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 Statistical Learning


Paired-Consistency: An Example-Based Model-Agnostic Approach to Fairness Regularization in Machine Learning

arXiv.org Machine Learning

As AI systems develop in complexity it is becoming increasingly hard to ensure non-discrimination on the basis of protected attributes such as gender, age, and race. Many recent methods have been developed for dealing with this issue as long as the protected attribute is explicitly available for the algorithm. We address the setting where this is not the case (with either no explicit protected attribute, or a large set of them). Instead, we assume the existence of a fair domain expert capable of generating an extension to the labeled dataset - a small set of example pairs, each having a different value on a subset of protected variables, but judged to warrant a similar model response. We define a performance metric - paired consistency. Paired consistency measures how close the output (assigned by a classifier or a regressor) is on these carefully selected pairs of examples for which fairness dictates identical decisions. In some cases consistency can be embedded within the loss function during optimization and serve as a fairness regularizer, and in others it is a tool for fair model selection. We demonstrate our method using the well studied Income Census dataset.


Animal Wildlife Population Estimation Using Social Media Images Collections

arXiv.org Machine Learning

We are losing biodiversity at an unprecedented scale and in many cases, we do not even know the basic data for the species. Traditional methods for wildlife monitoring are inadequate. Development of new computer vision tools enables the use of images as the source of information about wildlife. Social media is the rich source of wildlife images, which come with a huge bias, thus thwarting traditional population size estimate approaches. Here, we present a new framework to take into account the social media bias when using this data source to provide wildlife population size estimates. We show that, surprisingly, this is a learnable and potentially solvable problem.


Charting the Right Manifold: Manifold Mixup for Few-shot Learning

arXiv.org Machine Learning

Few-shot learning algorithms aim to learn model parameters capable of adapting to unseen classes with the help of only a few labeled examples. A recent regularization technique - Manifold Mixup focuses on learning a general-purpose representation, robust to small changes in the data distribution. Since the goal of few-shot learning is closely linked to robust representation learning, we study Manifold Mixup in this problem setting. Self-supervised learning is another technique that learns semantically meaningful features, using only the inherent structure of the data. This work investigates the role of learning relevant feature manifold for few-shot tasks using self-supervision and regularization techniques. We observe that regularizing the feature manifold, enriched via self-supervised techniques, with Manifold Mixup significantly improves few-shot learning performance. We show that our proposed method S2M2 beats the current state-of-the-art accuracy on standard few-shot learning datasets like CIFAR-FS, CUB and mini-ImageNet by 3-8%. Through extensive experimentation, we show that the features learned using our approach generalize to complex few-shot evaluation tasks, cross-domain scenarios and are robust against slight changes to data distribution.


Transferring knowledge from monitored to unmonitored areas for forecasting parking spaces

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Smart cities around the world have begun monitoring parking areas in order to estimate available parking spots and help drivers looking for parking. The current results are promising, indeed. However, existing approaches are limited by the high cost of sensors that need to be installed throughout the city in order to achieve an accurate estimation. This work investigates the extension of estimating parking information from areas equipped with sensors to areas where they are missing. To this end, the similarity between city neighborhoods is determined based on background data, i.e., from geographic information systems. Using the derived similarity values, we analyze the adaptation of occupancy rates from monitored- to unmonitored parking areas.


Machine Learning: An Introduction

#artificialintelligence

When most people hear Machine Learning, they picture a robot or some futuristic fantasy. However, it is already here and in fact has been there for almost decades in some specialized areas such as OCR. But, the first breakthrough that took over the world way back in the 1990s was the spam filter. Following this, are now hundreds of ML applications that have now quietly powered hundreds of products and features that you use regularly, say better recommendations on E-commerce portals (or) a voice search. Artificial Intelligence is a technique which allows the machines to act like humans by replicating their behavior.


Machine Learning Types in Records Management RecordPoint

#artificialintelligence

With the advent of big data, it has become more difficult for a human records manager to ensure they classify all information for retention. There are finally ways to deal with the massive scale of unstructured data through the application of modern machine learning, and artificial intelligence (AI) approaches. In this article, we will cover the types of machine learning that are useful for records management. The conventional approach is to have users categorize records as they create them. But, this approach does not scale with the volume of data now under management. The extra workload is disruptive to users who are trying to do their real jobs.


