph{Bohemian Rhapsody}, ``Nothing really matters.''

The modern scale of data has brought new challenges to Bayesian inference. In particular, conventional MCMC algorithms are computationally very expensive for large data sets. A promising approach to solve this problem is embarrassingly parallel MCMC (EP-MCMC), which first partitions the data into multiple subsets and runs independent sampling algorithms on each subset. The subset posterior draws are then aggregated via some combining rules to obtain the final approximation. Existing EP-MCMC algorithms are limited by approximation accuracy and difficulty in resampling. In this article, we propose a new EP-MCMC algorithm PART that solves these problems. The new algorithm applies random partition trees to combine the subset posterior draws, which is distribution-free, easy to resample from and can adapt to multiple scales. We provide theoretical justification and extensive experiments illustrating empirical performance.

Convex potential minimisation is the de facto approach to binary classification. However, Long and Servedio [2008] proved that under symmetric label noise (SLN), minimisation of any convex potential over a linear function class can result in classification performance equivalent to random guessing. This ostensibly shows that convex losses are not SLN-robust. In this paper, we propose a convex, classification-calibrated loss and prove that it is SLN-robust. The loss avoids the Long and Servedio [2008] result by virtue of being negatively unbounded. The loss is a modification of the hinge loss, where one does not clamp at zero; hence, we call it the unhinged loss. We show that the optimal unhinged solution is equivalent to that of a strongly regularised SVM, and is the limiting solution for any convex potential; this implies that strong l2 regularisation makes most standard learners SLN-robust. Experiments confirm the unhinged loss’ SLN-robustness.