We study the denoising of piecewise smooth graph signals that exhibit inhomogeneous levels of smoothness over a graph, where the value at each node can be vector-valued. We extend the graph trend filtering framework to denoising vector-valued graph signals with a family of non-convex regularizers that exhibit superior recovery performance over existing convex regularizers. We establish the statistical error rates of first-order stationary points of the proposed non-convex method for generic graphs using oracle inequalities. We further present an ADMM-based algorithm to solve the proposed method and analyze its convergence. We present numerical experiments on both synthetic and real-world data for denoising, support recovery, and semi-supervised classification.

We propose a new, complementary approach to interpretability, in which machines are not considered as experts whose role it is to suggest what should be done and why, but rather as advisers. The objective of these models is to communicate to a human decision-maker not what to decide but how to decide. In this way, we propose that machine learning pipelines will be more readily adopted, since they allow a decision-maker to retain agency. Specifically, we develop a framework for learning representations by humans, for humans, in which we learn representations of inputs ("advice") that are effective for human decision-making. Representation-generating models are trained with humans-in-the-loop, implicitly incorporating the human decision-making model. We show that optimizing for human decision-making rather than accuracy is effective in promoting good decisions in various classification tasks while inherently maintaining a sense of interpretability.

Disentangled representations have recently been shown to improve data efficiency, generalisation, robustness and interpretability in simple supervised and reinforcement learning tasks. To extend such results to more complex domains, it is important to address a major shortcoming of the current state of the art unsupervised disentangling approaches -- high convergence variance, whereby different disentanglement quality may be achieved by the same model depending on its initial state. The existing model selection methods require access to the ground truth attribute labels, which are not available for most datasets. Hence, the benefits of disentangled representations have not yet been fully explored in practical applications. This paper addresses this problem by introducing a simple yet robust and reliable method for unsupervised disentangled model selection. We show that our approach performs comparably to the existing supervised alternatives across 5400 models from six state of the art unsupervised disentangled representation learning model classes.

We present a multi-task learning formulation for Deep Gaussian processes (DGPs), describing a multi-kernel architecture for DGP layers. The proposed model is a non-linear mixture of latent Gaussian processes (GPs) with components shared between the tasks, in addition to separate task-specific components. Our formulation allows for learning complex relationships between tasks. We benchmark our model on three real-world datasets showing empirically that our formulation is able to improve the learning performance and transfer information between the tasks, outperforming state-of-the-art GP-based single-task learning and multi-task learning models.

Supervised machine learning (ML) algorithms are aimed at maximizing classification performance under available energy and storage constraints. They try to map the training data to the corresponding labels while ensuring generalizability to unseen data. However, they do not integrate meaning-based relationships among labels in the decision process. On the other hand, natural language processing (NLP) algorithms emphasize the importance of semantic information. In this paper, we synthesize the complementary advantages of supervised ML and natural language processing algorithms into one method that we refer to as SECRET (Semantically Enhanced Classification of REal-world Tasks). SECRET performs classifications by fusing the semantic information of the labels with the available data: it combines the feature space of the supervised algorithms with the semantic space of the NLP algorithms and predicts labels based on this joint space. Experimental results indicate that, compared to traditional supervised learning, SECRET achieves up to 13.9% accuracy and 13.5% F1 score improvements. Moreover, compared to ensemble methods, SECRET achieves up to 12.6% accuracy and 13.8% F1 score improvements. This points to a new research direction for supervised classification by incorporating semantic information.

In rank aggregation, preferences from different users are summarized into a total order under the homogeneous data assumption. Thus, model misspecification arises and rank aggregation methods take some noise models into account. However, they all rely on certain noise model assumptions and cannot handle agnostic noises in the real world. In this paper, we propose CoarsenRank, which rectifies the underlying data distribution directly and aligns it to the homogeneous data assumption without involving any noise model. To this end, we define a neighborhood of the data distribution over which Bayesian inference of CoarsenRank is performed, and therefore the resultant posterior enjoys robustness against model misspecification. Further, we derive a tractable closed-form solution for CoarsenRank making it computationally efficient. Experiments on real-world datasets show that CoarsenRank is fast and robust, achieving consistent improvement over baseline methods.