Estimating sex and age for forensic applications using machine learning based on facial measurements from frontal cephalometric landmarks

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Facial analysis permits many investigations some of the most important of which are craniofacial identification, facial recognition, and age and sex estimation. In forensics, photo-anthropometry describes the study of facial growth and allows the identification of patterns in facial skull development by using a group of cephalometric landmarks to estimate anthropological information. In several areas, automation of manual procedures has achieved advantages over and similar measurement confidence as a forensic expert. This manuscript presents an approach using photo-anthropometric indexes, generated from frontal faces cephalometric landmarks, to create an artificial neural network classifier that allows the estimation of anthropological information, in this specific case age and sex. The work is focused on four tasks: i) sex estimation over ages from 5 to 22 years old, evaluating the interference of age on sex estimation; ii) age estimation from photo-anthropometric indexes for four age intervals (1 year, 2 years, 4 years and 5 years); iii) age group estimation for thresholds of over 14 and over 18 years old; and; iv) the provision of a new data set, available for academic purposes only, with a large and complete set of facial photo-anthropometric points marked and checked by forensic experts, measured from over 18,000 faces of individuals from Brazil over the last 4 years. The proposed classifier obtained significant results, using this new data set, for the sex estimation of individuals over 14 years old, achieving accuracy values greater than 0.85 by the F_1 measure. For age estimation, the accuracy results are 0.72 for measure with an age interval of 5 years. For the age group estimation, the measures of accuracy are greater than 0.93 and 0.83 for thresholds of 14 and 18 years, respectively.


Model inference for Ordinary Differential Equations by parametric polynomial kernel regression

arXiv.org Machine Learning

Model inference for dynamical systems aims to estimate the future behaviour of a system from observations. Purely model-free statistical methods, such as Artificial Neural Networks, tend to perform poorly for such tasks. They are therefore not well suited to many questions from applications, for example in Bayesian filtering and reliability estimation. This work introduces a parametric polynomial kernel method that can be used for inferring the future behaviour of Ordinary Differential Equation models, including chaotic dynamical systems, from observations. Using numerical integration techniques, parametric representations of Ordinary Differential Equations can be learnt using Backpropagation and Stochastic Gradient Descent. The polynomial technique presented here is based on a nonparametric method, kernel ridge regression. However, the time complexity of nonparametric kernel ridge regression scales cubically with the number of training data points. Our parametric polynomial method avoids this manifestation of the curse of dimensionality, which becomes particularly relevant when working with large time series data sets. Two numerical demonstrations are presented. First, a simple regression test case is used to illustrate the method and to compare the performance with standard Artificial Neural Network techniques. Second, a more substantial test case is the inference of a chaotic spatio-temporal dynamical system, the Lorenz--Emanuel system, from observations. Our method was able to successfully track the future behaviour of the system over time periods much larger than the training data sampling rate. Finally, some limitations of the method are presented, as well as proposed directions for future work to mitigate these limitations.


Strengthening the Case for a Bayesian Approach to Car-following Model Calibration and Validation using Probabilistic Programming

arXiv.org Machine Learning

-- Compute and memory constraints have historically prevented traffic simulation software users from fully utilizing the predictive models underlying them. When calibrating car-following models, particularly, accommodations have included 1) using sensitivity analysis to limit the number of parameters to be calibrated, and 2) identifying only one set of parameter values using data collected from multiple car-following instances across multiple drivers. Shortcuts are further motivated by insufficient data set sizes, for which a driver may have too few instances to fully account for the variation in their driving behavior . In this paper, we demonstrate that recent technological advances can enable transportation researchers and engineers to overcome these constraints and produce calibration results that 1) outperform industry standard approaches, and 2) allow for a unique set of parameters to be estimated for each driver in a data set, even given a small amount of data. We propose a novel calibration procedure for car-following models based on Bayesian machine learning and probabilistic programming, and apply it to real-world data from a naturalistic driving study. We also discuss how this combination of mathematical and software tools can offer additional benefits such as more informative model validation and the incorporation of true-to-data uncertainty into simulation traces. Traffic simulation software packages are widely used in transportation engineering to estimate the impacts of potential changes to a roadway network and forecast system performance under future scenarios. These packages are underpinned by math-and physics-based models, which are designed to describe behavior at an aggregate (macroscopic) level or at the level of individual drivers (microscopic).


Debiasing Linear Prediction

arXiv.org Machine Learning

Standard methods in supervised learning separate training and prediction: the model is fit independently of any test points it may encounter. However, can knowledge of the next test point $\mathbf{x}_{\star}$ be exploited to improve prediction accuracy? We address this question in the context of linear prediction, showing how debiasing techniques can be used transductively to combat regularization bias. We first lower bound the $\mathbf{x}_{\star}$ prediction error of ridge regression and the Lasso, showing that they must incur significant bias in certain test directions. Then, building on techniques from semi-parametric inference, we provide non-asymptotic upper bounds on the $\mathbf{x}_{\star}$ prediction error of two transductive, debiased prediction rules. We conclude by showing the efficacy of our methods on both synthetic and real data, highlighting the improvements test-point-tailored debiasing can provide in settings with distribution shift.