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 Statistical Learning


Handling imbalanced dataset in supervised learning using family of SMOTE algorithm.

#artificialintelligence

The algorithm adaptively updates the distribution and there are no assumptions made for the underlying distribution of the data. The algorithm uses Euclidean distance for KNN Algorithm. The key difference between ADASYN and SMOTE is that the former uses a density distribution, as a criterion to automatically decide the number of synthetic samples that must be generated for each minority sample by adaptively changing the weights of the different minority samples to compensate for the skewed distributions. The latter generates the same number of synthetic samples for each original minority sample.


A Tube-and-Droplet-based Approach for Representing and Analyzing Motion Trajectories

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Trajectory analysis is essential in many applications. In this paper, we address the problem of representing motion trajectories in a highly informative way, and consequently utilize it for analyzing trajectories. Our approach first leverages the complete information from given trajectories to construct a thermal transfer field which provides a context-rich way to describe the global motion pattern in a scene. Then, a 3D tube is derived which depicts an input trajectory by integrating its surrounding motion patterns contained in the thermal transfer field. The 3D tube effectively: 1) maintains the movement information of a trajectory, 2) embeds the complete contextual motion pattern around a trajectory, 3) visualizes information about a trajectory in a clear and unified way. We further introduce a droplet-based process. It derives a droplet vector from a 3D tube, so as to characterize the high-dimensional 3D tube information in a simple but effective way. Finally, we apply our tube-and-droplet representation to trajectory analysis applications including trajectory clustering, trajectory classification & abnormality detection, and 3D action recognition. Experimental comparisons with state-of-the-art algorithms demonstrate the effectiveness of our approach.


Converting High-Dimensional Regression to High-Dimensional Conditional Density Estimation

arXiv.org Machine Learning

There is a growing demand for nonparametric conditional density estimators (CDEs) in fields such as astronomy and economics. In astronomy, for example, one can dramatically improve estimates of the parameters that dictate the evolution of the Universe by working with full conditional densities instead of regression (i.e., conditional mean) estimates. More generally, standard regression falls short in any prediction problem where the distribution of the response is more complex with multi-modality, asymmetry or heteroscedastic noise. Nevertheless, much of the work on high-dimensional inference concerns regression and classification only, whereas research on density estimation has lagged behind. Here we propose FlexCode, a fully nonparametric approach to conditional density estimation that reformulates CDE as a non-parametric orthogonal series problem where the expansion coefficients are estimated by regression. By taking such an approach, one can efficiently estimate conditional densities and not just expectations in high dimensions by drawing upon the success in high-dimensional regression. Depending on the choice of regression procedure, our method can adapt to a variety of challenging high-dimensional settings with different structures in the data (e.g., a large number of irrelevant components and nonlinear manifold structure) as well as different data types (e.g., functional data, mixed data types and sample sets). We study the theoretical and empirical performance of our proposed method, and we compare our approach with traditional conditional density estimators on simulated as well as real-world data, such as photometric galaxy data, Twitter data, and line-of-sight velocities in a galaxy cluster.


Multimodal Word Distributions

arXiv.org Machine Learning

Word embeddings provide point representations of words containing useful semantic information. We introduce multimodal word distributions formed from Gaussian mixtures, for multiple word meanings, entailment, and rich uncertainty information. To learn these distributions, we propose an energy-based max-margin objective. We show that the resulting approach captures uniquely expressive semantic information, and outperforms alternatives, such as word2vec skip-grams, and Gaussian embeddings, on benchmark datasets such as word similarity and entailment.


SOFAR: large-scale association network learning

arXiv.org Machine Learning

Many modern big data applications feature large scale in both numbers of responses and predictors. Better statistical efficiency and scientific insights can be enabled by understanding the large-scale response-predictor association network structures via layers of sparse latent factors ranked by importance. Yet sparsity and orthogonality have been two largely incompatible goals. To accommodate both features, in this paper we suggest the method of sparse orthogonal factor regression (SOFAR) via the sparse singular value decomposition with orthogonality constrained optimization to learn the underlying association networks, with broad applications to both unsupervised and supervised learning tasks such as biclustering with sparse singular value decomposition, sparse principal component analysis, sparse factor analysis, and spare vector autoregression analysis. Exploiting the framework of convexity-assisted nonconvex optimization, we derive nonasymptotic error bounds for the suggested procedure characterizing the theoretical advantages. The statistical guarantees are powered by an efficient SOFAR algorithm with convergence property. Both computational and theoretical advantages of our procedure are demonstrated with several simulation and real data examples.


