Controlled interventions provide the most direct source of information for learning causal effects. In particular, a dose-response curve can be learned by varying the treatment level and observing the corresponding outcomes. However, interventions can be expensive and time-consuming. Observational data, where the treatment is not controlled by a known mechanism, is sometimes available. Under some strong assumptions, observational data allows for the estimation of dose-response curves. Estimating such curves nonparametrically is hard: sample sizes for controlled interventions may be small, while in the observational case a large number of measured confounders may need to be marginalized. In this paper, we introduce a hierarchical Gaussian process prior that constructs a distribution over the dose-response curve by learning from observational data, and reshapes the distribution with a nonparametric affine transform learned from controlled interventions. This function composition from different sources is shown to speed-up learning, which we demonstrate with a thorough sensitivity analysis and an application to modeling the effect of therapy on cognitive skills of premature infants.

It has recently been shown that supervised learning linear classifiers with two of the most popular losses, the logistic and square loss, is equivalent to optimizing an equivalent loss over sufficient statistics about the class: Rademacher observations (rados). It has also been shown that learning over rados brings solutions to two prominent problems for which the state of the art of learning from examples can be comparatively inferior and in fact less convenient: protecting and learning from private examples, learning from distributed datasets without entity resolution. Bis repetita placent: the two proofs of equivalence are different and rely on specific properties of the corresponding losses, so whether these can be unified and generalized inevitably comes to mind. This is our first contribution: we show how they can be fit into the same theory for the equivalence between example and rado losses. As a second contribution, we show that the generalization unveils a surprising new connection to regularized learning, and in particular a sufficient condition under which regularizing the loss over examples is equivalent to regularizing the rados (i.e. the data) in the equivalent rado loss, in such a way that an efficient algorithm for one regularized rado loss may be as efficient when changing the regularizer. This is our third contribution: we give a formal boosting algorithm for the regularized exponential rado-loss which boost with any of the ridge, lasso, \slope, l_\infty, or elastic nets, using the same master routine for all. Because the regularized exponential rado-loss is the equivalent of the regularized logistic loss over examples we obtain the first efficient proxy to the minimisation of the regularized logistic loss over examples using such a wide spectrum of regularizers. Experiments with a readily available code display that regularization significantly improves rado-based learning and compares favourably with example-based learning.

Given a task of predicting Y from X, a loss function L, and a set of probability distributions Gamma on (X,Y), what is the optimal decision rule minimizing the worst-case expected loss over Gamma? In this paper, we address this question by introducing a generalization of the maximum entropy principle. Applying this principle to sets of distributions with marginal on X constrained to be the empirical marginal, we provide a minimax interpretation of the maximum likelihood problem over generalized linear models as well as some popular regularization schemes. For quadratic and logarithmic loss functions we revisit well-known linear and logistic regression models. Moreover, for the 0-1 loss we derive a classifier which we call the minimax SVM. The minimax SVM minimizes the worst-case expected 0-1 loss over the proposed Gamma by solving a tractable optimization problem. We perform several numerical experiments to show the power of the minimax SVM in outperforming the SVM.

Tensor decomposition is positioned to be a pervasive tool in the era of big data. In this paper, we resolve many of the key algorithmic questions regarding robustness, memory efficiency, and differential privacy of tensor decomposition. We propose simple variants of the tensor power method which enjoy these strong properties. We propose the first streaming method with a linear memory requirement. Moreover, we present a noise calibrated tensor power method with efficient privacy guarantees. At the heart of all these guarantees lies a careful perturbation analysis derived in this paper which improves up on the existing results significantly.

We consider the problem of jointly inferring the $M$-best diverse labelings for a binary (high-order) submodular energy of a graphical model. Recently, it was shown that this problem can be solved to a global optimum, for many practically interesting diversity measures. It was noted that the labelings are, so-called, nested. This nestedness property also holds for labelings of a class of parametric submodular minimization problems, where different values of the global parameter $\gamma$ give rise to different solutions. The popular example of the parametric submodular minimization is the monotonic parametric max-flow problem, which is also widely used for computing multiple labelings. As the main contribution of this work we establish a close relationship between diversity with submodular energies and the parametric submodular minimization. In particular, the joint $M$-best diverse labelings can be obtained by running a non-parametric submodular minimization (in the special case - max-flow) solver for $M$ different values of $\gamma$ in parallel, for certain diversity measures. Importantly, the values for~$\gamma$ can be computed in a closed form in advance, prior to any optimization. These theoretical results suggest two simple yet efficient algorithms for the joint $M$-best diverse problem, which outperform competitors in terms of runtime and quality of results. In particular, as we show in the paper, the new methods compute the exact $M$-best diverse labelings faster than a popular method of Batra et al., which in some sense only obtains approximate solutions.

