In many predictive decision-making scenarios, such as credit scoring and academic testing, a decision-maker must construct a model (predicting some outcome) that accounts for agents' incentives to "game" their features in order to receive better decisions. Whereas the strategic classification literature generally assumes that agents' outcomes are not causally dependent on their features (and thus strategic behavior is a form of lying), we join concurrent work in modeling agents' outcomes as a function of their changeable attributes. Our formulation is the first to incorporate a crucial phenomenon: when agents act to change observable features, they may as a side effect perturb hidden features that causally affect their true outcomes. We consider three distinct desiderata for a decision-maker's model: accurately predicting agents' post-gaming outcomes (accuracy), incentivizing agents to improve these outcomes (improvement), and, in the linear setting, estimating the visible coefficients of the true causal model (causal precision). As our main contribution, we provide the first algorithms for learning accuracy-optimizing, improvement-optimizing, and causal-precision-optimizing linear regression models directly from data, without prior knowledge of agents' possible actions. These algorithms circumvent the hardness result of Miller et al. (2019) by allowing the decision maker to observe agents' responses to a sequence of decision rules, in effect inducing agents to perform causal interventions for free.

Many contemporary machine learning models require extensive tuning of hyperparameters to perform well. A variety of methods, such as Bayesian optimization, have been developed to automate and expedite this process. However, tuning remains extremely costly as it typically requires repeatedly fully training models. We propose to accelerate the Bayesian optimization approach to hyperparameter tuning for neural networks by taking into account the relative amount of information contributed by each training example. To do so, we leverage importance sampling (IS); this significantly increases the quality of the black-box function evaluations, but also their runtime, and so must be done carefully. Casting hyperparameter search as a multi-task Bayesian optimization problem over both hyperparameters and importance sampling design achieves the best of both worlds: by learning a parameterization of IS that trades-off evaluation complexity and quality, we improve upon Bayesian optimization state-of-the-art runtime and final validation error across a variety of datasets and complex neural architectures.

In the univariate case, we show that by comparing the individual complexities of univariate cause and effect, one can identify the cause and the effect, without considering their interaction at all. In our framework, complexities are captured by the reconstruction error of an autoencoder that operates on the quantiles of the distribution. Comparing the reconstruction errors of the two autoencoders, one for each variable, is shown to perform surprisingly well on the accepted causality directionality benchmarks. Hence, the decision as to which of the two is the cause and which is the effect may not be based on causality but on complexity. In the multivariate case, where one can ensure that the complexities of the cause and effect are balanced, we propose a new adversarial training method that mimics the disentangled structure of the causal model. We prove that in the multidimensional case, such modeling is likely to fit the data only in the direction of causality. Furthermore, a uniqueness result shows that the learned model is able to identify the underlying causal and residual (noise) components. Our multidimensional method outperforms the literature methods on both synthetic and real world datasets.

Fall is a leading cause of death which suffers the elderly and society. Timed Up and Go (TUG) test is a common tool for fall risk assessment. In this paper, we propose a method for predicting TUG score from gait characteristics extracted from video based on computer vision and machine learning technologies. First, 3D pose is estimated from video captured with 2D and 3D cameras during human motion and then a group of gait characteristics are computed from 3D pose series. After that, copula entropy is used to select those characteristics which are mostly associated with TUG score. Finally, the selected characteristics are fed into the predictive models to predict TUG score. Experiments on real world data demonstrated the effectiveness of the proposed method. As a byproduct, the associations between TUG score and several gait characteristics are discovered, which laid the scientific foundation of the proposed method and make the predictive models such built interpretable to clinical users.

Background: Depression has become a major health burden worldwide, and effective detection depression is a great public-health challenge. This Electroencephalography (EEG)-based research is to explore the effective biomarkers for depression recognition. Methods: Resting state EEG data was collected from 24 major depressive patients (MDD) and 29 normal controls using 128 channel HydroCel Geodesic Sensor Net (HCGSN). To better identify depression, we extracted different types of EEG features including linear features, nonlinear features and functional connectivity features phase lagging index (PLI) to comprehensively analyze the EEG signals in patients with MDD. And using different feature selection methods and classifiers to evaluate the optimal feature sets. Results: Functional connectivity feature PLI is superior to the linear features and nonlinear features. And when combining all the types of features to classify MDD patients, we can obtain the highest classification accuracy 82.31% using ReliefF feature selection method and logistic regression (LR) classifier. Analyzing the distribution of optimal feature set, it was found that intrahemispheric connection edges of PLI were much more than the interhemispheric connection edges, and the intrahemispheric connection edges had a significant differences between two groups. Conclusion: Functional connectivity feature PLI plays an important role in depression recognition. Especially, intrahemispheric connection edges of PLI might be an effective biomarker to identify depression. And statistic results suggested that MDD patients might exist functional dysfunction in left hemisphere.

