Parametric shape optimization aims at minimizing an objective function f(x) where x are CAD parameters. This task is difficult when f is the output of an expensive-to-evaluate numerical simulator and the number of CAD parameters is large. Most often, the set of all considered CAD shapes resides in a manifold of lower effective dimension in which it is preferable to build the surrogate model and perform the optimization. In this work, we uncover the manifold through a high-dimensional shape mapping and build a new coordinate system made of eigenshapes. The surrogate model is learned in the space of eigenshapes: a regularized likelihood maximization provides the most relevant dimensions for the output. The final surrogate model is detailed (anisotropic) with respect to the most sensitive eigenshapes and rough (isotropic) in the remaining dimensions. Last, the optimization is carried out with a focus on the critical dimensions, the remaining ones being coarsely optimized through a random embedding and the manifold being accounted for through a replication strategy. At low budgets, the methodology leads to a more accurate model and a faster optimization than the classical approach of directly working with the CAD parameters.

Recently developed machine learning techniques, in association with the Internet of Things (IoT) allow for the implementation of a method of increasing oil production from heavy-oil wells. Steam flood injection, a widely used enhanced oil recovery technique, uses thermal and gravitational potential to mobilize and dilute heavy oil in situ to increase oil production. In contrast to traditional steam flood simulations based on principles of classic physics, we introduce here an approach using cutting-edge machine learning techniques that have the potential to provide a better way to describe the performance of steam flood. We propose a workflow to address a category of time-series data that can be analyzed with supervised machine learning algorithms and IoT. We demonstrate the effectiveness of the technique for forecasting oil production in steam flood scenarios. Moreover, we build an optimization system that recommends an optimal steam allocation plan, and show that it leads to a 3% improvement in oil production. We develop a minimum viable product on a cloud platform that can implement real-time data collection, transfer, and storage, as well as the training and implementation of a cloud-based machine learning model. This workflow also offers an applicable solution to other problems with similar time-series data structures, like predictive maintenance.

Policy gradient methods with actor-critic schemes demonstrate tremendous empirical successes, especially when the actors and critics are parameterized by neural networks. However, it remains less clear whether such "neural" policy gradient methods converge to globally optimal policies and whether they even converge at all. We answer both the questions affirmatively in the overparameterized regime. In detail, we prove that neural natural policy gradient converges to a globally optimal policy at a sublinear rate. Also, we show that neural vanilla policy gradient converges sublinearly to a stationary point. Meanwhile, by relating the suboptimality of the stationary points to the representation power of neural actor and critic classes, we prove the global optimality of all stationary points under mild regularity conditions. Particularly, we show that a key to the global optimality and convergence is the "compatibility" between the actor and critic, which is ensured by sharing neural architectures and random initializations across the actor and critic. To the best of our knowledge, our analysis establishes the first global optimality and convergence guarantees for neural policy gradient methods.

It is well known in astronomy that propagating non-Gaussian prediction uncertainty in photometric redshift estimates is key to reducing bias in downstream cosmological analyses. Similarly, likelihood-free inference approaches, which are beginning to emerge as a tool for cosmological analysis, require the full uncertainty landscape of the parameters of interest given observed data. However, most machine learning (ML) based methods with open-source software target point prediction or classification, and hence fall short in quantifying uncertainty in complex regression and parameter inference settings such as the applications mentioned above. As an alternative to methods that focus on predicting the response (or parameters) $\mathbf{y}$ from features $\mathbf{x}$, we provide nonparametric conditional density estimation (CDE) tools for approximating and validating the entire probability density $\mathrm{p}(\mathbf{y} \mid \mathbf{x})$ given training data for $\mathbf{x}$ and $\mathbf{y}$. As there is no one-size-fits-all CDE method, the goal of this work is to provide a comprehensive range of statistical tools and open-source software for nonparametric CDE and method assessment which can accommodate different types of settings and which in addition can easily be fit to the problem at hand. Specifically, we introduce CDE software packages in $\texttt{Python}$ and $\texttt{R}$ based on four ML prediction methods adapted and optimized for CDE: $\texttt{NNKCDE}$, $\texttt{RFCDE}$, $\texttt{FlexCode}$, and $\texttt{DeepCDE}$. Furthermore, we present the $\texttt{cdetools}$ package, which includes functions for computing a CDE loss function for model selection and tuning of parameters, together with diagnostics functions. We provide sample code in $\texttt{Python}$ and $\texttt{R}$ as well as examples of applications to photometric redshift estimation and likelihood-free cosmology via CDE.

