Statistical Learning
On Application of Learning to Rank for E-Commerce Search
Santu, Shubhra Kanti Karmaker, Sondhi, Parikshit, Zhai, ChengXiang
E-Commerce (E-Com) search is an emerging important new application of information retrieval. Learning to Rank (LETOR) is a general effective strategy for optimizing search engines, and is thus also a key technology for E-Com search. While the use of LETOR for web search has been well studied, its use for E-Com search has not yet been well explored. In this paper, we discuss the practical challenges in applying learning to rank methods to E-Com search, including the challenges in feature representation, obtaining reliable relevance judgments, and optimally exploiting multiple user feedback signals such as click rates, add-to-cart ratios, order rates, and revenue. We study these new challenges using experiments on industry data sets and report several interesting findings that can provide guidance on how to optimally apply LETOR to E-Com search: First, popularity-based features defined solely on product items are very useful and LETOR methods were able to effectively optimize their combination with relevance-based features. Second, query attribute sparsity raises challenges for LETOR, and selecting features to reduce/avoid sparsity is beneficial. Third, while crowdsourcing is often useful for obtaining relevance judgments for Web search, it does not work as well for E-Com search due to difficulty in eliciting sufficiently fine grained relevance judgments. Finally, among the multiple feedback signals, the order rate is found to be the most robust training objective, followed by click rate, while add-to-cart ratio seems least robust, suggesting that an effective practical strategy may be to initially use click rates for training and gradually shift to using order rates as they become available.
Large Scale Product Categorization using Structured and Unstructured Attributes
Krishnan, Abhinandan, Amarthaluri, Abilash
Product categorization using text data for eCommerce is a very challenging extreme classification problem with several thousands of classes and several millions of products to classify. Even though multi-class text classification is a well studied problem both in academia and industry, most approaches either deal with treating product content as a single pile of text, or only consider a few product attributes for modelling purposes. Given the variety of products sold on popular eCommerce platforms, it is hard to consider all available product attributes as part of the modeling exercise, considering that products possess their own unique set of attributes based on category. In this paper, we compare hierarchical models to flat models and show that in specific cases, flat models perform better. We explore two Deep Learning based models that extract features from individual pieces of unstructured data from each product and then combine them to create a product signature. We also propose a novel idea of using structured attributes and their values together in an unstructured fashion along with convolutional filters such that the ordering of the attributes and the differing attributes by product categories no longer becomes a modelling challenge. This approach is also more robust to the presence of faulty product attribute names and values and can elegantly generalize to use both closed list and open list attributes.
Automated Model Selection with Bayesian Quadrature
Chai, Henry, Ton, Jean-Francois, Garnett, Roman, Osborne, Michael A.
We present a novel technique for tailoring Bayesian quadrature (BQ) to model selection. The state-of-the-art for comparing the evidence of multiple models relies on Monte Carlo methods, which converge slowly and are unreliable for computationally expensive models. Previous research has shown that BQ offers sample efficiency superior to Monte Carlo in computing the evidence of an individual model. However, applying BQ directly to model comparison may waste computation producing an overly-accurate estimate for the evidence of a clearly poor model. We propose an automated and efficient algorithm for computing the most-relevant quantity for model selection: the posterior probability of a model. Our technique maximizes the mutual information between this quantity and observations of the models' likelihoods, yielding efficient acquisition of samples across disparate model spaces when likelihood observations are limited. Our method produces more-accurate model posterior estimates using fewer model likelihood evaluations than standard Bayesian quadrature and Monte Carlo estimators, as we demonstrate on synthetic and real-world examples.
When Relaxations Go Bad: "Differentially-Private" Machine Learning
Jayaraman, Bargav, Evans, David
Differential privacy is becoming a standard notion for performing privacy-preserving machine learning over sensitive data. It provides formal guarantees, in terms of the privacy budget, $\epsilon$, on how much information about individual training records is leaked by the model. While the privacy budget is directly correlated to the privacy leakage, the calibration of the privacy budget is not well understood. As a result, many existing works on privacy-preserving machine learning select large values of $\epsilon$ in order to get acceptable utility of the model, with little understanding of the concrete impact of such choices on meaningful privacy. Moreover, in scenarios where iterative learning procedures are used which require privacy guarantees for each iteration, relaxed definitions of differential privacy are often used which further tradeoff privacy for better utility. In this paper, we evaluate the impacts of these choices on privacy in experiments with logistic regression and neural network models. We quantify the privacy leakage in terms of advantage of the adversary performing inference attacks and by analyzing the number of members at risk for exposure. Our main findings are that current mechanisms for differential privacy for machine learning rarely offer acceptable utility-privacy tradeoffs: settings that provide limited accuracy loss provide little effective privacy, and settings that provide strong privacy result in useless models. Open source code is available at https://github.com/bargavj/EvaluatingDPML.
Approximation Properties of Variational Bayes for Vector Autoregressions
Variational Bayes (VB) is a recent approximate method for Bayesian inference. It has the merit of being a fast and scalable alternative to Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) but its approximation error is often unknown. In this paper, we derive the approximation error of VB in terms of mean, mode, variance, predictive density and KL divergence for the linear Gaussian multi-equation regression. Our results indicate that VB approximates the posterior mean perfectly. Factors affecting the magnitude of underestimation in posterior variance and mode are revealed. Importantly, We demonstrate that VB estimates predictive densities accurately.
