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 Statistical Learning


Bibliographic Analysis with the Citation Network Topic Model

arXiv.org Machine Learning

Bibliographic analysis considers author's research areas, the citation network and paper content among other things. In this paper, we combine these three in a topic model that produces a bibliographic model of authors, topics and documents using a non-parametric extension of a combination of the Poisson mixed-topic link model and the author-topic model. We propose a novel and efficient inference algorithm for the model to explore subsets of research publications from CiteSeerX. Our model demonstrates improved performance in both model fitting and a clustering task compared to several baselines.


Robust Confidence Intervals in High-Dimensional Left-Censored Regression

arXiv.org Machine Learning

This paper develops robust confidence intervals in high-dimensional and left-censored regression. Type-I censored regression models are extremely common in practice, where a competing event makes the variable of interest unobservable. However, techniques developed for entirely observed data do not directly apply to the censored observations. In this paper, we develop smoothed estimating equations that augment the de-biasing method, such that the resulting estimator is adaptive to censoring and is more robust to the misspecification of the error distribution. We propose a unified class of robust estimators, including Mallow's, Schweppe's and Hill-Ryan's one-step estimator. In the ultra-high-dimensional setting, where the dimensionality can grow exponentially with the sample size, we show that as long as the preliminary estimator converges faster than $n^{-1/4}$, the one-step estimator inherits asymptotic distribution of fully iterated version. Moreover, we show that the size of the residuals of the Bahadur representation matches those of the simple linear models, $s^{3/4 } (\log (p \vee n))^{3/4} / n^{1/4}$ -- that is, the effects of censoring asymptotically disappear. Simulation studies demonstrate that our method is adaptive to the censoring level and asymmetry in the error distribution, and does not lose efficiency when the errors are from symmetric distributions. Finally, we apply the developed method to a real data set from the MAQC-II repository that is related to the HIV-1 study.


Multilayer Spectral Graph Clustering via Convex Layer Aggregation

arXiv.org Machine Learning

Multilayer graphs are commonly used for representing different relations between entities and handling heterogeneous data processing tasks. New challenges arise in multilayer graph clustering for assigning clusters to a common multilayer node set and for combining information from each layer. This paper presents a theoretical framework for multilayer spectral graph clustering of the nodes via convex layer aggregation. Under a novel multilayer signal plus noise model, we provide a phase transition analysis that establishes the existence of a critical value on the noise level that permits reliable cluster separation. The analysis also specifies analytical upper and lower bounds on the critical value, where the bounds become exact when the clusters have identical sizes. Numerical experiments on synthetic multilayer graphs are conducted to validate the phase transition analysis and study the effect of layer weights and noise levels on clustering reliability.


Bibliographic Analysis on Research Publications using Authors, Categorical Labels and the Citation Network

arXiv.org Machine Learning

Bibliographic analysis considers the author's research areas, the citation network and the paper content among other things. In this paper, we combine these three in a topic model that produces a bibliographic model of authors, topics and documents, using a nonparametric extension of a combination of the Poisson mixed-topic link model and the author-topic model. This gives rise to the Citation Network Topic Model (CNTM). We propose a novel and efficient inference algorithm for the CNTM to explore subsets of research publications from CiteSeerX. The publication datasets are organised into three corpora, totalling to about 168k publications with about 62k authors. The queried datasets are made available online. In three publicly available corpora in addition to the queried datasets, our proposed model demonstrates an improved performance in both model fitting and document clustering, compared to several baselines. Moreover, our model allows extraction of additional useful knowledge from the corpora, such as the visualisation of the author-topics network. Additionally, we propose a simple method to incorporate supervision into topic modelling to achieve further improvement on the clustering task.


Early Warning System for Seismic Events in Coal Mines Using Machine Learning

arXiv.org Machine Learning

N 2015, the mining industry in Poland reported 2158 dangerous incidents with 19 casualties and 12 severe injuries [1]. Underground mining work poses a number of threats including fires, methane outbreaks or seismic tremors and bumps. Monitoring and decision support systems might play an essential role in limiting the number of incidents and their prevention. Such systems, often based on machine learning or data mining techniques, can be effectively applied to lessen the danger to employees and prevent potential losses arising from lost and damaged equipment, see, e.g., [2], [3], [4]. In this paper, we present a model for predicting dangerous seismic events in coal mines.


