The coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) global pandemic poses the threat of overwhelming healthcare systems with unprecedented demands for intensive care resources. Managing these demands cannot be effectively conducted without a nationwide collective effort that relies on data to forecast hospital demands on the national, regional, hospital and individual levels. To this end, we developed the COVID-19 Capacity Planning and Analysis System (CPAS) - a machine learning-based system for hospital resource planning that we have successfully deployed at individual hospitals and across regions in the UK in coordination with NHS Digital. In this paper, we discuss the main challenges of deploying a machine learning-based decision support system at national scale, and explain how CPAS addresses these challenges by (1) defining the appropriate learning problem, (2) combining bottom-up and top-down analytical approaches, (3) using state-of-the-art machine learning algorithms, (4) integrating heterogeneous data sources, and (5) presenting the result with an interactive and transparent interface. CPAS is one of the first machine learning-based systems to be deployed in hospitals on a national scale to address the COVID-19 pandemic - we conclude the paper with a summary of the lessons learned from this experience.

We propose Multi-Level Local SGD, a distributed gradient method for learning a smooth, non-convex objective in a heterogeneous multi-level network. Our network model consists of a set of disjoint sub-networks, with a single hub and multiple worker nodes; further, worker nodes may have different operating rates. The hubs exchange information with one another via a connected, but not necessarily complete communication network. In our algorithm, sub-networks execute a distributed SGD algorithm, using a hub-and-spoke paradigm, and the hubs periodically average their models with neighboring hubs. We first provide a unified mathematical framework that describes the Multi-Level Local SGD algorithm. We then present a theoretical analysis of the algorithm; our analysis shows the dependence of the convergence error on the worker node heterogeneity, hub network topology, and the number of local, sub-network, and global iterations. We back up our theoretical results via simulation-based experiments using both convex and non-convex objectives.

The Lasso is a method for high-dimensional regression, which is now commonly used when the number of covariates $p$ is of the same order or larger than the number of observations $n$. Classical asymptotic normality theory is not applicable for this model due to two fundamental reasons: $(1)$ The regularized risk is non-smooth; $(2)$ The distance between the estimator $\bf \widehat{\theta}$ and the true parameters vector $\bf \theta^\star$ cannot be neglected. As a consequence, standard perturbative arguments that are the traditional basis for asymptotic normality fail. On the other hand, the Lasso estimator can be precisely characterized in the regime in which both $n$ and $p$ are large, while $n/p$ is of order one. This characterization was first obtained in the case of standard Gaussian designs, and subsequently generalized to other high-dimensional estimation procedures. Here we extend the same characterization to Gaussian correlated designs with non-singular covariance structure. This characterization is expressed in terms of a simpler ``fixed design'' model. We establish non-asymptotic bounds on the distance between distributions of various quantities in the two models, which hold uniformly over signals $\bf \theta^\star$ in a suitable sparsity class, and values of the regularization parameter. As applications, we study the distribution of the debiased Lasso, and show that a degrees-of-freedom correction is necessary for computing valid confidence intervals.

It has been observed that design choices of neural networks are often crucial for their successful optimization. In this article, we therefore discuss the question if it is always possible to redesign a neural network so that it trains well with gradient descent. This yields the following universality result: If, for a given network, there is any algorithm that can find good network weights for a classification task, then there exists an extension of this network that reproduces these weights and the corresponding forward output by mere gradient descent training. The construction is not intended for practical computations, but it provides some orientation on the possibilities of meta-learning and related approaches.

Prior probability models are a central component of many image processing problems, but density estimation is notoriously difficult for high-dimensional signals such as photographic images. Deep neural networks have provided state-of-the-art solutions for problems such as denoising, which implicitly rely on a prior probability model of natural images. Here, we develop a robust and general methodology for making use of this implicit prior. We rely on a little-known statistical result due to Miyasawa (1961), who showed that the least-squares solution for removing additive Gaussian noise can be written directly in terms of the gradient of the log of the noisy signal density. We use this fact to develop a stochastic coarse-to-fine gradient ascent procedure for drawing high-probability samples from the implicit prior embedded within a CNN trained to perform blind (i.e., unknown noise level) least-squares denoising. A generalization of this algorithm to constrained sampling provides a method for using the implicit prior to solve any linear inverse problem, with no additional training. We demonstrate this general form of transfer learning in multiple applications, using the same algorithm to produce high-quality solutions for deblurring, super-resolution, inpainting, and compressive sensing.