Improved Differentially Private Analysis of Variance
Swanberg, Marika, Globus-Harris, Ira, Griffith, Iris, Ritz, Anna, Groce, Adam, Bray, Andrew
Hypothesis testing is one of the most common types of data analysis and forms the backbone of scientific research in many disciplines. Analysis of variance (ANOVA) in particular is used to detect dependence between a categorical and a numerical variable. Here we show how one can carry out this hypothesis test under the restrictions of differential privacy. We show that the $F$-statistic, the optimal test statistic in the public setting, is no longer optimal in the private setting, and we develop a new test statistic $F_1$ with much higher statistical power. We show how to rigorously compute a reference distribution for the $F_1$ statistic and give an algorithm that outputs accurate $p$-values. We implement our test and experimentally optimize several parameters. We then compare our test to the only previous work on private ANOVA testing, using the same effect size as that work. We see an order of magnitude improvement, with our test requiring only 7% as much data to detect the effect.
Quantitative Robustness of Localized Support Vector Machines
There are many general introductions to these methods from the view of computer science and statistics. Summarizing textbooks are for example Cristianini & Shawe-Taylor (2000), Schรถlkopf & Smola (2001), Cucker & Zhou (2007), or Steinwart & Christmann (2008). These methods became pretty popular in many fields of science, see for example Ma & Guo (2014). The analysis provided by this paper refers to supervised learning, i. e. to classification or regression problems. Beyond this, support vector machines are a suitable method for unsupervised learning (e. g. novelty detection), too. The paper can be seen as a sequel to Dumpert & Christmann (2018) where universal consistency and robustness with respect to the maxbias of localized support vector machines have already been shown. This paper is dedicated to refine the robustness analysis. It is organized as follows: Section 2.1 gives a short overview on support vector machines, Section 2.2 introduces shortly the idea of local approaches. The results concerning the influence function of localized support vector machines are given in Section 3. Section 4 finally summarizes the paper.
GAP: Generalizable Approximate Graph Partitioning Framework
Nazi, Azade, Hang, Will, Goldie, Anna, Ravi, Sujith, Mirhoseini, Azalia
Graph partitioning is the problem of dividing the nodes of a graph into balanced partitions while minimizing the edge cut across the partitions. Due to its combinatorial nature, many approximate solutions have been developed, including variants of multi-level methods and spectral clustering. We propose GAP, a Generalizable Approximate Partitioning framework that takes a deep learning approach to graph partitioning. We define a differentiable loss function that represents the partitioning objective and use backpropagation to optimize the network parameters. Unlike baselines that redo the optimization per graph, GAP is capable of generalization, allowing us to train models that produce performant partitions at inference time, even on unseen graphs. Furthermore, because we learn the representation of the graph while jointly optimizing for the partitioning loss function, GAP can be easily tuned for a variety of graph structures. We evaluate the performance of GAP on graphs of varying sizes and structures, including graphs of widely used machine learning models (e.g., ResNet, VGG, and Inception-V3), scale-free graphs, and random graphs. We show that GAP achieves competitive partitions while being up to 100 times faster than the baseline and generalizes to unseen graphs.
Machine learning in policy evaluation: new tools for causal inference
Kreif, Noemi, DiazOrdaz, Karla
While machine learning (ML) methods have received a lot of attention in recent years, these methods are primarily for prediction. Empirical researchers conducting policy evaluations are, on the other hand, pre-occupied with causal problems, trying to answer counterfactual questions: what would have happened in the absence of a policy? Because these counterfactuals can never be directly observed (described as the "fundamental problem of causal inference") prediction tools from the ML literature cannot be readily used for causal inference. In the last decade, major innovations have taken place incorporating supervised ML tools into estimators for causal parameters such as the average treatment effect (ATE). This holds the promise of attenuating model misspecification issues, and increasing of transparency in model selection. One particularly mature strand of the literature include approaches that incorporate supervised ML approaches in the estimation of the ATE of a binary treatment, under the \textit{unconfoundedness} and positivity assumptions (also known as exchangeability and overlap assumptions). This article reviews popular supervised machine learning algorithms, including the Super Learner. Then, some specific uses of machine learning for treatment effect estimation are introduced and illustrated, namely (1) to create balance among treated and control groups, (2) to estimate so-called nuisance models (e.g. the propensity score, or conditional expectations of the outcome) in semi-parametric estimators that target causal parameters (e.g. targeted maximum likelihood estimation or the double ML estimator), and (3) the use of machine learning for variable selection in situations with a high number of covariates.
On the complexity of logistic regression models
Bulso, Nicola, Marsili, Matteo, Roudi, Yasser
We investigate the complexity of logistic regression models which is defined by counting the number of indistinguishable distributions that the model can represent (Balasubramanian, 1997). We find that the complexity of logistic models with binary inputs does not only depend on the number of parameters but also on the distribution of inputs in a non-trivial way which standard treatments of complexity do not address. In particular, we observe that correlations among inputs induce effective dependencies among parameters thus constraining the model and, consequently, reducing its complexity. We derive simple relations for the upper and lower bounds of the complexity. Furthermore, we show analytically that, defining the model parameters on a finite support rather than the entire axis, decreases the complexity in a manner that critically depends on the size of the domain. Based on our findings, we propose a novel model selection criterion which takes into account the entropy of the input distribution. We test our proposal on the problem of selecting the input variables of a logistic regression model in a Bayesian Model Selection framework. In our numerical tests, we find that, while the reconstruction errors of standard model selection approaches (AIC, BIC, $\ell_1$ regularization) strongly depend on the sparsity of the ground truth, the reconstruction error of our method is always close to the minimum in all conditions of sparsity, data size and strength of input correlations. Finally, we observe that, when considering categorical instead of binary inputs, in a simple and mathematically tractable case, the contribution of the alphabet size to the complexity is very small compared to that of parameter space dimension. We further explore the issue by analysing the dataset of the "13 keys to the White House" which is a method for forecasting the outcomes of US presidential elections.