LLM routing aims to select the most appropriate model for each query, balancing competing performance metrics such as accuracy and cost across a pool of language models. Prior approaches typically adopt a decoupled strategy, where metrics are first predicted and the model is then selected based on these estimates. This setup is prone to compounding errors and often relies on full-feedback data, where each query is evaluated by all candidate models, which is costly to obtain and maintain in practice. In contrast, we learn from observational data, which records only the outcome of the model actually deployed. We propose a causal end-to-end framework that learns routing policies by minimizing decision-making regret from observational data. To enable efficient optimization, we introduce two theoretically grounded surrogate objectives: a classification-based upper bound, and a softmaxweighted regret approximation shown to recover the optimal policy at convergence. We further extend our framework to handle heterogeneous cost preferences via an interval-conditioned architecture. Experiments on public benchmarks show that our method outperforms existing baselines, achieving state-of-the-art performance across different embedding models.

We consider the problem of preprocessing an n n matrix M, and supporting queries that, for any vector v, returns the matrix-vector product Mv. This problem has been extensively studied in both theory and practice: on one side, practitioners have developed algorithms that are highly efficient in practice, whereas on the other side, theoreticians have proven that the problem cannot be solved faster than naive multiplication in the worst-case. This lower bound holds even in the average-case, implying that existing average-case analyses cannot explain this gap between theory and practice. Hence, we study the problem for structured matrices. We show that for n n Boolean matrices of VC-dimension d, the matrix-vector multiplication problem can be solved with eO(n2)preprocessing and eO(n2 1/d) query time.

However, L2O lacks rigorous theoretical backing for its own training convergence, as existing analyses often use unrealistic assumptions--a gap this work highlights empirically. We bridge this gap by proving the training convergence of L2O models that learn Gradient Descent (GD) hyperparameters for quadratic programming, leveraging the Neural Tangent Kernel (NTK) theory. We propose a deterministic initialization strategy to support our theoretical results and promote stable training over extended optimization horizons by mitigating gradient explosion. Our L2O framework demonstrates over 50% better optimality than GD and superior robustness over state-of-the-art L2O methods on synthetic datasets.

We analyze the global convergence of the single-timescale actor-critic (AC) algorithm for the infinite-horizon discounted Markov Decision Processes (MDPs) with finite state spaces. To this end, we introduce an elegant analytical framework for handling complex, coupled recursions inherent in the algorithm. Leveraging this framework, we establish that the algorithm converges to an ϵ-close globally optimal policy with a sample complexity of O(ϵ 3). This significantly improves upon the existing complexity of O(ϵ 2)to achieve ϵ-close stationary policy, which is equivalent to the complexity of O(ϵ 4)to achieve ϵ-close globally optimal policy using gradient domination lemma.

Safety validation, which assesses the safety of an autonomous system's motion planning decisions, is critical for the safe deployment of autonomous vehicles.

This work examines risk bounds for nonparametric distributional regression estimators. For convex-constrained distributional regression, general upper bounds are established for the continuous ranked probability score (CRPS) and the worst-case mean squared error (MSE) across the domain. These theoretical results are applied to isotonic and trend filtering distributional regression, yielding convergence rates consistent with those for mean estimation. Furthermore, a general upper bound is derived for distributional regression under non-convex constraints, with a specific application to neural network-based estimators.

Time series forecasting plays a vital role in various real-world applications and has attracted significant attention in recent decades. While recent methods have achieved remarkable accuracy by incorporating advanced inductive biases and training strategies, we observe that instance-level variations remain a significant challenge. These variations--stemming from distribution shifts, missing data, and long-tail patterns--often lead to suboptimal forecasts for specific instances, even when overall performance appears strong. To address this issue, we propose a model-agnostic framework, PIR, designed to enhance forecasting performance through Post-forecasting Identification and Revision. Specifically, PIR first identifies biased forecasting instances by estimating their accuracy. Based on this, the framework revises the forecasts using contextual information, including covariates and historical time series, from both local and global perspectives in a post-processing fashion. Extensive experiments on real-world datasets with mainstream forecasting models demonstrate that PIR effectively mitigates instance-level errors and significantly improves forecasting reliability.

Proportional fairness criteria inspired by democratic ideals of proportional representation have received growing attention in the clustering literature. Prior work has investigated them in two separate paradigms. Chen et al. [1] study centroid clustering, in which each data point's loss is determined by its distance to a representative point (centroid) chosen in its cluster. Caragiannis et al. [2] study non-centroid clustering, in which each data point's loss is determined by its maximum distance to any other data point in its cluster. We generalize both paradigms to introduce semi-centroid clustering, in which each data point's loss is a combination of its centroid and non-centroid losses, and study two proportional fairness criteria--the core, and its relaxation, fully justified representation (FJR). Our main result is a novel algorithm which achieves a constant approximation to the core, in polynomial time, even when the distance metrics used for centroid and non-centroid loss measurements are different. We also derive improved results for more restricted loss functions and the weaker FJR criterion, and establish lower bounds in each case.

We study the problem of learning a neural sampler to generate samples from discrete state spaces where the target probability mass function π e U is known up to a normalizing constant, which is an important task in fields such as statistical physics, machine learning, combinatorial optimization, etc. To better address this challenging task when the state space has a large cardinality and the distribution is multi-modal, we propose Masked Diffusion Neural Sampler (MDNS), a novel framework for training discrete neural samplers by aligning two path measures through a family of learning objectives, theoretically grounded in the stochastic optimal control of the continuous-time Markov chains. We validate the efficiency and scalability of MDNS through extensive experiments on various distributions with distinct statistical properties, where MDNS learns to accurately sample from the target distributions despite the extremely high problem dimensions and outperforms other learning-based baselines by a large margin. A comprehensive study of ablations and extensions is also provided to demonstrate the efficacy and potential of the proposed framework.

Large language models (LLMs) frequently generate hallucinations--content that deviates from factual accuracy or provided context--posing challenges for diagnosis due to the complex interplay of underlying causes. This paper introduces a subsequence association framework to systematically trace and understand hallucinations. Our key insight is that hallucinations arise when dominant hallucinatory associations outweigh faithful ones. Through theoretical and empirical analyses, we demonstrate that decoder-only transformers effectively function as subsequence embedding models, with linear layers encoding input-output associations. We propose a tracing algorithm that identifies causal subsequences by analyzing hallucination probabilities across randomized input contexts. Experiments show our method outperforms standard attribution techniques in identifying hallucination causes and aligns with evidence from the model's training corpus. This work provides a unified perspective on hallucinations and a robust framework for their tracing and analysis.