Non-uniform random samples are commonly generated in multiple scientific fields ranging from economics to medicine. Complex sampling designs afford research with increased precision for estimating parameters of interest in less prevalent sub-populations. With a growing interest in using complex samples to generate prediction models for numerous outcomes it is necessary to account for the sampling design that gave rise to the data in order to assess the generalized predictive utility of a proposed prediction rule. Specifically, after learning a prediction rule based on a complex sample, it is of interest to estimate the rule's error rate when applied to unobserved members of the population. Efron proposed a general class of covariance-inflated prediction error estimators that assumed the available training data is representative of the target population for which the prediction rule is to be applied. We extend Efron's estimator to the complex sample context by incorporating Horvitz-Thompson sampling weights and show that it is consistent for the true generalization error rate when applied to the underlying superpopulation giving rise to the training sample. The resulting Horvitz-Thompson-Efron (HTE) estimator is equivalent to dAIC---a recent extension of AIC to survey sampling data---and is more widely applicable. The proposed methodology is assessed via empirical simulations and is applied to data predicting renal function that was obtained from the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (NHANES).

Predictive models can be used on high-dimensional brain images for diagnosis of a clinical condition. Spatial regularization through structured sparsity offers new perspectives in this context and reduces the risk of overfitting the model while providing interpretable neuroimaging signatures by forcing the solution to adhere to domain-specific constraints. Total Variation (TV) enforces spatial smoothness of the solution while segmenting predictive regions from the background. We consider the problem of minimizing the sum of a smooth convex loss, a non-smooth convex penalty (whose proximal operator is known) and a wide range of possible complex, non-smooth convex structured penalties such as TV or overlapping group Lasso. Existing solvers are either limited in the functions they can minimize or in their practical capacity to scale to high-dimensional imaging data. Nesterov's smoothing technique can be used to minimize a large number of non-smooth convex structured penalties but reasonable precision requires a small smoothing parameter, which slows down the convergence speed. To benefit from the versatility of Nesterov's smoothing technique, we propose a first order continuation algorithm, CONESTA, which automatically generates a sequence of decreasing smoothing parameters. The generated sequence maintains the optimal convergence speed towards any globally desired precision. Our main contributions are: To propose an expression of the duality gap to probe the current distance to the global optimum in order to adapt the smoothing parameter and the convergence speed. We provide a convergence rate, which is an improvement over classical proximal gradient smoothing methods. We demonstrate on both simulated and high-dimensional structural neuroimaging data that CONESTA significantly outperforms many state-of-the-art solvers in regard to convergence speed and precision.

We consider the analysis of spectral clustering algorithms for community detection under a stochastic block model (SBM). A general spectral clustering algorithm consists of three steps: (1) regularization of an appropriate adjacency or Laplacian matrix (2) a form of spectral truncation and (3) a k-means type algorithm in the reduced spectral domain. By varying each step, one can obtain different spectral algorithms. In light of the recent developments in refining consistency results for the spectral clustering, we identify the necessary bounds at each of these three steps, and then derive and compare consistency results for some existing spectral algorithms as well as a new variant that we propose. The focus of the paper is on providing a better understanding of the analysis of spectral methods for community detection, with an emphasis on the bipartite setting which has received less theoretical consideration. We show how the variations in the spectral truncation step reflects in the consistency results under a general SBM. We also investigate the necessary bounds for the k-means step in some detail, allowing one to replace this step with any algorithm (k-means type or otherwise) that guarantees the necessary bound. We discuss some of the neglected aspects of the bipartite setting, e.g., the role of the mismatch between the communities of the two sides on the performance of spectral methods. Finally, we show how the consistency results can be extended beyond SBMs to the problem of clustering inhomogeneous random graph models that can be approximated by SBMs in a certain sense.

We consider the problem of variable selection in high-dimensional statistical models where the goal is to report a set of variables, out of many predictors $X_1, \dotsc, X_p$, that are relevant to a response of interest. For linear high-dimensional model, where the number of parameters exceeds the number of samples $(p>n)$, we propose a procedure for variables selection and prove that it controls the \emph{directional} false discovery rate (FDR) below a pre-assigned significance level $q\in [0,1]$. We further analyze the statistical power of our framework and show that for designs with subgaussian rows and a common precision matrix $\Omega\in\mathbb{R}^{p\times p}$, if the minimum nonzero parameter $\theta_{\min}$ satisfies $$\sqrt{n} \theta_{\min} - \sigma \sqrt{2(\max_{i\in [p]}\Omega_{ii})\log\left(\frac{2p}{qs_0}\right)} \to \infty\,,$$ then this procedure achieves asymptotic power one. Our framework is built upon the debiasing approach and assumes the standard condition $s_0 = o(\sqrt{n}/(\log p)^2)$, where $s_0$ indicates the number of true positives among the $p$ features. Notably, this framework achieves exact directional FDR control without any assumption on the amplitude of unknown regression parameters, and does not require any knowledge of the distribution of covariates or the noise level. We test our method in synthetic and real data experiments to asses its performance and to corroborate our theoretical results.

