Hyperparameter tuning is the black art of automatically finding a good combination of control parameters for a data miner. While widely applied in Software Engineering, there has not been much discussion on which hyperparameter tuner is best for software analytics. To address this gap in the literature, this paper applied a range of hyperparameter optimizers (grid search, differential evolution, random search, SMAC) to defect prediction. No hyperparameter optimizer was observed to be "best" and, for one of the two evaluation measures studied here (F-measure), hyperparameter optimization, in 50\% cases, was no better than using default configurations. We conclude that hyperparameter optimization is more nuanced than previously believed. While such optimization can certainly lead to large improvements in the performance of classifiers used in software analytics, it remains to be seen which specific optimizers should be endorsed.

Check out the code from here. Check out the code from here. Check out the code from here. Moving forward into #100DaysOfMLCode today I dived into the deeper depth of what actually Logistic Regression is and what is the math involved behind it. Learned how cost function is calculated and then how to apply gradient descent algorithm to cost function to minimize the error in prediction.

Whenever we look at any online course, they take off with linear regression and this is a concept that most of us know, that is, an equation of a line initially and then gradually fitting of the best fit line. The application of this algorithm is used in machine learning as a way to predict results in the future given the feature vectors, x. So, why is the cost function a squared cost function? Why not have an absolute cost function? Well, there are plenty of reasons as to why we consider this, but when we derive this mathematically, we come across the concept of exponential families under general linear models, which generalize the notion of loss functions for any given model, and thus the square function is actually an exponential family curve.

In this tutorial a short introduction to Time Series Modeling and Forecasting is presented. Time Series appears in many industries today that rely on predicting and balancing demand and Supply (e-commerce, retailer, ride-sharing, etc..) Hence, a good understanding of the underlying model generating the data can significantly help in predicting future values.

Heat demand prediction is a prominent research topic in the area of intelligent energy networks. It has been well recognized that periodicity is one of the important characteristics of heat demand. Seasonal-trend decomposition based on LOESS (STL) algorithm can analyze the periodicity of a heat demand series, and decompose the series into seasonal and trend components. Then, predicting the seasonal and trend components respectively, and combining their predictions together as the heat demand prediction is a possible way to predict heat demand. In this paper, STL-ENN-ARIMA (SEA), a combined model, was proposed based on the combination of the Elman neural network (ENN) and the autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) model, which are commonly applied to heat demand prediction. ENN and ARIMA are used to predict seasonal and trend components, respectively. Experimental results demonstrate that the proposed SEA model has a promising performance.

General Video Game Playing (GVGP) aims at designing an agent that is capable of playing multiple video games with no human intervention. In 2014, The General Video Game AI (GVGAI) competition framework was created and released with the purpose of providing researchers a common open-source and easy to use platform for testing their AI methods with potentially infinity of games created using Video Game Description Language (VGDL). The framework has been expanded into several tracks during the last few years to meet the demand of different research directions. The agents are required to either play multiples unknown games with or without access to game simulations, or to design new game levels or rules. This survey paper presents the VGDL, the GVGAI framework, existing tracks, and reviews the wide use of GVGAI framework in research, education and competitions five years after its birth. A future plan of framework improvements is also described.

We propose a tensor-based model that fuses a more granular representation of user preferences with the ability to take additional side information into account. The model relies on the concept of ordinal nature of utility, which better corresponds to actual user perception. In addition to that, unlike the majority of hybrid recommenders, the model ties side information directly to collaborative data, which not only addresses the problem of extreme data sparsity, but also allows to naturally exploit patterns in the observed behavior for a more meaningful representation of user intents. We demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed model on several standard benchmark datasets. The general formulation of the approach imposes no restrictions on the type of observed interactions and makes it potentially applicable for joint modelling of context information along with side data.

We focus our attention on the link prediction problem for knowledge graphs, which is treated herein as a binary classification task on neural embeddings of the entities. By comparing, combining and extending different methodologies for link prediction on graph-based data coming from different domains, we formalize a unified methodology for the quality evaluation benchmark of neural embeddings for knowledge graphs. This benchmark is then used to empirically investigate the potential of training neural embeddings globally for the entire graph, as opposed to the usual way of training embeddings locally for a specific relation. This new way of testing the quality of the embeddings evaluates the performance of binary classifiers for scalable link prediction with limited data. Our evaluation pipeline is made open source, and with this we aim to draw more attention of the community towards an important issue of transparency and reproducibility of the neural embeddings evaluations.

Multi-view data have been routinely collected in various fields of science and engineering. A general problem is to study the predictive association between multivariate responses and multi-view predictor sets, all of which can be of high dimensionality. It is likely that only a few views are relevant to prediction, and the predictors within each relevant view contribute to the prediction collectively rather than sparsely. We cast this new problem under the familiar multivariate regression framework and propose an integrative reduced-rank regression (iRRR), where each view has its own low-rank coefficient matrix. As such, latent features are extracted from each view in a supervised fashion. For model estimation, we develop a convex composite nuclear norm penalization approach, which admits an efficient algorithm via alternating direction method of multipliers. Extensions to non-Gaussian and incomplete data are discussed. Theoretically, we derive non-asymptotic oracle bounds of iRRR under a restricted eigenvalue condition. Our results recover oracle bounds of several special cases of iRRR including Lasso, group Lasso and nuclear norm penalized regression. Therefore, iRRR seamlessly bridges group-sparse and low-rank methods and can achieve substantially faster convergence rate under realistic settings of multi-view learning. Simulation studies and an application in the Longitudinal Studies of Aging further showcase the efficacy of the proposed methods.

Semantically understanding complex drivers' encountering behavior, wherein two or multiple vehicles are spatially close to each other, does potentially benefit autonomous car's decision-making design. This paper presents a framework of analyzing various encountering behaviors through decomposing driving encounter data into small building blocks, called driving primitives, using nonparametric Bayesian learning (NPBL) approaches, which offers a flexible way to gain an insight into the complex driving encounters without any prerequisite knowledge. The effectiveness of our proposed primitive-based framework is validated based on 976 naturalistic driving encounters, from which more than 4000 driving primitives are learned using NPBL - a sticky HDP-HMM, combined a hidden Markov model (HMM) with a hierarchical Dirichlet process (HDP). After that, a dynamic time warping method integrated with k-means clustering is then developed to cluster all these extracted driving primitives into groups. Experimental results find that there exist 20 kinds of driving primitives capable of representing the basic components of driving encounters in our database. This primitive-based analysis methodology potentially reveals underlying information of vehicle-vehicle encounters for self-driving applications.