Artificial Intelligence (AI) has the opportunity to revolutionize the way the United States Department of Defense (DoD) and Intelligence Community (IC) address the challenges of evolving threats, data deluge, and rapid courses of action. Developing an end-to-end artificial intelligence system involves parallel development of different pieces that must work together in order to provide capabilities that can be used by decision makers, warfighters and analysts. These pieces include data collection, data conditioning, algorithms, computing, robust artificial intelligence, and human-machine teaming. While much of the popular press today surrounds advances in algorithms and computing, most modern AI systems leverage advances across numerous different fields. Further, while certain components may not be as visible to end-users as others, our experience has shown that each of these interrelated components play a major role in the success or failure of an AI system. This article is meant to highlight many of these technologies that are involved in an end-to-end AI system. The goal of this article is to provide readers with an overview of terminology, technical details and recent highlights from academia, industry and government. Where possible, we indicate relevant resources that can be used for further reading and understanding.

The standard linear and logistic regression models assume that the response variables are independent, but share the same linear relationship to their corresponding vectors of covariates. The assumption that the response variables are independent is, however, too strong. In many applications, these responses are collected on nodes of a network, or some spatial or temporal domain, and are dependent. Examples abound in financial and meteorological applications, and dependencies naturally arise in social networks through peer effects. Regression with dependent responses has thus received a lot of attention in the Statistics and Economics literature, but there are no strong consistency results unless multiple independent samples of the vectors of dependent responses can be collected from these models. We present computationally and statistically efficient methods for linear and logistic regression models when the response variables are dependent on a network. Given one sample from a networked linear or logistic regression model and under mild assumptions, we prove strong consistency results for recovering the vector of coefficients and the strength of the dependencies, recovering the rates of standard regression under independent observations. We use projected gradient descent on the negative log-likelihood, or negative log-pseudolikelihood, and establish their strong convexity and consistency using concentration of measure for dependent random variables.

Machine learning techniques typically rely on large datasets to create accurate classifiers. However, there are situations when data is scarce and expensive to acquire. This is the case of studies that rely on state-of-the-art computational models which typically take days to run, thus hindering the potential of machine learning tools. In this work, we present a novel classifier that takes advantage of lower fidelity models and inexpensive approximations to predict the binary output of expensive computer simulations. We postulate an autoregressive model between the different levels of fidelity with Gaussian process priors. We adopt a fully Bayesian treatment for the hyper-parameters and use Markov Chain Mont Carlo samplers. We take advantage of the probabilistic nature of the classifier to implement active learning strategies. We also introduce a sparse approximation to enhance the ability of themulti-fidelity classifier to handle large datasets. We test these multi-fidelity classifiers against their single-fidelity counterpart with synthetic data, showing a median computational cost reduction of 23% for a target accuracy of 90%. In an application to cardiac electrophysiology, the multi-fidelity classifier achieves an F1 score, the harmonic mean of precision and recall, of 99.6% compared to 74.1% of a single-fidelity classifier when both are trained with 50 samples. In general, our results show that the multi-fidelity classifiers outperform their single-fidelity counterpart in terms of accuracy in all cases. We envision that this new tool will enable researchers to study classification problems that would otherwise be prohibitively expensive. Source code is available at https://github.com/fsahli/MFclass.

In recent years, increasingly augmentation of health data, such as patient Electronic Health Records (EHR), are becoming readily available. This provides an unprecedented opportunity for knowledge discovery and data mining algorithms to dig insights from them, which can, later on, be helpful to the improvement of the quality of care delivery. Predictive modeling of clinical risk, including in-hospital mortality, hospital readmission, chronic disease onset, condition exacerbation, etc., from patient EHR, is one of the health data analytic problems that attract most of the interests. The reason is not only because the problem is important in clinical settings, but also there are challenges working with EHR such as sparsity, irregularity, temporality, etc. Different from applications in other domains such as computer vision and natural language processing, the labeled data samples in medicine (patients) are relatively limited, which creates lots of troubles for effective predictive model learning, especially for complicated models such as deep learning. In this paper, we propose MetaPred, a meta-learning for clinical risk prediction from longitudinal patient EHRs. In particular, in order to predict the target risk where there are limited data samples, we train a meta-learner from a set of related risk prediction tasks which learns how a good predictor is learned. The meta-learned can then be directly used in target risk prediction, and the limited available samples can be used for further fine-tuning the model performance. The effectiveness of MetaPred is tested on a real patient EHR repository from Oregon Health & Science University. We are able to demonstrate that with CNN and RNN as base predictors, MetaPred can achieve much better performance for predicting target risk with low resources comparing with the predictor trained on the limited samples available for this risk.

