Statistical Learning
Speech enhancement with variational autoencoders and alpha-stable distributions
Leglaive, Simon, Simsekli, Umut, Liutkus, Antoine, Girin, Laurent, Horaud, Radu
This paper focuses on single-channel semi-supervised speech enhancement. We learn a speaker-independent deep generative speech model using the framework of variational autoencoders. The noise model remains unsupervised because we do not assume prior knowledge of the noisy recording environment. In this context, our contribution is to propose a noise model based on alpha-stable distributions, instead of the more conventional Gaussian non-negative matrix factorization approach found in previous studies. We develop a Monte Carlo expectation-maximization algorithm for estimating the model parameters at test time. Experimental results show the superiority of the proposed approach both in terms of perceptual quality and intelligibility of the enhanced speech signal.
Meta-Curvature
Park, Eunbyung, Oliva, Junier B.
We propose to learn curvature information for better generalization and fast model adaptation, called meta-curvature. Based on the model-agnostic meta-learner (MAML), we learn to transform the gradients in the inner optimization such that the transformed gradients achieve better generalization performance to a new task. For training large scale neural networks, we decompose the curvature matrix into smaller matrices and capture the dependencies of the model's parameters with a series of tensor products. We demonstrate the effects of our proposed method on both few-shot image classification and few-shot reinforcement learning tasks. Experimental results show consistent improvements on classification tasks and promising results on reinforcement learning tasks. Furthermore, we observe faster convergence rates of the meta-training process. Finally, we present an analysis that explains better generalization performance with the meta-trained curvature.
Bayesian Nonparametric Adaptive Spectral Density Estimation for Financial Time Series
James, Nick, Marchant, Roman, Gerlach, Richard, Cripps, Sally
Discrimination between non-stationarity and long-range dependency is a difficult and long-standing issue in modelling financial time series. This paper uses an adaptive spectral technique which jointly models the non-stationarity and dependency of financial time series in a non-parametric fashion assuming that the time series consists of a finite, but unknown number, of locally stationary processes, the locations of which are also unknown. The model allows a non-parametric estimate of the dependency structure by modelling the auto-covariance function in the spectral domain. All our estimates are made within a Bayesian framework where we use aReversible Jump Markov Chain Monte Carlo algorithm for inference. We study the frequentist properties of our estimates via a simulation study, and present a novel way of generating time series data from a nonparametric spectrum. Results indicate that our techniques perform well across a range of data generating processes. We apply our method to a number of real examples and our results indicate that several financial time series exhibit both long-range dependency and non-stationarity.
Nonlinear Discovery of Slow Molecular Modes using Hierarchical Dynamics Encoders
Chen, Wei, Sidky, Hythem, Ferguson, Andrew L
Molecular dynamics (MD) simulations have long been an important tool for studying molecular systems by providing atomistic insight into physicochemical processes that cannot be easily obtained through experimentation. A key step in extracting kinetic information from molecular simulation is the recovery of the slow dynamical modes that govern the longtime evolution of system coordinates within a low-dimensional latent space. The variational approach to conformational dynamics (V AC) [1, 2] has been successful in providing a mathematical framework through which the eigenfunctions of the underlying transfer operator can be estimated [3, 4]. A special case of V AC which estimates linearly optimal slow modes from mean-free input coordinates is known as time-lagged independent component analysis (TICA) [1, 2, 4-9]. TICA is a widely used approach that has become a standard step in the Markov state modeling pipeline [10]. However, it is restricted to form linear combinations of the input coordinates and is unable to learn nonlinear transformations that are typically required to recover high resolution kinetic models of all but the simplest molecular systems. Schwantes et al. address this limitation by applying the kernel trick with TICA to learn nonlinear functions of the input coordinates [11]. A special case of a radial basis function kernels was realized by No e and Nuske in the direct application of V AC using Gaussian functions [1]. Kernel TICA (kTICA), however, suffers from a number of drawbacks that have precluded its broad adoption.
Censored Quantile Regression Forests
Li, Alexander Hanbo, Bradic, Jelena
In many applications, we want to predict and estimate the effect of a covariate on survival timeof interests. Examples include treatment, surgical procedure, or immunization on survival time of patients, who for example, could be individuals who have metastatic breast cancer, military casualties suffering from various injuries, or survival time of infectious diseases.Classically, most datasets have been too small to meaningfully examine the heterogeneity of the data beyond dividing them into a few subpopulations. In the past few years, however, there has been an explosion of experimental settings where it is potentially feasible to explore heterogeneity to its full extent. An impediment to exploring heterogeneous effects is the fear that scientists with two opposite agendas could hypothetically string together two opposite but coherent results by searching through many different possible models and then reporting only the very extreme ones - highlighting solely spurious results (Olken, 2015). Thus, protocols for clinical trials must specify in advance the pre-analysis plans and then learn from the data.