We present discriminative Gaifman models, a novel family of relational machine learning models. Gaifman models learn feature representations bottom up from representations of locally connected and bounded-size regions of knowledge bases (KBs). Considering local and bounded-size neighborhoods of knowledge bases renders logical inference and learning tractable, mitigates the problem of overfitting, and facilitates weight sharing. Gaifman models sample neighborhoods of knowledge bases so as to make the learned relational models more robust to missing objects and relations which is a common situation in open-world KBs. We present the core ideas of Gaifman models and apply them to large-scale relational learning problems. We also discuss the ways in which Gaifman models relate to some existing relational machine learning approaches.

In many applications of black-box optimization, one can evaluate multiple points simultaneously, e.g. when evaluating the performances of several different neural network architectures in a parallel computing environment. In this paper, we develop a novel batch Bayesian optimization algorithm --- the parallel knowledge gradient method. By construction, this method provides the one-step Bayes optimal batch of points to sample. We provide an efficient strategy for computing this Bayes-optimal batch of points, and we demonstrate that the parallel knowledge gradient method finds global optima significantly faster than previous batch Bayesian optimization algorithms on both synthetic test functions and when tuning hyperparameters of practical machine learning algorithms, especially when function evaluations are noisy.

In many scientific and engineering applications, we are tasked with the optimisation of an expensive to evaluate black box function f. Traditional methods for this problem assume just the availability of this single function. However, in many cases, cheap approximations to f may be obtainable. For example, the expensive real world behaviour of a robot can be approximated by a cheap computer simulation. We can use these approximations to eliminate low function value regions cheaply and use the expensive evaluations of f in a small but promising region and speedily identify the optimum. We formalise this task as a multi-fidelity bandit problem where the target function and its approximations are sampled from a Gaussian process. We develop MF-GP-UCB, a novel method based on upper confidence bound techniques. In our theoretical analysis we demonstrate that it exhibits precisely the above behaviour, and achieves better regret than strategies which ignore multi-fidelity information. MF-GP-UCB outperforms such naive strategies and other multi-fidelity methods on several synthetic and real experiments.

Probabilistic graphical models have been widely used to model complex systems and aid scientific discoveries. As a result, there is a large body of literature focused on consistent model selection. However, scientists are often interested in understanding uncertainty associated with the estimated parameters, which current literature has not addressed thoroughly. In this paper, we propose a novel estimator for edge parameters for pairwise graphical models based on Hyv\"arinen scoring rule. Hyv\"arinen scoring rule is especially useful in cases where the normalizing constant cannot be obtained efficiently in a closed form. We prove that the estimator is $\sqrt{n}$-consistent and asymptotically Normal. This result allows us to construct confidence intervals for edge parameters, as well as, hypothesis tests. We establish our results under conditions that are typically assumed in the literature for consistent estimation. However, we do not require that the estimator consistently recovers the graph structure. In particular, we prove that the asymptotic distribution of the estimator is robust to model selection mistakes and uniformly valid for a large number of data-generating processes. We illustrate validity of our estimator through extensive simulation studies.

We introduce the Multiple Quantile Graphical Model (MQGM), which extends the neighborhood selection approach of Meinshausen and Buhlmann for learning sparse graphical models. The latter is defined by the basic subproblem of modeling the conditional mean of one variable as a sparse function of all others. Our approach models a set of conditional quantiles of one variable as a sparse function of all others, and hence offers a much richer, more expressive class of conditional distribution estimates. We establish that, under suitable regularity conditions, the MQGM identifies the exact conditional independencies with probability tending to one as the problem size grows, even outside of the usual homoskedastic Gaussian data model. We develop an efficient algorithm for fitting the MQGM using the alternating direction method of multipliers. We also describe a strategy for sampling from the joint distribution that underlies the MQGM estimate. Lastly, we present detailed experiments that demonstrate the flexibility and effectiveness of the MQGM in modeling hetereoskedastic non-Gaussian data.