In this paper, we present a novel stochastic optimization method, which uses the binary search technique with first order gradient based optimization method, called Binary Search Gradient Optimization (BSG) or BiGrad. In this optimization setup, a non-convex surface is treated as a set of convex surfaces. In BSG, at first, a region is defined, assuming region is convex. If region is not convex, then the algorithm leaves the region very fast and defines a new one, otherwise, it tries to converge at the optimal point of the region. In BSG, core purpose of binary search is to decide, whether region is convex or not in logarithmic time, whereas, first order gradient based method is primarily applied, to define a new region. In this paper, Adam is used as a first order gradient based method, nevertheless, other methods of this class may also be considered. In deep neural network setup, it handles the problem of vanishing and exploding gradient efficiently. We evaluate BSG on the MNIST handwritten digit, IMDB, and CIFAR10 data set, using logistic regression and deep neural networks. We produce more promising results as compared to other first order gradient based optimization methods. Furthermore, proposed algorithm generalizes significantly better on unseen data as compared to other methods.

This research proposes to use the Moreau-Yosida envelope to stabilize the convergence behavior of bi-level Hyperparameter optimization solvers, and introduces the new algorithm called Moreau-Yosida regularized Hyperparameter Optimization (MY-HPO) algorithm. Theoretical analysis on the correctness of the MY-HPO solution and initial convergence analysis is also provided. Our empirical results show significant improvement in loss values for a fixed computation budget, compared to the state-of-art bi-level HPO solvers.

Product search is the most common way for people to satisfy their shopping needs on e-commerce websites. Products are typically annotated with one of several broad categorical tags, such as "Clothing" or "Electronics", as well as finer-grained categories like "Refrigerator" or "TV", both under "Electronics". These tags are used to construct a hierarchy of query categories. Feature distributions such as price and brand popularity vary wildly across query categories. In addition, feature importance for the purpose of CTR/CVR predictions differs from one category to another. In this work, we leverage the Mixture of Expert (MoE) framework to learn a ranking model that specializes for each query category. In particular, our gate network relies solely on the category ids extracted from the user query. While classical MoE's pick expert towers spontaneously for each input example, we explore two techniques to establish more explicit and transparent connections between the experts and query categories. To help differentiate experts on their domain specialties, we introduce a form of adversarial regularization among the expert outputs, forcing them to disagree with one another. As a result, they tend to approach each prediction problem from different angles, rather than copying one another. This is validated by a much stronger clustering effect of the gate output vectors under different categories. In addition, soft gating constraints based on the categorical hierarchy are imposed to help similar products choose similar gate values. and make them more likely to share similar experts. This allows aggregation of training data among smaller sibling categories to overcome data scarcity issues among the latter. Experiments on a learning-to-rank dataset gathered from a leading e-commerce search log demonstrate that MoE with our improvements consistently outperforms competing models.

The selection of coarse-grained (CG) mapping operators is a critical step for CG molecular dynamics (MD) simulation. It is still an open question about what is optimal for this choice and there is a need for theory. The current state-of-the art method is mapping operators manually selected by experts. In this work, we demonstrate an automated approach by viewing this problem as supervised learning where we seek to reproduce the mapping operators produced by experts. We present a graph neural network based CG mapping predictor called DEEP SUPERVISED GRAPH PARTITIONING MODEL(DSGPM) that treats mapping operators as a graph segmentation problem. DSGPM is trained on a novel dataset, Human-annotated Mappings (HAM), consisting of 1,206 molecules with expert annotated mapping operators. HAM can be used to facilitate further research in this area. Our model uses a novel metric learning objective to produce high-quality atomic features that are used in spectral clustering. The results show that the DSGPM outperforms state-of-the-art methods in the field of graph segmentation. Finally, we find that predicted CG mapping operators indeed result in good CG MD models when used in simulation.

Max-margin methods for binary classification such as the support vector machine (SVM) have been extended to the structured prediction setting under the name of max-margin Markov networks ($M^3N$), or more generally structural SVMs. Unfortunately, these methods are statistically inconsistent when the relationship between inputs and labels is far from deterministic. We overcome such limitations by defining the learning problem in terms of a "max-min" margin formulation, naming the resulting method max-min margin Markov networks ($M^4N$). We prove consistency and finite sample generalization bounds for $M^4N$ and provide an explicit algorithm to compute the estimator. The algorithm achieves a generalization error of $O(1/\sqrt{n})$ for a total cost of $O(n)$ projection-oracle calls (which have at most the same cost as the max-oracle from $M^3N$). Experiments on multi-class classification, ordinal regression, sequence prediction and ranking demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed method.