This work focuses on classification over time series data. When a time series is generated by non-stationary phenomena, the pattern relating the series with the class to be predicted may evolve over time (concept drift). Consequently, predictive models aimed to learn this pattern may become eventually obsolete, hence failing to sustain performance levels of practical use. To overcome this model degradation, online learning methods incrementally learn from new data samples arriving over time, and accommodate eventual changes along the data stream by implementing assorted concept drift strategies. In this manuscript we elaborate on the suitability of online learning methods to predict the road congestion level based on traffic speed time series data. We draw interesting insights on the performance degradation when the forecasting horizon is increased. As opposed to what is done in most literature, we provide evidence of the importance of assessing the distribution of classes over time before designing and tuning the learning model. This previous exercise may give a hint of the predictability of the different congestion levels under target. Experimental results are discussed over real traffic speed data captured by inductive loops deployed over Seattle (USA). Several online learning methods are analyzed, from traditional incremental learning algorithms to more elaborated deep learning models. As shown by the reported results, when increasing the prediction horizon, the performance of all models degrade severely due to the distribution of classes along time, which supports our claim about the importance of analyzing this distribution prior to the design of the model.

The last decade witnessed the development of algorithms that completely solve the identifiability problem for causal effects in hidden variable causal models associated with directed acyclic graphs. However, much of this machinery remains underutilized in practice owing to the complexity of estimating identifying functionals yielded by these algorithms. In this paper, we provide simple graphical criteria and semiparametric estimators that bridge the gap between identification and estimation for causal effects involving a single treatment and a single outcome. First, we provide influence function based doubly robust estimators that cover a significant subset of hidden variable causal models where the effect is identifiable. We further characterize an important subset of this class for which we demonstrate how to derive the estimator with the lowest asymptotic variance, i.e., one that achieves the semiparametric efficiency bound. Finally, we provide semiparametric estimators for any single treatment causal effect parameter identified via the aforementioned algorithms. The resulting estimators resemble influence function based estimators that are sequentially reweighted, and exhibit a partial double robustness property, provided the parts of the likelihood corresponding to a set of weight models are correctly specified. Our methods are easy to implement and we demonstrate their utility through simulations.

The study of complex networks is a significant development in modern science, and has enriched the social sciences, biology, physics, and computer science. Models and algorithms for such networks are pervasive in our society, and impact human behavior via social networks, search engines, and recommender systems to name a few. A widely used algorithmic technique for modeling such complex networks is to construct a low-dimensional Euclidean embedding of the vertices of the network, where proximity of vertices is interpreted as the likelihood of an edge. Contrary to the common view, we argue that such graph embeddings do not}capture salient properties of complex networks. The two properties we focus on are low degree and large clustering coefficients, which have been widely established to be empirically true for real-world networks. We mathematically prove that any embedding (that uses dot products to measure similarity) that can successfully create these two properties must have rank nearly linear in the number of vertices. Among other implications, this establishes that popular embedding techniques such as Singular Value Decomposition and node2vec fail to capture significant structural aspects of real-world complex networks. Furthermore, we empirically study a number of different embedding techniques based on dot product, and show that they all fail to capture the triangle structure.

Vector representations of graphs and relational structures, whether hand-crafted feature vectors or learned representations, enable us to apply standard data analysis and machine learning techniques to the structures. A wide range of methods for generating such embeddings have been studied in the machine learning and knowledge representation literature. However, vector embeddings have received relatively little attention from a theoretical point of view. Starting with a survey of embedding techniques that have been used in practice, in this paper we propose two theoretical approaches that we see as central for understanding the foundations of vector embeddings. We draw connections between the various approaches and suggest directions for future research.

Bayesian optimisation is a well-known sample-efficient method for the optimisation of expensive black-box functions. However when dealing with big search spaces the algorithm goes through several low function value regions before reaching the optimum of the function. Since the function evaluations are expensive in terms of both money and time, it may be desirable to alleviate this problem. One approach to subside this cold start phase is to use prior knowledge that can accelerate the optimisation. In its standard form, Bayesian optimisation assumes the likelihood of any point in the search space being the optimum is equal. Therefore any prior knowledge that can provide information about the optimum of the function would elevate the optimisation performance. In this paper, we represent the prior knowledge about the function optimum through a prior distribution. The prior distribution is then used to warp the search space in such a way that space gets expanded around the high probability region of function optimum and shrinks around low probability region of optimum. We incorporate this prior directly in function model (Gaussian process), by redefining the kernel matrix, which allows this method to work with any acquisition function, i.e. acquisition agnostic approach. We show the superiority of our method over standard Bayesian optimisation method through optimisation of several benchmark functions and hyperparameter tuning of two algorithms: Support Vector Machine (SVM) and Random forest.

