Real-time advertising allows advertisers to bid for each impression for a visiting user. To optimize a specific goal such as maximizing the revenue led by ad placements, advertisers not only need to estimate the relevance between the ads and user's interests, but most importantly require a strategic response with respect to other advertisers bidding in the market. In this paper, we formulate bidding optimization with multi-agent reinforcement learning. To deal with a large number of advertisers, we propose a clustering method and assign each cluster with a strategic bidding agent. A practical Distributed Coordinated Multi-Agent Bidding (DCMAB) has been proposed and implemented to balance the tradeoff between the competition and cooperation among advertisers. The empirical study on our industry-scaled real-world data has demonstrated the effectiveness of our modeling methods. Our results show that a cluster based bidding would largely outperform single-agent and bandit approaches, and the coordinated bidding achieves better overall objectives than the purely self-interested bidding agents.

In the last article of this series, we had discussed multivariate linear regression model. Fernando creates a model that estimates the price of the car based on five input parameters. Fernando indeed has a better model. Yet, he wanted to select the best set of variables for input. The idea of model selection method is intuitive. How is an optimal model defined?

This week we'll be looking at some of the papers from WSDM'18. To kick things off I've chosen a paper tackling the problem of detecting fake news on social media. One of the challenges here is that fake news messages (the better ones anyway), are crafted to look just like real news. So classifying messages based on their content can be difficult. The big idea in'Tracking fake news footprints' is that the way a message spreads through a network gives a strong indication of the kind of information it contains.

Predictive models that generalize well under distributional shift are often desirable and sometimes crucial to building robust and reliable machine learning applications. We focus on distributional shift that arises in causal inference from observational data and in unsupervised domain adaptation. We pose both of these problems as prediction under a shift in design. Popular methods for overcoming distributional shift make unrealistic assumptions such as having a well-specified model or knowing the policy that gave rise to the observed data. Other methods are hindered by their need for a pre-specified metric for comparing observations, or by poor asymptotic properties. We devise a bound on the generalization error under design shift, incorporating both representation learning and sample re-weighting. Based on the bound, we propose an algorithmic framework that does not require any of the above assumptions and which is asymptotically consistent. We empirically study the new framework using two synthetic datasets, and demonstrate its effectiveness compared to previous methods.

Variational Bayesian neural nets combine the flexibility of deep learning with Bayesian uncertainty estimation. Unfortunately, there is a tradeoff between cheap but simple variational families (e.g.~fully factorized) or expensive and complicated inference procedures. We show that natural gradient ascent with adaptive weight noise implicitly fits a variational posterior to maximize the evidence lower bound (ELBO). This insight allows us to train full-covariance, fully factorized, or matrix-variate Gaussian variational posteriors using noisy versions of natural gradient, Adam, and K-FAC, respectively, making it possible to scale up to modern-size ConvNets. On standard regression benchmarks, our noisy K-FAC algorithm makes better predictions and matches Hamiltonian Monte Carlo's predictive variances better than existing methods. Its improved uncertainty estimates lead to more efficient exploration in active learning, and intrinsic motivation for reinforcement learning.

Abstract-- Recent successes in reinforcement learning have lead to the development of complex controllers for realworld robots.As these robots are deployed in safety-critical applications and interact with humans, it becomes critical to ensure safety in order to avoid causing harm. A first step in this direction is to test the controllers in simulation. To be able to do this, we need to capture what we mean by safety and then efficiently search the space of all behaviors to see if they are safe. In this paper, we present an active-testing framework based on Bayesian Optimization. We specify safety constraints using logic and exploit structure in the problem in order to test the system for adversarial counter examples that violate the safety specifications. These specifications are defined as complex boolean combinations of smooth functions on the trajectories and, unlike reward functions in reinforcement learning, are expressive and impose hard constraints on the system. In our framework, we exploit regularity assumptions on individual functions in form of a Gaussian Process (GP) prior. We combine these into a coherent optimization framework using problem structure. The resulting algorithm is able to provably verify complex safety specifications or alternatively find counter examples. Experimental results show that the proposed method is able to find adversarial examples quickly.

High-dimensional time series data exist in numerous areas such as finance, genomics, healthcare, and neuroscience. An unavoidable aspect of all such datasets is missing data, and dealing with this issue has been an important focus in statistics, control, and machine learning. In this work, we consider a high-dimensional estimation problem where a dynamical system, governed by a stable vector autoregressive model, is randomly and only partially observed at each time point. Our task amounts to estimating the transition matrix, which is assumed to be sparse. In such a scenario, where covariates are highly interdependent and partially missing, new theoretical challenges arise. While transition matrix estimation in vector autoregressive models has been studied previously, the missing data scenario requires separate efforts. Moreover, while transition matrix estimation can be studied from a high-dimensional sparse linear regression perspective, the covariates are highly dependent and existing results on regularized estimation with missing data from i.i.d.~covariates are not applicable. At the heart of our analysis lies 1) a novel concentration result when the innovation noise satisfies the convex concentration property, as well as 2) a new quantity for characterizing the interactions of the time-varying observation process with the underlying dynamical system.

Single-cell RNA sequencing (scRNA-seq) is a fast growing approach to measure the genome-wide transcriptome of many individual cells in parallel, but results in noisy data with many dropout events. Existing methods to learn molecular signatures from bulk transcriptomic data may therefore not be adapted to scRNA-seq data, in order to automatically classify individual cells into predefined classes. We propose a new method called DropLasso to learn a molecular signature from scRNA-seq data. DropLasso extends the dropout regularisation technique, popular in neural network training, to esti- mate sparse linear models. It is well adapted to data corrupted by dropout noise, such as scRNA-seq data, and we clarify how it relates to elastic net regularisation. We provide promising results on simulated and real scRNA-seq data, suggesting that DropLasso may be better adapted than standard regularisa- tions to infer molecular signatures from scRNA-seq data.

Information concentration of probability measures have important implications in learning theory. Recently, it is discovered that the information content of a log-concave distribution concentrates around their differential entropy, albeit with an unpleasant dependence on the ambient dimension. In this work, we prove that if the potentials of the log-concave distribution are exp-concave, which is a central notion for fast rates in online and statistical learning, then the concentration of information can be further improved to depend only on the exp-concavity parameter, and hence, it can be dimension independent. Central to our proof is a novel yet simple application of the variance Brascamp-Lieb inequality. In the context of learning theory, our concentration-of-information result immediately implies high-probability results to many of the previous bounds that only hold in expectation.

Interpretation of a machine learning induced models is critical for feature engineering, debugging, and, arguably, compliance. Yet, best of breed machine learning models tend to be very complex. This paper presents a method for model interpretation which has the main benefit that the simple interpretations it provides are always grounded in actual sets of learning examples. The method is validated on the task of interpreting a complex regression model in the context of both an academic problem -- predicting the year in which a song was recorded and an industrial one -- predicting mail user churn.