Deep neural networks have yielded superior performance in many applications; however, the gradient computation in a deep model with millions of instances leads to a lengthy training process even with modern GPU/TPU hardware acceleration. In this paper, we propose AutoAssist, a simple framework to accelerate training of a deep neural network. Typically, as the training procedure evolves, the amount of improvement in the current model by a stochastic gradient update on each instance varies dynamically . In AutoAssist, we utilize this fact and design a simple instance shrinking operation, which is used to filter out instances with relatively low marginal improvement to the current model; thus the computationally intensive gradient computations are performed on informative instances as much as possible. We prove that the proposed technique outperforms vanilla SGD with existing importance sampling approaches for linear SVM problems, and establish an O(1/k) convergence for strongly convex problems. In order to apply the proposed techniques to accelerate training of deep models, we propose to jointly train a very lightweight Assistant network in addition to the original deep network referred to as Boss. The Assistant network is designed to gauge the importance of a given instance with respect to the current Boss such that a shrinking operation can be applied in the batch generator. With careful design, we train the Boss and Assistant in a nonblocking and asynchronous fashion such that overhead is minimal. We demonstrate that AutoAssist reduces the number of epochs by 40% for training a ResNet to reach the same test accuracy on an image classification data set, and saves 30% training time needed for a transformer model to yield the same BLEU scores on a translation dataset.

In order to design haptic icons or build a haptic vocabulary, we require a set of easily distinguishable haptic signals to avoid perceptual ambiguity, which in turn requires a way to accurately estimate the perceptual (dis)similarity of such signals. In this work, we present a novel method to learn such a perceptual metric based on data from human studies. Our method is based on a deep neural network that projects signals to an embedding space where the natural Euclidean distance accurately models the degree of dissimilarity between two signals. The network is trained only on non-numerical comparisons of triplets of signals, using a novel triplet loss that considers both types of triplets that are easy to order (inequality constraints), as well as those that are unorderable/ambiguous (equality constraints). Unlike prior MDS-based non-parametric approaches, our method can be trained on a partial set of comparisons and can embed new haptic signals without retraining the model from scratch. Extensive experimental evaluations show that our method is significantly more effective at modeling perceptual dissimilarity than alternatives.

The dearth of prescribing guidelines for physicians is one key driver of the current opioid epidemic in the United States. In this work, we analyze medical and pharmaceutical claims data to draw insights on characteristics of patients who are more prone to adverse outcomes after an initial synthetic opioid prescription. Toward this end, we propose a generative model that allows discovery from observational data of subgroups that demonstrate an enhanced or diminished causal effect due to treatment. Our approach models these sub-populations as a mixture distribution, using sparsity to enhance interpretability, while jointly learning nonlinear predictors of the potential outcomes to better adjust for confounding. The approach leads to human-interpretable insights on discovered subgroups, improving the practical utility for decision support

Policy gradient algorithms are among the best candidates for the much anticipated application of reinforcement learning to real-world control tasks, such as the ones arising in robotics. However, the trial-and-error nature of these methods introduces safety issues whenever the learning phase itself must be performed on a physical system. In this paper, we address a specific safety formulation, where danger is encoded in the reward signal and the learning agent is constrained to never worsen its performance. By studying actor-only policy gradient from a stochastic optimization perspective, we establish improvement guarantees for a wide class of parametric policies, generalizing existing results on Gaussian policies. This, together with novel upper bounds on the variance of policy gradient estimators, allows to identify those meta-parameter schedules that guarantee monotonic improvement with high probability. The two key meta-parameters are the step size of the parameter updates and the batch size of the gradient estimators. By a joint, adaptive selection of these meta-parameters, we obtain a safe policy gradient algorithm.

Conformal prediction is a technique for constructing prediction intervals that attain valid coverage in finite samples, without making distributional assumptions. Despite this appeal, existing conformal methods can be unnecessarily conservative because they form intervals of constant or weakly varying length across the input space. In this paper we propose a new method that is fully adaptive to heteroscedasticity. It combines conformal prediction with classical quantile regression, inheriting the advantages of both. We establish a theoretical guarantee of valid coverage, supplemented by extensive experiments on popular regression datasets. We compare the efficiency of conformalized quantile regression to other conformal methods, showing that our method tends to produce shorter intervals.

Data augmentation (DA) is commonly used during model training, as it significantly improves test error and model robustness. DA artificially expands the training set by applying random noise, rotations, crops, or even adversarial perturbations to the input data. Although DA is widely used, its capacity to provably improve robustness is not fully understood. In this work, we analyze the robustness that DA begets by quantifying the margin that DA enforces on empirical risk minimizers. We first focus on linear separators, and then a class of nonlinear models whose labeling is constant within small convex hulls of data points. We present lower bounds on the number of augmented data points required for non-zero margin, and show that commonly used DA techniques may only introduce significant margin after adding exponentially many points to the data set.