Network Embedding is the task of learning continuous node representations for networks, which has been shown effective in a variety of tasks such as link prediction and node classification. Most of existing works aim to preserve different network structures and properties in low-dimensional embedding vectors, while neglecting the existence of noisy information in many real-world networks and the overfitting issue in the embedding learning process. Most recently, generative adversarial networks (GANs) based regularization methods are exploited to regularize embedding learning process, which can encourage a global smoothness of embedding vectors. These methods have very complicated architecture and suffer from the well-recognized non-convergence problem of GANs. In this paper, we aim to introduce a more succinct and effective local regularization method, namely adversarial training, to network embedding so as to achieve model robustness and better generalization performance. Firstly, the adversarial training method is applied by defining adversarial perturbations in the embedding space with an adaptive $L_2$ norm constraint that depends on the connectivity pattern of node pairs. Though effective as a regularizer, it suffers from the interpretability issue which may hinder its application in certain real-world scenarios. To improve this strategy, we further propose an interpretable adversarial training method by enforcing the reconstruction of the adversarial examples in the discrete graph domain. These two regularization methods can be applied to many existing embedding models, and we take DeepWalk as the base model for illustration in the paper. Empirical evaluations in both link prediction and node classification demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed methods.

We present a queuing model of parking dynamics and a model-based prediction method to provide real-time probabilistic forecasts of future parking occupancy. The queuing model has a non-homogeneous arrival rate and time-varying service time distribution. All statistical assumptions of the model are verified using data from 29 truck parking locations, each with between 55 and 299 parking spots. For each location and each spot the data specifies the arrival and departure times of a truck, for 16 months of operation. The modeling framework presented in this paper provides empirical support for queuing models adopted in many theoretical studies and policy designs. We discuss how our framework can be used to study parking problems in different environments. Based on the queuing model, we propose two prediction methods, a microscopic method and a macroscopic method, that provide a real-time probabilistic forecast of parking occupancy for an arbitrary forecast horizon. These model-based methods convert a probabilistic forecast problem into a parameter estimation problem that can be tackled using classical estimation methods such as regressions or pure machine learning algorithms. We characterize a lower bound for an arbitrary real-time prediction algorithm. We evaluate the performance of these methods using the truck data comparing the outcomes of their implementations with other model-based and model-free methods proposed in the literature.

We consider multi-level composite optimization problems where each mapping in the composition is the expectation over a family of random smooth mappings or the sum of some finite number of smooth mappings. We present a normalized proximal approximate gradient (NPAG) method where the approximate gradients are obtained via nested stochastic variance reduction. In order to find an approximate stationary point where the expected norm of its gradient mapping is less than $\epsilon$, the total sample complexity of our method is $O(\epsilon^{-3})$ in the expectation case, and $O(N+\sqrt{N}\epsilon^{-2})$ in the finite-sum case where $N$ is the total number of functions across all composition levels. In addition, the dependence of our total sample complexity on the number of composition levels is polynomial, rather than exponential as in previous work.

We study the problem of {\em properly} learning large margin halfspaces in the agnostic PAC model. In more detail, we study the complexity of properly learning $d$-dimensional halfspaces on the unit ball within misclassification error $\alpha \cdot \mathrm{OPT}_{\gamma} + \epsilon$, where $\mathrm{OPT}_{\gamma}$ is the optimal $\gamma$-margin error rate and $\alpha \geq 1$ is the approximation ratio. We give learning algorithms and computational hardness results for this problem, for all values of the approximation ratio $\alpha \geq 1$, that are nearly-matching for a range of parameters. Specifically, for the natural setting that $\alpha$ is any constant bigger than one, we provide an essentially tight complexity characterization. On the positive side, we give an $\alpha = 1.01$-approximate proper learner that uses $O(1/(\epsilon^2\gamma^2))$ samples (which is optimal) and runs in time $\mathrm{poly}(d/\epsilon) \cdot 2^{\tilde{O}(1/\gamma^2)}$. On the negative side, we show that {\em any} constant factor approximate proper learner has runtime $\mathrm{poly}(d/\epsilon) \cdot 2^{(1/\gamma)^{2-o(1)}}$, assuming the Exponential Time Hypothesis.

This paper presents an unsupervised method that trains neural source separation by using only multichannel mixture signals. Conventional neural separation methods require a lot of supervised data to achieve excellent performance. Although multichannel methods based on spatial information can work without such training data, they are often sensitive to parameter initialization and degraded with the sources located close to each other. The proposed method uses a cost function based on a spatial model called a complex Gaussian mixture model (cGMM). This model has the time-frequency (TF) masks and direction of arrivals (DoAs) of sources as latent variables and is used for training separation and localization networks that respectively estimate these variables. This joint training solves the frequency permutation ambiguity of the spatial model in a unified deep Bayesian framework. In addition, the pre-trained network can be used not only for conducting monaural separation but also for efficiently initializing a multichannel separation algorithm. Experimental results with simulated speech mixtures showed that our method outperformed a conventional initialization method.

Reducing network complexity has been a major research focus in recent years with the advent of mobile technology. Convolutional Neural Networks that perform various vision tasks without memory overhaul is the need of the hour. This paper focuses on qualitative and quantitative analysis of reducing the network complexity using an upper bound on the Vapnik-Chervonenkis dimension, pruning, and quantization. We observe a general trend in improvement of accuracies as we quantize the models. We propose a novel loss function that helps in achieving considerable sparsity at comparable accuracies to that of dense models. We compare various regularizations prevalent in the literature and show the superiority of our method in achieving sparser models that generalize well.