We study a two-level multiview learning with more than two views under the PAC-Bayesian framework. This approach, sometimes referred as late fusion, consists in learning sequentially multiple view-specific classifiers at the first level, and then combining these view-specific classifiers at the second level. Our main theoretical result is a generalization bound on the risk of the majority vote which exhibits a term of diversity in the predictions of the view-specific classifiers. From this result it comes out that controlling the trade-off between diversity and accuracy is a key element for multiview learning, which complements other results in multiview learning. Finally, we experiment our principle on multiview datasets extracted from the Reuters RCV1/RCV2 collection.

Prediction in a small-sized sample with a large number of covariates, the "small n, large p" problem, is challenging. This setting is encountered in multiple applications, such as precision medicine, where obtaining additional samples can be extremely costly or even impossible, and extensive research effort has recently been dedicated to finding principled solutions for accurate prediction. However, a valuable source of additional information, domain experts, has not yet been efficiently exploited. We formulate knowledge elicitation generally as a probabilistic inference process, where expert knowledge is sequentially queried to improve predictions. In the specific case of sparse linear regression, where we assume the expert has knowledge about the values of the regression coefficients or about the relevance of the features, we propose an algorithm and computational approximation for fast and efficient interaction, which sequentially identifies the most informative features on which to query expert knowledge. Evaluations of our method in experiments with simulated and real users show improved prediction accuracy already with a small effort from the expert.

Random forests are among the most popular classification and regression methods used in industrial applications. To be effective, the parameters of random forests must be carefully tuned. This is usually done by choosing values that minimize the prediction error on a held out dataset. We argue that error reduction is only one of several metrics that must be considered when optimizing random forest parameters for commercial applications. We propose a novel metric that captures the stability of random forests predictions, which we argue is key for scenarios that require successive predictions. We motivate the need for multi-criteria optimization by showing that in practical applications, simply choosing the parameters that lead to the lowest error can introduce unnecessary costs and produce predictions that are not stable across independent runs. To optimize this multi-criteria trade-off, we present a new framework that efficiently finds a principled balance between these three considerations using Bayesian optimisation. The pitfalls of optimising forest parameters purely for error reduction are demonstrated using two publicly available real world datasets. We show that our framework leads to parameter settings that are markedly different from the values discovered by error reduction metrics.

Engineers widely use Gaussian process regression framework to construct surrogate models aimed to replace computationally expensive physical models while exploring design space. Thanks to Gaussian process properties we can use both samples generated by a high fidelity function (an expensive and accurate representation of a physical phenomenon) and a low fidelity function (a cheap and coarse approximation of the same physical phenomenon) while constructing a surrogate model. However, if samples sizes are more than few thousands of points, computational costs of the Gaussian process regression become prohibitive both in case of learning and in case of prediction calculation. We propose two approaches to circumvent this computational burden: one approach is based on the Nystr\"om approximation of sample covariance matrices and another is based on an intelligent usage of a blackbox that can evaluate a~low fidelity function on the fly at any point of a design space. We examine performance of the proposed approaches using a number of artificial and real problems, including engineering optimization of a rotating disk shape.

Subsurface applications including geothermal, geological carbon sequestration, oil and gas, etc., typically involve maximizing either the extraction of energy or the storage of fluids. Characterizing the subsurface is extremely complex due to heterogeneity and anisotropy. Due to this complexity, there are uncertainties in the subsurface parameters, which need to be estimated from multiple diverse as well as fragmented data streams. In this paper, we present a non-intrusive sequential inversion framework, for integrating data from geophysical and flow sources to constraint subsurface Discrete Fracture Networks (DFN). In this approach, we first estimate bounds on the statistics for the DFN fracture orientations using microseismic data. These bounds are estimated through a combination of a focal mechanism (physics-based approach) and clustering analysis (statistical approach) of seismic data. Then, the fracture lengths are constrained based on the flow data. The efficacy of this multi-physics based sequential inversion is demonstrated through a representative synthetic example.

Mixture-of-experts (MoE) models are a powerful paradigm for modeling of data arising from complex data generating processes (DGPs). In this article, we demonstrate how different MoE models can be constructed to approximate the underlying DGPs of arbitrary types of data. Due to the probabilistic nature of MoE models, we propose the maximum quasi-likelihood (MQL) estimator as a method for estimating MoE model parameters from data, and we provide conditions under which MQL estimators are consistent and asymptotically normal. The blockwise minorization-maximizatoin (blockwise-MM) algorithm framework is proposed as an all-purpose method for constructing algorithms for obtaining MQL estimators. An example derivation of a blockwise-MM algorithm is provided. We then present a method for constructing information criteria for estimating the number of components in MoE models and provide justification for the classic Bayesian information criterion (BIC). We explain how MoE models can be used to conduct classification, clustering, and regression and we illustrate these applications via a pair of worked examples.

While Bayesian methods are praised for their ability to incorporate useful prior knowledge, in practice, convenient priors that allow for computationally cheap or tractable inference are commonly used. In this paper, we investigate the following question: for a given model, is it possible to compute an inference result with any convenient false prior, and afterwards, given any target prior of interest, quickly transform this result into the target posterior? A potential solution is to use importance sampling (IS). However, we demonstrate that IS will fail for many choices of the target prior, depending on its parametric form and similarity to the false prior. Instead, we propose prior swapping, a method that leverages the pre-inferred false posterior to efficiently generate accurate posterior samples under arbitrary target priors. Prior swapping lets us apply less-costly inference algorithms to certain models, and incorporate new or updated prior information "post-inference". We give theoretical guarantees about our method, and demonstrate it empirically on a number of models and priors.

Generally, accurate prediction of the minor class is crucial but it's hard to achieve since there is not much information about the minor class. One approach to deal with this problem is to preliminarily resample the dataset, i.e., add new elements to the dataset or remove existing ones. Resampling can be done in various ways which raises the problem of choosing the most appropriate one. In this paper we experimentally investigate impact of resampling on classification accuracy, compare resampling methods and highlight key points and difficulties of resampling.

Gradient Descent, and its variants, are a popular method for solving empirical risk minimization problems in machine learning. However, if the size of the training set is large, a computational bottleneck is the computation of the gradient, and hence, it is common to distribute the training set among worker nodes. Doing this in a synchronous fashion faces yet another challenge of stragglers (i.e., slow or unavailable nodes) which might cause a considerable delay, and hence, schemes for mitigation of stragglers are essential. It was recently shown by Tandon et al. that stragglers can be avoided by carefully assigning redundant computations to the worker nodes and coding across partial gradients, and a randomized construction for the coding was given. In this paper we obtain a comparable deterministic scheme by employing cyclic MDS codes. In addition, we propose replacing the exact computation of the gradient with an approximate one; a technique which drastically increases the straggler tolerance, and stems from adjacency matrices of expander graphs.

System call streams are enormous, and an efficient representation with performance guarantees independent of the level of activity on the host must be used. Some earlier work was based on processing of sequential streams of system calls [1], [2], which does not scale well -- a single process can produce tens of thousands system calls per second, with hundreds of processes running on each host, or end point. Other approaches rely on computing frequencies of short sequences (n-grams) of system calls over a fixed time window [3], [4]. However, in this case information about temporal dynamics of the process is lost. Further on, both from security and performance points of view some of the processing is sent from the monitored host to the monitoring server -- a different machine, dedicated to the monitoring task. This poses additional restrictions on the amount of data which can be collected: on the one hand, the network load must stay within the allowed limits; on the other hand, the machine executing the monitoring task must be able to process data from multiple hosts in the network. In this paper we introduce a new methodology for monitoring networked computer systems based on system calls.