Linear mixed models (LMMs) are used extensively to model dependecies of observations in linear regression and are used extensively in many application areas. Parameter estimation for LMMs can be computationally prohibitive on big data. State-of-the-art learning algorithms require computational complexity which depends at least linearly on the dimension p of the covariates, and often use heuristics that do not offer theoretical guarantees. We present scalable algorithms for learning high-dimensional LMMs with sublinear computational complexity dependence on p. Key to our approach are novel dual estimators which use only kernel functions of the data, and fast computational techniques based on the subsampled randomized Hadamard transform. We provide theoretical guarantees for our learning algorithms, demonstrating the robustness of parameter estimation. Finally, we complement the theory with experiments on large synthetic and real data.

We introduce a new, high-throughput, synchronous, distributed, data-parallel, stochastic-gradient-descent learning algorithm. This algorithm uses amortized inference in a compute-cluster-specific, deep, generative, dynamical model to perform joint posterior predictive inference of the mini-batch gradient computation times of all worker-nodes in a parallel computing cluster. We show that a synchronous parameter server can, by utilizing such a model, choose an optimal cutoff time beyond which mini-batch gradient messages from slow workers are ignored that maximizes overall mini-batch gradient computations per second. In keeping with earlier findings we observe that, under realistic conditions, eagerly discarding the mini-batch gradient computations of stragglers not only increases throughput but actually increases the overall rate of convergence as a function of wall-clock time by virtue of eliminating idleness. The principal novel contribution and finding of this work goes beyond this by demonstrating that using the predicted run-times from a generative model of cluster worker performance to dynamically adjust the cutoff improves substantially over the static-cutoff prior art, leading to, among other things, significantly reduced deep neural net training times on large computer clusters.

The paper presents a novel approach to direct covariance function learning for Bayesian optimisation, with particular emphasis on experimental design problems where an existing corpus of condensed knowledge is present. The method presented borrows techniques from reproducing kernel Banach space theory (specifically m-kernels) and leverages them to convert (or re-weight) existing covariance functions into new, problem-specific covariance functions. The key advantage of this approach is that rather than relying on the user to manually select (with some hyperparameter tuning and experimentation) an appropriate covariance function it constructs the covariance function to specifically match the problem at hand. The technique is demonstrated on two real-world problems - specifically alloy design and short-polymer fibre manufacturing - as well as a selected test function.

Learning algorithms for implicit generative models can optimize a variety of criteria that measure how the data distribution differs from the implicit model distribution, including the Wasserstein distance, the Energy distance, and the Maximum Mean Discrepancy criterion. A careful look at the geometries induced by these distances on the space of probability measures reveals interesting differences. In particular, we can establish surprising approximate global convergence guarantees for the $1$-Wasserstein distance,even when the parametric generator has a nonconvex parametrization.

Information-theoretic Bayesian optimisation techniques have demonstrated state-of-the-art performance in tackling important global optimisation problems. However, current information-theoretic approaches require many approximations in implementation, introduce often-prohibitive computational overhead and limit the choice of kernels available to model the objective. We develop a fast information-theoretic Bayesian Optimisation method, FITBO, that avoids the need for sampling the global minimiser, thus significantly reducing computational overhead. Moreover, in comparison with existing approaches, our method faces fewer constraints on kernel choice and enjoys the merits of dealing with the output space. We demonstrate empirically that FITBO inherits the performance associated with information-theoretic Bayesian optimisation, while being even faster than simpler Bayesian optimisation approaches, such as Expected Improvement.

Over the past weeks I have started implementing basic machine learning algorithms in plain Python (Python 3.6). I created the repository to prepare for technical interviews and review my knowledge on algorithms such as k-means, k-nn, logistic regression, neural networks, etc. Also, I wanted to create a knowledge base of easy-to-understand implementations of these algorithms together with the most important theoretical explanations. Some of you might find these implementations helpful when preparing for interviews, starting to learn about machine learning or reviewing basic ML algorithms. I am still working on the repository, so more algorithms will follow over the next months.