In this study, we introduce a sophisticated generative conditional strategy designed to impute missing values within datasets, an area of considerable importance in statistical analysis. Specifically, we initially elucidate the theoretical underpinnings of the Generative Conditional Missing Imputation Networks (GCMI), demonstrating its robust properties in the context of the Missing Completely at Random (MCAR) and the Missing at Random (MAR) mechanisms. Subsequently, we enhance the robustness and accuracy of GCMI by integrating a multiple imputation framework using a chained equations approach. This innovation serves to bolster model stability and improve imputation performance significantly. Finally, through a series of meticulous simulations and empirical assessments utilizing benchmark datasets, we establish the superior efficacy of our proposed methods when juxtaposed with other leading imputation techniques currently available. This comprehensive evaluation not only underscores the practicality of GCMI but also affirms its potential as a leading-edge tool in the field of statistical data analysis.

Existing methods of vector autoregressive model for multivariate time series analysis make use of low-rank matrix approximation or Tucker decomposition to reduce the dimension of the over-parameterization issue. In this paper, we propose a sparse Tucker decomposition method with graph regularization for high-dimensional vector autoregressive time series. By stacking the time-series transition matrices into a third-order tensor, the sparse Tucker decomposition is employed to characterize important interactions within the transition third-order tensor and reduce the number of parameters. Moreover, the graph regularization is employed to measure the local consistency of the response, predictor and temporal factor matrices in the vector autoregressive model.The two proposed regularization techniques can be shown to more accurate parameters estimation. A non-asymptotic error bound of the estimator of the proposed method is established, which is lower than those of the existing matrix or tensor based methods. A proximal alternating linearized minimization algorithm is designed to solve the resulting model and its global convergence is established under very mild conditions. Extensive numerical experiments on synthetic data and real-world datasets are carried out to verify the superior performance of the proposed method over existing state-of-the-art methods.

Identification and Estimation under Multiple Versions of Treatment: Mixture-of-Experts Approach Kohei Y oshikawa Shuichi Kawano January 5, 2026 Abstract The Stable Unit Treatment Value Assumption (SUTV A) includes the condition that there are no multiple versions of treatment in causal inference. Though we could not control the implementation of treatment in observational studies, multiple versions may exist in the treatment. It has been pointed out that ignoring such multiple versions of treatment can lead to biased estimates of causal effects, but a causal inference framework that explicitly deals with the unbiased identification and estimation of version-specific causal effects has not been fully developed yet. Thus, obtaining a deeper understanding for mechanisms of the complex treatments is difficult. In this paper, we introduce the Mixture-of-Experts framework into causal inference and develop a methodology for estimating the causal effects of latent versions. This approach enables explicit estimation of version-specific causal effects even if the versions are not observed. Numerical experiments demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed method. Keywords causal inference multiple versions of treatment compound treatments mixture-of-experts EM algorithm 1 Introduction In the theory of causal inference, a fundamental starting point is the potential outcomes framework since Rubin (1980), whose core assumption is the Stable Unit Treatment Value Assumption (SUTV A).

Detecting unobserved confounders is crucial for reliable causal inference in observational studies. Existing methods require either linearity assumptions or multiple heterogeneous environments, limiting applicability to nonlinear single-environment settings. To bridge this gap, we propose Kernel Regression Confounder Detection (KRCD), a novel method for detecting unobserved confounding in nonlinear observational data under single-environment conditions. KRCD leverages reproducing kernel Hilbert spaces to model complex dependencies. By comparing standard and higherorder kernel regressions, we derive a test statistic whose significant deviation from zero indicates unobserved confounding. Theoretically, we prove two key results: First, in infinite samples, regression coefficients coincide if and only if no unobserved confounders exist. Second, finite-sample differences converge to zero-mean Gaussian distributions with tractable variance. Extensive experiments on synthetic benchmarks and the Twins dataset demonstrate that KRCD not only outperforms existing baselines but also achieves superior computational efficiency.

We introduce \textit{basic inequalities} for first-order iterative optimization algorithms, forming a simple and versatile framework that connects implicit and explicit regularization. While related inequalities appear in the literature, we isolate and highlight a specific form and develop it as a well-rounded tool for statistical analysis. Let $f$ denote the objective function to be optimized. Given a first-order iterative algorithm initialized at $θ_0$ with current iterate $θ_T$, the basic inequality upper bounds $f(θ_T)-f(z)$ for any reference point $z$ in terms of the accumulated step sizes and the distances between $θ_0$, $θ_T$, and $z$. The bound translates the number of iterations into an effective regularization coefficient in the loss function. We demonstrate this framework through analyses of training dynamics and prediction risk bounds. In addition to revisiting and refining known results on gradient descent, we provide new results for mirror descent with Bregman divergence projection, for generalized linear models trained by gradient descent and exponentiated gradient descent, and for randomized predictors. We illustrate and supplement these theoretical findings with experiments on generalized linear models.