Pruning variable selection ensembles

arXiv.org Machine Learning

In the context of variable selection, ensemble learning has gained increasing interest due to its great potential to improve selection accuracy and to reduce false discovery rate. A novel ordering-based selective ensemble learning strategy is designed in this paper to obtain smaller but more accurate ensembles. In particular, a greedy sorting strategy is proposed to rearrange the order by which the members are included into the integration process. Through stopping the fusion process early, a smaller subensemble with higher selection accuracy can be obtained. More importantly, the sequential inclusion criterion reveals the fundamental strength-diversity trade-off among ensemble members. By taking stability selection (abbreviated as StabSel) as an example, some experiments are conducted with both simulated and real-world data to examine the performance of the novel algorithm. Experimental results demonstrate that pruned StabSel generally achieves higher selection accuracy and lower false discovery rates than StabSel and several other benchmark methods.


Accelerating Stochastic Gradient Descent

arXiv.org Machine Learning

There is widespread sentiment that it is not possible to effectively utilize fast gradient methods (e.g. Nesterov's acceleration, conjugate gradient, heavy ball) for the purposes of stochastic optimization due to their instability and error accumulation, a notion made precise in d'Aspremont 2008 and Devolder, Glineur, and Nesterov 2014. This work considers these issues for the special case of stochastic approximation for the least squares regression problem, and our main result refutes the conventional wisdom by showing that acceleration can be made robust to statistical errors. In particular, this work introduces an accelerated stochastic gradient method that provably achieves the minimax optimal statistical risk faster than stochastic gradient descent. Critical to the analysis is a sharp characterization of accelerated stochastic gradient descent as a stochastic process. We hope this characterization gives insights towards the broader question of designing simple and effective accelerated stochastic methods for more general convex and non-convex optimization problems.


Exploiting random projections and sparsity with random forests and gradient boosting methods -- Application to multi-label and multi-output learning, random forest model compression and leveraging input sparsity

arXiv.org Machine Learning

Within machine learning, the supervised learning field aims at modeling the input-output relationship of a system, from past observations of its behavior. Decision trees characterize the input-output relationship through a series of nested $if-then-else$ questions, the testing nodes, leading to a set of predictions, the leaf nodes. Several of such trees are often combined together for state-of-the-art performance: random forest ensembles average the predictions of randomized decision trees trained independently in parallel, while tree boosting ensembles train decision trees sequentially to refine the predictions made by the previous ones. The emergence of new applications requires scalable supervised learning algorithms in terms of computational power and memory space with respect to the number of inputs, outputs, and observations without sacrificing accuracy. In this thesis, we identify three main areas where decision tree methods could be improved for which we provide and evaluate original algorithmic solutions: (i) learning over high dimensional output spaces, (ii) learning with large sample datasets and stringent memory constraints at prediction time and (iii) learning over high dimensional sparse input spaces.


A Flexible Framework for Hypothesis Testing in High-dimensions

arXiv.org Machine Learning

Hypothesis testing in the linear regression model is a fundamental statistical problem. We consider linear regression in the high-dimensional regime where the number of parameters exceeds the number of samples ($p> n$) and assume that the high-dimensional parameters vector is $s_0$ sparse. We develop a general and flexible $\ell_\infty$ projection statistic for hypothesis testing in this model. Our framework encompasses testing whether the parameter lies in a convex cone, testing the signal strength, testing arbitrary functionals of the parameter, and testing adaptive hypothesis. We show that the proposed procedure controls the type I error under the standard assumption of $s_0 (\log p)/\sqrt{n}\to 0$, and also analyze the power of the procedure. Our numerical experiments confirms our theoretical findings and demonstrate that we control false positive rate (type I error) near the nominal level, and have high power.


Analytics in banking: Time to realize the value McKinsey & Company

#artificialintelligence

Results like these are the good news about analytics. But they are also the bad news. While many such projects generate eye-popping returns on investment, banks find it difficult to scale them up; the financial impact from even several great analytics efforts is often insignificant for the enterprise P&L. Some executives are even concluding that while analytics may be a welcome addition to certain activities, the difficulties in scaling it up mean that, at best, it will be only a sideline to the traditional businesses of financing, investments, and transactions and payments. Analytics can involve much more than just a set of discrete projects.