Statistical Learning
BIN-CT: Urban Waste Collection based in Predicting the Container Fill Level
The fast demographic growth, together with the concentration of the population in cities and the increasing amount of daily waste, are factors that push to the limit the ability of waste assimilation by Nature. Therefore, we need technological means to make an optimal management of the waste collection process, which represents 70% of the operational cost in waste treatment. In this article, we present a free intelligent software system, based on computational learning algorithms, which plans the best routes for waste collection supported by past (historical) and future (predictions) data. The objective of the system is the cost reduction of the waste collection service by means of the minimization in distance traveled by any truck to collect a container, hence the fuel consumption. At the same time the quality of service to the citizen is increased avoiding the annoying overflows of containers thanks to the accurate fill level predictions performed by BIN-CT. In this article we show the features of our software system, illustrating it operation with a real case study of a Spanish city. We conclude that the use of BIN-CT avoids unnecessary visits to containers, reduces the distance traveled to collect a container and therefore we obtain a reduction of total costs and harmful emissions thrown to the atmosphere.
Bilevel Programming for Hyperparameter Optimization and Meta-Learning
Franceschi, Luca, Frasconi, Paolo, Salzo, Saverio, Grazzi, Riccardo, Pontil, Massimilano
We introduce a framework based on bilevel programming that unifies gradient-based hyperparameter optimization and meta-learning. We show that an approximate version of the bilevel problem can be solved by taking into explicit account the optimization dynamics for the inner objective. Depending on the specific setting, the outer variables take either the meaning of hyperparameters in a supervised learning problem or parameters of a meta-learner. We provide sufficient conditions under which solutions of the approximate problem converge to those of the exact problem. We instantiate our approach for meta-learning in the case of deep learning where representation layers are treated as hyperparameters shared across a set of training episodes. In experiments, we confirm our theoretical findings, present encouraging results for few-shot learning and contrast the bilevel approach against classical approaches for learning-to-learn.
On the Computational Power of Online Gradient Descent
Chatziafratis, Vaggos, Roughgarden, Tim, Wang, Joshua R.
We prove that the evolution of weight vectors in online gradient descent can encode arbitrary polynomial-space computations, even in the special case of soft-margin support vector machines. Our results imply that, under weak complexity-theoretic assumptions, it is impossible to reason efficiently about the fine-grained behavior of online gradient descent.
Breast Cancer Diagnosis via Classification Algorithms
In this paper, we analyze the Wisconsin Diagnostic Breast Cancer Data using Machine Learning classification techniques, such as the SVM, Bayesian Logistic Regression (Variational Approximation), and K-Nearest-Neighbors. We describe each model, and compare their performance through different measures. We conclude that SVM has the best performance among all other classifiers, while it competes closely with the Bayesian Logistic Regression that is ranked second best method for this dataset.
Deep convolutional encoder-decoder networks for uncertainty quantification of dynamic multiphase flow in heterogeneous media
Mo, Shaoxing, Zhu, Yinhao, Zabaras, Nicholas, Shi, Xiaoqing, Wu, Jichun
Surrogate strategies are used widely for uncertainty quantification of groundwater models in order to improve computational efficiency. However, their application to dynamic multiphase flow problems is hindered by the curse of dimensionality, the saturation discontinuity due to capillarity effects, and the time-dependence of the multi-output responses. In this paper, we propose a deep convolutional encoder-decoder neural network methodology to tackle these issues. The surrogate modeling task is transformed to an image-to-image regression strategy. This approach extracts high-level coarse features from the high-dimensional input permeability images using an encoder, and then refines the coarse features to provide the output pressure/saturation images through a decoder. A training strategy combining a regression loss and a segmentation loss is proposed in order to better approximate the discontinuous saturation field. To characterize the high-dimensional time-dependent outputs of the dynamic system, time is treated as an additional input to the network that is trained using pairs of input realizations and of the corresponding system outputs at a limited number of time instances. The proposed method is evaluated using a geological carbon storage process-based multiphase flow model with a 2500-dimensional stochastic permeability field. With a relatively small number of training data, the surrogate model is capable of accurately characterizing the spatio-temporal evolution of the pressure and discontinuous CO2 saturation fields and can be used efficiently to compute the statistics of the system responses.
Analysis and Optimization of Deep CounterfactualValue Networks
Mencía, Eneldo Loza, Hopner, Patryk
Recently a strong poker-playing algorithm called DeepStack was published, which is able to find an approximate Nash equilibrium during gameplay by using heuristic values of future states predicted by deep neural networks. This paper analyzes new ways of encoding the inputs and outputs of DeepStack's deep counterfactual value networks based on traditional abstraction techniques, as well as an unabstracted encoding, which was able to increase the network's accuracy.