Stochastic gradient Langevin dynamics and its variants approximate the likelihood of an entire dataset, via random (and typically much smaller) subsets, in the setting of Bayesian sampling. Due to the (often substantial) improvement of the computational efficiency, they have been widely used in large-scale machine learning applications. It has been demonstrated that the so-called covariance-controlled adaptive Langevin (CCAdL) thermostat, which incorporates an additional term involving the covariance matrix of the noisy force, outperforms popular alternative methods. A moving average is used in CCAdL to estimate the covariance matrix of the noisy force, in which case the covariance matrix will converge to a constant matrix in long-time limit. Moreover, it appears in our numerical experiments that the use of a moving average could reduce the stability of the numerical integrators, thereby limiting the largest usable stepsize. In this article, we propose a modified CCAdL (i.e., mCCAdL) thermostat that uses the scaling part of the scaling and squaring method together with a truncated Taylor series approximation to the exponential to numerically approximate the exact solution to the subsystem involving the additional term proposed in CCAdL. We also propose a symmetric splitting method for mCCAdL, instead of an Euler-type discretisation used in the original CCAdL thermostat. We demonstrate in our numerical experiments that the newly proposed mCCAdL thermostat achieves a substantial improvement in the numerical stability over the original CCAdL thermostat, while significantly outperforming popular alternative stochastic gradient methods in terms of the numerical accuracy for large-scale machine learning applications.

High-dimensional learning problems, where the number of features exceeds the sample size, often require sparse regularization for effective prediction and variable selection. While established for fully supervised data, these techniques remain underexplored in weak-supervision settings such as Positive-Confidence (Pconf) classification. Pconf learning utilizes only positive samples equipped with confidence scores, thereby avoiding the need for negative data. However, existing Pconf methods are ill-suited for high-dimensional regimes. This paper proposes a novel sparse-penalization framework for high-dimensional Pconf classification. We introduce estimators using convex (Lasso) and non-convex (SCAD, MCP) penalties to address shrinkage bias and improve feature recovery. Theoretically, we establish estimation and prediction error bounds for the L1-regularized Pconf estimator, proving it achieves near minimax-optimal sparse recovery rates under Restricted Strong Convexity condition. To solve the resulting composite objective, we develop an efficient proximal gradient algorithm. Extensive simulations demonstrate that our proposed methods achieve predictive performance and variable selection accuracy comparable to fully supervised approaches, effectively bridging the gap between weak supervision and high-dimensional statistics.

We study the problem of estimating the score function using both implicit score matching and denoising score matching. Assuming that the data distribution exhibiting a low-dimensional structure, we prove that implicit score matching is able not only to adapt to the intrinsic dimension, but also to achieve the same rates of convergence as denoising score matching in terms of the sample size. Furthermore, we demonstrate that both methods allow us to estimate log-density Hessians without the curse of dimensionality by simple differentiation. This justifies convergence of ODE-based samplers for generative diffusion models. Our approach is based on Gagliardo-Nirenberg-type inequalities relating weighted $L^2$-norms of smooth functions and their derivatives.

Sampling based on score diffusions has led to striking empirical results, and has attracted considerable attention from various research communities. It depends on availability of (approximate) Stein score functions for various levels of additive noise. We describe and analyze a modular scheme that reduces score-based sampling to solving a short sequence of ``nice'' sampling problems, for which high-accuracy samplers are known. We show how to design forward trajectories such that both (a) the terminal distribution, and (b) each of the backward conditional distribution is defined by a strongly log concave (SLC) distribution. This modular reduction allows us to exploit \emph{any} SLC sampling algorithm in order to traverse the backwards path, and we establish novel guarantees with short proofs for both uni-modal and multi-modal densities. The use of high-accuracy routines yields $\varepsilon$-accurate answers, in either KL or Wasserstein distances, with polynomial dependence on $\log(1/\varepsilon)$ and $\sqrt{d}$ dependence on the dimension.

The balanced loss is a widely adopted objective for multi-class classification under class imbalance. By assigning equal importance to all classes, regardless of their frequency, it promotes fairness and ensures that minority classes are not overlooked. However, directly minimizing the balanced classification loss is typically intractable, which makes the design of effective surrogate losses a central question. This paper introduces and studies two advanced surrogate loss families: Generalized Logit-Adjusted (GLA) loss functions and Generalized Class-Aware weighted (GCA) losses. GLA losses generalize Logit-Adjusted losses, which shift logits based on class priors, to the broader general cross-entropy loss family. GCA loss functions extend the standard class-weighted losses, which scale losses inversely by class frequency, by incorporating class-dependent confidence margins and extending them to the general cross-entropy family. We present a comprehensive theoretical analysis of consistency for both loss families. We show that GLA losses are Bayes-consistent, but only $H$-consistent for complete (i.e., unbounded) hypothesis sets. Moreover, their $H$-consistency bounds depend inversely on the minimum class probability, scaling at least as $1/\mathsf p_{\min}$. In contrast, GCA losses are $H$-consistent for any hypothesis set that is bounded or complete, with $H$-consistency bounds that scale more favorably as $1/\sqrt{\mathsf p_{\min}}$, offering significantly stronger theoretical guarantees in imbalanced settings. We report the results of experiments demonstrating that, empirically, both the GCA losses with calibrated class-dependent confidence margins and GLA losses can greatly outperform straightforward class-weighted losses as well as the LA losses. GLA generally performs slightly better in common benchmarks, whereas GCA exhibits a slight edge in highly imbalanced settings.