We introduce a semi-parametric Bayesian model for survival analysis. The model is centred on a parametric baseline hazard, and uses a Gaussian process to model variations away from it nonparametrically, as well as dependence on covariates. As opposed to many other methods in survival analysis, our framework does not impose unnecessary constraints in the hazard rate or in the survival function. Furthermore, our model handles left, right and interval censoring mechanisms common in survival analysis. We propose a MCMC algorithm to perform inference and an approximation scheme based on random Fourier features to make computations faster.

When the linear measurements of an instance of low-rank matrix recovery satisfy a restricted isometry property (RIP) --- i.e. they are approximately norm-preserving --- the problem is known to contain no spurious local minima, so exact recovery is guaranteed. In this paper, we show that moderate RIP is not enough to eliminate spurious local minima, so existing results can only hold for near-perfect RIP. In fact, counterexamples are ubiquitous: every $x$ is the spurious local minimum of a rank-1 instance of matrix recovery that satisfies RIP. One specific counterexample has RIP constant $\delta 1/2$, but causes randomly initialized stochastic gradient descent (SGD) to fail 12\% of the time. SGD is frequently able to avoid and escape spurious local minima, but this empirical result shows that it can occasionally be defeated by their existence.

We analyze stochastic gradient algorithms for optimizing nonconvex, nonsmooth finite-sum problems. In particular, the objective function is given by the summation of a differentiable (possibly nonconvex) component, together with a possibly non-differentiable but convex component. We propose a proximal stochastic gradient algorithm based on variance reduction, called ProxSVRG . Our main contribution lies in the analysis of ProxSVRG . It recovers several existing convergence results and improves/generalizes them (in terms of the number of stochastic gradient oracle calls and proximal oracle calls). In particular, ProxSVRG generalizes the best results given by the SCSG algorithm, recently proposed by [Lei et al., NIPS'17] for the smooth nonconvex case.

Solving statistical learning problems often involves nonconvex optimization. Despite the empirical success of nonconvex statistical optimization methods, their global dynamics, especially convergence to the desirable local minima, remain less well understood in theory. In this paper, we propose a new analytic paradigm based on diffusion processes to characterize the global dynamics of nonconvex statistical optimization. As a concrete example, we study stochastic gradient descent (SGD) for the tensor decomposition formulation of independent component analysis. In particular, we cast different phases of SGD into diffusion processes, i.e., solutions to stochastic differential equations.

We show experimentally that the algorithm CLARANS of Ng and Han (1994) finds better K-medoids solutions than the Voronoi iteration algorithm of Hastie et al. (2001). This finding, along with the similarity between the Voronoi iteration algorithm and Lloyd's K-means algorithm, motivates us to use CLARANS as a K-means initializer. We show that CLARANS outperforms other algorithms on 23/23 datasets with a mean decrease over k-means of 30% for initialization mean squared error (MSE) and 3% for final MSE. We introduce algorithmic improvements to CLARANS which improve its complexity and runtime, making it a viable initialization scheme for large datasets. Papers published at the Neural Information Processing Systems Conference.

Computing the stationary distribution of a large finite or countably infinite state space Markov Chain (MC) has become central in many problems such as statistical inference and network analysis. Standard methods involve large matrix multiplications as in power iteration, or simulations of long random walks to sample states from the stationary distribution, as in Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC). However these methods are computationally costly; either they involve operations at every state or they scale (in computation time) at least linearly in the size of the state space. In this paper, we provide a novel algorithm that answers whether a chosen state in a MC has stationary probability larger than some $\Delta \in (0,1)$. If so, it estimates the stationary probability.

The weighted k-nearest neighbors algorithm is one of the most fundamental non-parametric methods in pattern recognition and machine learning. The question of setting the optimal number of neighbors as well as the optimal weights has received much attention throughout the years, nevertheless this problem seems to have remained unsettled. In this paper we offer a simple approach to locally weighted regression/classification, where we make the bias-variance tradeoff explicit. Our formulation enables us to phrase a notion of optimal weights, and to efficiently find these weights as well as the optimal number of neighbors efficiently and adaptively, for each data point whose value we wish to estimate. The applicability of our approach is demonstrated on several datasets, showing superior performance over standard locally weighted methods.

Existing Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) methods are either based on general-purpose and domain-agnostic schemes, which can lead to slow convergence, or require hand-crafting of problem-specific proposals by an expert. We propose A-NICE-MC, a novel method to train flexible parametric Markov chain kernels to produce samples with desired properties. First, we propose an efficient likelihood-free adversarial training method to train a Markov chain and mimic a given data distribution. Then, we leverage flexible volume preserving flows to obtain parametric kernels for MCMC. Using a bootstrap approach, we show how to train efficient Markov Chains to sample from a prescribed posterior distribution by iteratively improving the quality of both the model and the samples.

We propose a new class of structured Schatten norms for tensors that includes two recently proposed norms (overlapped'' and "latent'') for convex-optimization-based tensor decomposition. Based on the properties of the structured Schatten norms, we mathematically analyze the performance of "latent'' approach for tensor decomposition, which was empirically found to perform better than the "overlapped'' approach in some settings. We show theoretically that this is indeed the case. In particular, when the unknown true tensor is low-rank in a specific mode, this approach performs as well as knowing the mode with the smallest rank. Along the way, we show a novel duality result for structures Schatten norms, which is also interesting in the general context of structured sparsity.

We consider the problem of estimating how well a model class is capable of fitting a distribution of labeled data. We show that it is often possible to accurately estimate this learnability'' even when given an amount of data that is too small to reliably learn any accurate model. Our first result applies to the setting where the data is drawn from a $d$-dimensional distribution with isotropic covariance, and the label of each datapoint is an arbitrary noisy function of the datapoint. In this setting, we show that with $O(\sqrt{d})$ samples, one can accurately estimate the fraction of the variance of the label that can be explained via the best linear function of the data. We extend these techniques to a binary classification, and show that the prediction error of the best linear classifier can be accurately estimated given $O(\sqrt{d})$ labeled samples.