Automatic Machine Learning (Auto-ML) systems tackle the problem of automating the design of prediction models or pipelines for data science. In this paper, we present Lifelong Bayesian Optimization (LBO), an online, multitask Bayesian optimization (BO) algorithm designed to solve the problem of model selection for datasets arriving and evolving over time. To be suitable for Lifelong Bayesian Optimization, an algorithm needs to scale with the ever-increasing size of the dataset, and should be able to leverage past optimizations in learning the current best model. We cast the problem of model selection as a black-box function optimization problem. In LBO, we exploit the correlation between functions by using components of previously learned functions to speed up the learning process for newly arriving datasets. Experiments on real and synthetic data show that LBO outperforms standard BO algorithms applied repeatedly on the data.

Abstract: Predicting traffic incident duration is a major challenge for many traffic centres around the world. Most research studies focus on predicting the incident duration on motorways rather than arterial roads, due to a high network complexity and lack of data. In this paper we propose a bi-level framework for predicting the accident duration on arterial road networks in Sydney, based on operational requirements of incident clearance target which is less than 45 minutes. Using incident baseline information, we first deploy a classification method using various ensemble tree models in order to predict whether a new incident will be cleared in less than 45min or not. If the incident was classified as short-term, then various regression models are developed for predicting the actual incident duration in minutes by incorporating various traffic flow features. After outlier removal and intensive model hyper-parameter tuning through randomized search and cross-validation, we show that the extreme gradient boost approach outperformed all models, including the gradient-boosted decision-trees by almost 53%. Finally, we perform a feature importance evaluation for incident duration prediction and show that the best prediction results are obtained when leveraging the real-time traffic flow in vicinity road sections to the reported accident location. Initial methods used to predict the incident duration were 1. Introduction Bayesian classifiers [5], discrete choice models (DCM) [6], probabilistic distribution analyses [7], and the hazard-based Traffic congestion is a major concern for many cities duration models (HBDM) [8].

In classical Hawkes process, the baseline intensity and triggering kernel are assumed to be a constant and parametric function respectively, which limits the model flexibility. To generalize it, we present a fully Bayesian nonparametric model, namely Gaussian process modulated Hawkes process and propose an EM-variational inference scheme. In this model, a transformation of Gaussian process is used as a prior on the baseline intensity and triggering kernel. By introducing a latent branching structure, the inference of baseline intensity and triggering kernel is decoupled and the variational inference scheme is embedded into an EM framework naturally. We also provide a series of schemes to accelerate the inference. Results of synthetic and real data experiments show that the underlying baseline intensity and triggering kernel can be recovered without parametric restriction and our Bayesian nonparametric estimation is superior to other state of the arts.

Overparameterized models that interpolate training data often display surprisingly good generalization properties. Specifically, minimum norm solutions have been shown to generalize well in the overparameterized, interpolating regime. This paper introduces a new framework for active learning based on the notion of minimum norm interpolators. We analytically study its properties and behavior in the kernel-based setting, and present experimental studies with kernel methods and neural networks. In general, active learning algorithms adaptively select examples for labeling that (1) rule-out as many (incompatible) classifiers as possible at each step and/or (2) discover cluster structure in unlabeled data and label representative examples from each cluster. We show that our new active learning approach based on a minimum norm heuristic automatically exploits both these strategies. The success of deep learning systems has sparked interest in understanding how and why overparameterized models that interpolate the training data often display surprisingly good generalization properties [27, 11, 38, 12, 8, 1, 10, 23]. Notably, it is now understood that mininum norm solutions have the potential to generalize well in the overparameterized, interpolating regime [11, 9, 23, 25].