In this paper, we propose a method of distributed stochastic gradient descent (SGD), with low communication load and computational complexity, and still fast convergence. To reduce the communication load, at each iteration of the algorithm, the worker nodes calculate and communicate some scalers, that are the directional derivatives of the sample functions in some \emph{pre-shared directions}. However, to maintain accuracy, after every specific number of iterations, they communicate the vectors of stochastic gradients. To reduce the computational complexity in each iteration, the worker nodes approximate the directional derivatives with zeroth-order stochastic gradient estimation, by performing just two function evaluations rather than computing a first-order gradient vector. The proposed method highly improves the convergence rate of the zeroth-order methods, guaranteeing order-wise faster convergence. Moreover, compared to the famous communication-efficient methods of model averaging (that perform local model updates and periodic communication of the gradients to synchronize the local models), we prove that for the general class of non-convex stochastic problems and with reasonable choice of parameters, the proposed method guarantees the same orders of communication load and convergence rate, while having order-wise less computational complexity. Experimental results on various learning problems in neural networks applications demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed approach compared to various state-of-the-art distributed SGD methods.

We study the problem of estimating treatment effects when the outcome of primary interest (e.g., long-term health status) is only seldom observed but abundant surrogate observations (e.g., short-term health outcomes) are available. To investigate the role of surrogates in this setting, we derive the semiparametric efficiency lower bounds of average treatment effect (ATE) both with and without presence of surrogates, as well as several intermediary settings. These bounds characterize the best-possible precision of ATE estimation in each case, and their difference quantifies the efficiency gains from optimally leveraging the surrogates in terms of key problem characteristics when only limited outcome data are available. We show these results apply in two important regimes: when the number of surrogate observations is comparable to primary-outcome observations and when the former dominates the latter. Importantly, we take a missing-data approach that circumvents strong surrogate conditions which are commonly assumed in previous literature but almost always fail in practice. To show how to leverage the efficiency gains of surrogate observations, we propose ATE estimators and inferential methods based on flexible machine learning methods to estimate nuisance parameters that appear in the influence functions. We show our estimators enjoy efficiency and robustness guarantees under weak conditions.

Acute infection, if not rapidly and accurately detected, can lead to sepsis, organ failure and even death. Currently, detection of acute infection as well as assessment of a patient's severity of illness are based on imperfect (and often superficial) measures of patient physiology. Characterization of a patient's immune response by quantifying expression levels of key genes from blood represents a potentially more timely and precise means of accomplishing both tasks. Machine learning methods provide a platform for development of deployment-ready classification models robust to the smaller, more heterogeneous datasets typical of healthcare. Identification of promising classifiers is dependent, in part, on hyperparameter optimization (HO), for which a number of approaches including grid search, random sampling and Bayesian optimization have been shown to be effective. In this analysis, we compare HO approaches for the development of diagnostic classifiers of acute infection and in-hospital mortality from gene expression of 29 diagnostic markers. Our comprehensive analysis of a multi-study patient cohort evaluates HO for three different classifier types and over a range of different optimization settings. Consistent with previous research, we find that Bayesian optimization is more efficient than grid search or random sampling-based methods, identifying promising classifiers with fewer evaluated hyperparameter configurations. However, we also find evidence of a lack of correspondence between internal and external validation performance of selected classifiers that complicates model selection for deployment as well as stymies development of clear-cut, practical guidelines for HO application in healthcare. We highlight the need for additional considerations about patient heterogeneity, dataset partitioning and optimization setup when applying HO methods in the healthcare context.

Graph convolutional networks have been successful in addressing graph-based tasks such as semi-supervised node classification. Existing methods use a network structure defined by the user based on experimentation with fixed number of layers and employ a layer-wise propagation rule to obtain the node embeddings. Designing an automatic process to define a problem-dependant architecture for graph convolutional networks can greatly help to reduce the computational complexity of the training process. In this paper, we propose a method to automatically build compact and task-specific graph convolutional networks. Experimental results on widely used publicly available datasets indicate that the proposed method outperforms the related graph-based learning algorithms in terms of classification performance and network compactness.

Multi-label classification consists in classifying an instance into two or more classes simultaneously. It is a very challenging task present in many real-world applications, such as classification of biology, image, video, audio, and text. Recently, the interest in interpretable classification models has grown, partially as a consequence of regulations such as the General Data Protection Regulation. In this context, we propose a multi-objective evolutionary algorithm that generates multiple rule-based multi-label classification models, allowing users to choose among models that offer different compromises between predictive power and interpretability. An important contribution of this work is that different from most algorithms, which usually generate models based on lists (ordered collections) of rules, our algorithm generates models based on sets (unordered collections) of rules, increasing interpretability. Also, by employing a conflict avoidance algorithm during the rule-creation, every rule within a given model is guaranteed to be consistent with every other rule in the same model. Thus, no conflict resolution strategy is required, evolving simpler models. We conducted experiments on synthetic and real-world datasets and compared our results with state-of-the-art algorithms in terms of predictive performance (F-Score) and interpretability (model size), and demonstrate that our best models had comparable F-Score and smaller model sizes.