Despite decades of research and recent progress in adaptive control and reinforcement learning, there remains a fundamental lack of understanding in designing controllers that provide robustness to inherent non-asymptotic uncertainties arising from models estimated with finite, noisy data. We propose a robust adaptive control algorithm that explicitly incorporates such non-asymptotic uncertainties into the control design. The algorithm has three components: (1) a least-squares nominal model estimator; (2) a bootstrap resampling method that quantifies non-asymptotic variance of the nominal model estimate; and (3) a non-conventional robust control design method using an optimal linear quadratic regulator (LQR) with multiplicative noise. A key advantage of the proposed approach is that the system identification and robust control design procedures both use stochastic uncertainty representations, so that the actual inherent statistical estimation uncertainty directly aligns with the uncertainty the robust controller is being designed against. We show through numerical experiments that the proposed robust adaptive controller can significantly outperform the certainty equivalent controller on both expected regret and measures of regret risk.

Canonical correlation analysis (CCA) has become a key tool for population neuroimaging for allowing investigation of association between many imaging and non-imaging variables. As age, sex and other variables are often a source of variability not of direct interest, previous work has used CCA on residuals from a model that removes these effects, then proceeded directly to permutation inference. We show that a simple permutation test, as typically used to identify significant modes of shared variation on such data adjusted for nuisance variables, produces inflated error rates. The reason is that residualisation introduces dependencies among the observations that violate the exchangeability assumption. Even in the absence of nuisance variables, however, a simple permutation test for CCA also leads to excess error rates for all canonical correlations other than the first. The reason is that a simple permutation scheme does not ignore the variability already explained by canonical variables of lower rank. Here we propose solutions for both problems: in the case of nuisance variables, we show that projecting the residuals to a lower dimensional space where exchangeability holds results in a valid permutation test; for more general cases, with or without nuisance variables, we propose estimating the canonical correlations in a stepwise manner, removing at each iteration the variance already explained. We also discuss how to address the multiplicity of tests via closure, which leads to an admissible test that is not conservative. We also provide a complete algorithm for permutation inference for CCA.

The study of model bias and variance with respect to decision boundaries is critically important in supervised classification. There is generally a tradeoff between the two, as fine-tuning of the decision boundary of a classification model to accommodate more boundary training samples (i.e., higher model complexity) may improve training accuracy (i.e., lower bias) but hurt generalization against unseen data (i.e., higher variance). By focusing on just classification boundary fine-tuning and model complexity, it is difficult to reduce both bias and variance. To overcome this dilemma, we take a different perspective and investigate a new approach to handle inaccuracy and uncertainty in the training data labels, which are inevitable in many applications where labels are conceptual and labeling is performed by human annotators. The process of classification can be undermined by uncertainty in the labels of the training data; extending a boundary to accommodate an inaccurately labeled point will increase both bias and variance. Our novel method can reduce both bias and variance by estimating the pointwise label uncertainty of the training set and accordingly adjusting the training sample weights such that those samples with high uncertainty are weighted down and those with low uncertainty are weighted up. In this way, uncertain samples have a smaller contribution to the objective function of the model's learning algorithm and exert less pull on the decision boundary. In a real-world physical activity recognition case study, the data presents many labeling challenges, and we show that this new approach improves model performance and reduces model variance.

Credit scoring is without a doubt one of the oldest applications of analytics. In recent years, a multitude of sophisticated classification techniques have been developed to improve the statistical performance of credit scoring models. Instead of focusing on the techniques themselves, this paper leverages alternative data sources to enhance both statistical and economic model performance. The study demonstrates how including call networks, in the context of positive credit information, as a new Big Data source has added value in terms of profit by applying a profit measure and profit-based feature selection. A unique combination of datasets, including call-detail records, credit and debit account information of customers is used to create scorecards for credit card applicants. Call-detail records are used to build call networks and advanced social network analytics techniques are applied to propagate influence from prior defaulters throughout the network to produce influence scores. The results show that combining call-detail records with traditional data in credit scoring models significantly increases their performance when measured in AUC. In terms of profit, the best model is the one built with only calling behavior features. In addition, the calling behavior features are the most predictive in other models, both in terms of statistical and economic performance. The results have an impact in terms of ethical use of call-detail records, regulatory implications, financial inclusion, as well as data sharing and privacy.

The quality of a graph is determined jointly by three key factors of the graph: nodes, edges and similarity measure (or edge weights), and is very crucial to the success of graph-based semi-supervised learning (SSL) approaches. Recently, dynamic graph, which means part/all its factors are dynamically updated during the training process, has demonstrated to be promising for graph-based semi-supervised learning. However, existing approaches only update part of the three factors and keep the rest manually specified during the learning stage. In this paper, we propose a novel graph-based semi-supervised learning approach to optimize all three factors simultaneously in an end-to-end learning fashion. To this end, we concatenate two neural networks (feature network and similarity network) together to learn the categorical label and semantic similarity, respectively, and train the networks to minimize a unified SSL objective function. We also introduce an extended graph Laplacian regularization term to increase training efficiency. Extensive experiments on several benchmark datasets demonstrate the effectiveness of our approach.