Nonparametric Bayesian Topic Modelling with the Hierarchical Pitman-Yor Processes

arXiv.org Machine Learning

The Dirichlet process and its extension, the Pitman-Yor process, are stochastic processes that take probability distributions as a parameter. These processes can be stacked up to form a hierarchical nonparametric Bayesian model. In this article, we present efficient methods for the use of these processes in this hierarchical context, and apply them to latent variable models for text analytics. In particular, we propose a general framework for designing these Bayesian models, which are called topic models in the computer science community. We then propose a specific nonparametric Bayesian topic model for modelling text from social media. We focus on tweets (posts on Twitter) in this article due to their ease of access. We find that our nonparametric model performs better than existing parametric models in both goodness of fit and real world applications.


On Data-Independent Properties for Density-Based Dissimilarity Measures in Hybrid Clustering

arXiv.org Machine Learning

Hybrid clustering combines partitional and hierarchical clustering for computational effectiveness and versatility in cluster shape. In such clustering, a dissimilarity measure plays a crucial role in the hierarchical merging. The dissimilarity measure has great impact on the final clustering, and data-independent properties are needed to choose the right dissimilarity measure for the problem at hand. Properties for distance-based dissimilarity measures have been studied for decades, but properties for density-based dissimilarity measures have so far received little attention. Here, we propose six data-independent properties to evaluate density-based dissimilarity measures associated with hybrid clustering, regarding equality, orthogonality, symmetry, outlier and noise observations, and light-tailed models for heavy-tailed clusters. The significance of the properties is investigated, and we study some well-known dissimilarity measures based on Shannon entropy, misclassification rate, Bhattacharyya distance and Kullback-Leibler divergence with respect to the proposed properties. As none of them satisfy all the proposed properties, we introduce a new dissimilarity measure based on the Kullback-Leibler information and show that it satisfies all proposed properties. The effect of the proposed properties is also illustrated on several real and simulated data sets.


Network-regularized Sparse Logistic Regression Models for Clinical Risk Prediction and Biomarker Discovery

arXiv.org Machine Learning

Molecular profiling data (e.g., gene expression) has been used for clinical risk prediction and biomarker discovery. However, it is necessary to integrate other prior knowledge like biological pathways or gene interaction networks to improve the predictive ability and biological interpretability of biomarkers. Here, we first introduce a general regularized Logistic Regression (LR) framework with regularized term $\lambda \|\bm{w}\|_1 + \eta\bm{w}^T\bm{M}\bm{w}$, which can reduce to different penalties, including Lasso, elastic net, and network-regularized terms with different $\bm{M}$. This framework can be easily solved in a unified manner by a cyclic coordinate descent algorithm which can avoid inverse matrix operation and accelerate the computing speed. However, if those estimated $\bm{w}_i$ and $\bm{w}_j$ have opposite signs, then the traditional network-regularized penalty may not perform well. To address it, we introduce a novel network-regularized sparse LR model with a new penalty $\lambda \|\bm{w}\|_1 + \eta|\bm{w}|^T\bm{M}|\bm{w}|$ to consider the difference between the absolute values of the coefficients. And we develop two efficient algorithms to solve it. Finally, we test our methods and compare them with the related ones using simulated and real data to show their efficiency.


AMOS: An Automated Model Order Selection Algorithm for Spectral Graph Clustering

arXiv.org Machine Learning

The goal of graph clustering is to group the nodes into clusters of high similarity. Applications of graph clustering, also known as community detection [1, 2], include but are not limited to graph signal processing [3-11], multivariate data clustering [12-14], image segmentation [15, 16], and network vulnerability assessment [17]. Spectral clustering [12-14] is a popular method for graph clustering, which we refer to as spectral graph clustering (SGC). It works by transforming the graph adjacency matrix into a graph Laplacian matrix [18], computing its eigendecomposition, and performing K-means clustering [19] on the eigenvectors to partition the nodes into clusters. Although heuristic methods have been proposed to automatically select the number of clusters [12,13,20], rigorous theoretical justifications on the selection of the number of eigenvectors for clustering are still lacking and little is known about the capabilities and limitations of spectral clustering on graphs. Based on a recent development of clustering reliability analysis for SGC under the random interconnection model (RIM) [21], we propose a novel automated model order selection (AMOS) algorithm for SGC. AMOS works by incrementally increasing the number of clusters, estimating the quality of identified clusters, and providing a series of clustering reliability tests.


Clinical Tagging with Joint Probabilistic Models

arXiv.org Machine Learning

We describe a method for parameter estimation in bipartite probabilistic graphical models for joint prediction of clinical conditions from the electronic medical record. The method does not rely on the availability of gold-standard labels, but rather uses noisy labels, called anchors, for learning. We provide a likelihood-based objective and a moments-based initialization that are effective at learning the model parameters. The learned model is evaluated in a task of assigning a heldout clinical condition to patients based on retrospective analysis of the records, and outperforms baselines which do not account for the noisiness in the labels or do not model the conditions jointly.