Discovering Context Effects from Raw Choice Data
Seshadri, Arjun, Peysakhovich, Alexander, Ugander, Johan
Many applications in preference learning assume that decisions come from the maximization of a stable utility function. Yet a large experimental literature shows that individual choices and judgements can be affected by "irrelevant" aspects of the context in which they are made. An important class of such contexts is the composition of the choice set. In this work, our goal is to discover such choice set effects from raw choice data. We introduce an extension of the Multinomial Logit (MNL) model, called the context dependent random utility model (CDM), which allows for a particular class of choice set effects. We show that the CDM can be thought of as a second-order approximation to a general choice system, can be inferred optimally using maximum likelihood and, importantly, is easily interpretable. We apply the CDM to both real and simulated choice data to perform principled exploratory analyses for the presence of choice set effects.
Non-Stationary Streaming PCA
Bienstock, Daniel, Shukla, Apurv, Yun, SeYoung
Principal component analysis is one of the most extensively studied methods for constructing linear low-dimensional representation of high-dimensional data. Modern applications such as privacy presevering distributedcomputations (Hardt and Roth (2013)), covariance estimtion of high-frequency data (Chang et al. (2018),Aït-Sahalia et al. (2010)), detecting power grid attacks (Bienstock and Shukla (2018), Escobar et al. (2018)) etc. require design of sub-linear time algorithms with low storage overhead. Existing workon PCA has focused on design and analysis of single-pass (streaming) algorithms with nearoptimal memoryand storage complexity assuming stationarity of the underlying data-generating process. However, physical systems generating data for such applications undergo rapid evolution. For example, dynamic market behaviour leads to time-series data with volatile covariance matrices. Our understanding of such physical system crucially relies on accurate estimation of the data generating space.
Scalable Nonparametric Sampling from Multimodal Posteriors with the Posterior Bootstrap
Fong, Edwin, Lyddon, Simon, Holmes, Chris
Increasingly complex datasets pose a number of challenges for Bayesian inference. Conventional posterior sampling based on Markov chain Monte Carlo can be too computationally intensive, is serial in nature and mixes poorly between posterior modes. Further, all models are misspecified, which brings into question the validity of the conventional Bayesian update. We present a scalable Bayesian nonparametric learning routine that enables posterior sampling through the optimization of suitably randomized objective functions. A Dirichlet process prior on the unknown data distribution accounts for model misspecification, and admits an embarrassingly parallel posterior bootstrap algorithm that generates independent and exact samples from the nonparametric posterior distribution. Our method is particularly adept at sampling from multimodal posterior distributions via a random restart mechanism. We demonstrate our method on Gaussian mixture model and sparse logistic regression examples.
Bounded Fuzzy Possibilistic Method
This paper introduces Bounded Fuzzy Possibilistic Method (BFPM) by addressing several issues that previous clustering/classification methods have not considered. In fuzzy clustering, object's membership values should sum to 1. Hence, any object may obtain full membership in at most one cluster. Possibilistic clustering methods remove this restriction. However, BFPM differs from previous fuzzy and possibilistic clustering approaches by allowing the membership function to take larger values with respect to all clusters. Furthermore, in BFPM, a data object can have full membership in multiple clusters or even in all clusters. BFPM relaxes the boundary conditions (restrictions) in membership assignment. The proposed methodology satisfies the necessity of obtaining full memberships and overcomes the issues with conventional methods on dealing with overlapping. Analysing the objects' movements from their own cluster to another (mutation) is also proposed in this paper. BFPM has been applied in different domains in geometry, set theory, anomaly detection, risk management, diagnosis diseases, and other disciplines. Validity and comparison indexes have been also used to evaluate the accuracy of BFPM. BFPM has been evaluated in terms of accuracy, fuzzification constant (different norms), objects' movement analysis, and covering diversity. The promising results prove the importance of considering the proposed methodology in learning methods to track the behaviour of data objects, in addition to obtain accurate results.
Using Background Knowledge to Rank Itemsets
Tatti, Nikolaj, Mampaey, Michael
Assessing the quality of discovered results is an important open problem in data mining. Such assessment is particularly vital when mining itemsets, since commonly many of the discovered patterns can be easily explained by background knowledge. The simplest approach to screen uninteresting patterns is to compare the observed frequency against the independence model. Since the parameters for the independence model are the column margins, we can view such screening as a way of using the column margins as background knowledge. In this paper we study techniques for more flexible approaches for infusing background knowledge. Namely, we show that we can efficiently use additional knowledge such as row margins, lazarus counts, and bounds of ones. We demonstrate that these statistics describe forms of data that occur in practice and have been studied in data mining. To infuse the information efficiently we use a maximum entropy approach. In its general setting, solving a maximum entropy model is infeasible, but we demonstrate that for our setting it can be solved in polynomial time. Experiments show that more sophisticated models fit the data better and that using more information improves the frequency prediction of itemsets.