Improving Goal-Oriented Visual Dialog Agents via Advanced Recurrent Nets with Tempered Policy Gradient
Learning goal-oriented dialogues by means of deep reinforcement learning has recently become a popular research topic. However, training text-generating agents efficiently is still a considerable challenge. Commonly used policy-based dialogue agents often end up focusing on simple utterances and suboptimal policies. To mitigate this problem, we propose a class of novel temperature-based extensions for policy gradient methods, which are referred to as Tempered Policy Gradients (TPGs). These methods encourage exploration with different temperature control strategies. We derive three variations of the TPGs and show their superior performance on a recently published AI-testbed, i.e., the GuessWhat?! game. On the testbed, we achieve significant improvements with two innovations. The first one is an extension of the state-of-the-art solutions with Seq2Seq and Memory Network structures that leads to an improvement of 9%. The second one is the application of our newly developed TPG methods, which improves the performance additionally by around 5% and, even more importantly, helps produce more convincing utterances. TPG can easily be applied to any goal-oriented dialogue systems.
A Unified Approach to Quantifying Algorithmic Unfairness: Measuring Individual & Group Unfairness via Inequality Indices
Speicher, Till, Heidari, Hoda, Grgic-Hlaca, Nina, Gummadi, Krishna P., Singla, Adish, Weller, Adrian, Zafar, Muhammad Bilal
Discrimination via algorithmic decision making has received considerable attention. Prior work largely focuses on defining conditions for fairness, but does not define satisfactory measures of algorithmic unfairness. In this paper, we focus on the following question: Given two unfair algorithms, how should we determine which of the two is more unfair? Our core idea is to use existing inequality indices from economics to measure how unequally the outcomes of an algorithm benefit different individuals or groups in a population. Our work offers a justified and general framework to compare and contrast the (un)fairness of algorithmic predictors. This unifying approach enables us to quantify unfairness both at the individual and the group level. Further, our work reveals overlooked tradeoffs between different fairness notions: using our proposed measures, the overall individual-level unfairness of an algorithm can be decomposed into a between-group and a within-group component. Earlier methods are typically designed to tackle only between-group unfairness, which may be justified for legal or other reasons. However, we demonstrate that minimizing exclusively the between-group component may, in fact, increase the within-group, and hence the overall unfairness. We characterize and illustrate the tradeoffs between our measures of (un)fairness and the prediction accuracy.
Optimality and Sub-optimality of PCA I: Spiked Random Matrix Models
Perry, Amelia, Wein, Alexander S., Bandeira, Afonso S., Moitra, Ankur
A central problem of random matrix theory is to understand the eigenvalues of spiked random matrix models, introduced by Johnstone, in which a prominent eigenvector (or "spike") is planted into a random matrix. These distributions form natural statistical models for principal component analysis (PCA) problems throughout the sciences. Baik, Ben Arous and Peche showed that the spiked Wishart ensemble exhibits a sharp phase transition asymptotically: when the spike strength is above a critical threshold, it is possible to detect the presence of a spike based on the top eigenvalue, and below the threshold the top eigenvalue provides no information. Such results form the basis of our understanding of when PCA can detect a low-rank signal in the presence of noise. However, under structural assumptions on the spike, not all information is necessarily contained in the spectrum. We study the statistical limits of tests for the presence of a spike, including non-spectral tests. Our results leverage Le Cam's notion of contiguity, and include: i) For the Gaussian Wigner ensemble, we show that PCA achieves the optimal detection threshold for certain natural priors for the spike. ii) For any non-Gaussian Wigner ensemble, PCA is sub-optimal for detection. However, an efficient variant of PCA achieves the optimal threshold (for natural priors) by pre-transforming the matrix entries. iii) For the Gaussian Wishart ensemble, the PCA threshold is optimal for positive spikes (for natural priors) but this is not always the case for negative spikes.
Differentiable Compositional Kernel Learning for Gaussian Processes
Sun, Shengyang, Zhang, Guodong, Wang, Chaoqi, Zeng, Wenyuan, Li, Jiaman, Grosse, Roger
The generalization properties of Gaussian processes depend heavily on the choice of kernel, and this choice remains a dark art. We present the Neural Kernel Network (NKN), a flexible family of kernels represented by a neural network. The NKN's architecture is based on the composition rules for kernels, so that each unit of the network corresponds to a valid kernel. It can compactly approximate compositional kernel structures such as those used by the Automatic Statistician (Lloyd et al., 2014), but because the architecture is differentiable, it is end-to-end trainable with gradientbased optimization. We show that the NKN is universal for the class of stationary kernels. Empirically we demonstrate NKN's pattern discovery and extrapolation abilities on several tasks that depend crucially on identifying the underlying structure, including time series and texture extrapolation, as well as Bayesian optimization.