Mixture of experts (MoE) is a popular class of models in statistics and machine learning that has sustained attention over the years, due to its flexibility and effectiveness. We consider the Gaussian-gated localized MoE (GLoME) regression model for modeling heterogeneous data. This model poses challenging questions with respect to the statistical estimation and model selection problems, including feature selection, both from the computational and theoretical points of view. We study the problem of estimating the number of components of the GLoME model, in a penalized maximum likelihood estimation framework. We provide a lower bound on the penalty that ensures a weak oracle inequality is satisfied by our estimator. To support our theoretical result, we perform numerical experiments on simulated and real data, which illustrate the performance of our finite-sample oracle inequality.

Weakly-supervised temporal action localization aims to localize actions in untrimmed videos with only video-level action category labels. Most of previous methods ignore the incompleteness issue of Class Activation Sequences (CAS), suffering from trivial localization results. To solve this issue, we introduce an adaptive mutual supervision framework (AMS) with two branches, where the base branch adopts CAS to localize the most discriminative action regions, while the supplementary branch localizes the less discriminative action regions through a novel adaptive sampler. The adaptive sampler dynamically updates the input of the supplementary branch with a sampling weight sequence negatively correlated with the CAS from the base branch, thereby prompting the supplementary branch to localize the action regions underestimated by the base branch. To promote mutual enhancement between these two branches, we construct mutual location supervision. Each branch leverages location pseudo-labels generated from the other branch as localization supervision. By alternately optimizing the two branches in multiple iterations, we progressively complete action regions. Extensive experiments on THUMOS14 and ActivityNet1.2 demonstrate that the proposed AMS method significantly outperforms the state-of-the-art methods.

Shapley values have become one of the most popular feature attribution explanation methods. However, most prior work has focused on post-hoc Shapley explanations, which can be computationally demanding due to its exponential time complexity and preclude model regularization based on Shapley explanations during training. Thus, we propose to incorporate Shapley values themselves as latent representations in deep models thereby making Shapley explanations first-class citizens in the modeling paradigm. This intrinsic explanation approach enables layer-wise explanations, explanation regularization of the model during training, and fast explanation computation at test time. We define the Shapley transform that transforms the input into a Shapley representation given a specific function. We operationalize the Shapley transform as a neural network module and construct both shallow and deep networks, called ShapNets, by composing Shapley modules. We prove that our Shallow ShapNets compute the exact Shapley values and our Deep ShapNets maintain the missingness and accuracy properties of Shapley values. We demonstrate on synthetic and real-world datasets that our ShapNets enable layer-wise Shapley explanations, novel Shapley regularizations during training, and fast computation while maintaining reasonable performance. Code is available at https://github.com/inouye-lab/ShapleyExplanationNetworks.

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Do you need to classify data or predict outcomes? Are you having trouble getting your machine learning project off the ground? There are a number of techniques available to help you achieve lift-off. Some of the eight methods discussed below will accelerate your machine learning process dramatically, while others will not only accelerate the process but also help you build a better model. Not all of these methods will be suitable for a given project, but the first one--exploratory data analysis--should never be left out.

Building operations represent a significant percentage of the total primary energy consumed in most countries due to the proliferation of Heating, Ventilation and Air-Conditioning (HVAC) installations in response to the growing demand for improved thermal comfort. Reducing the associated energy consumption while maintaining comfortable conditions in buildings are conflicting objectives and represent a typical optimization problem that requires intelligent system design. Over the last decade, different methodologies based on the Artificial Intelligence (AI) techniques have been deployed to find the sweet spot between energy use in HVAC systems and suitable indoor comfort levels to the occupants. This paper performs a comprehensive and an in-depth systematic review of AI-based techniques used for building control systems by assessing the outputs of these techniques, and their implementations in the reviewed works, as well as investigating their abilities to improve the energy-efficiency, while maintaining thermal comfort conditions. This enables a holistic view of (1) the complexities of delivering thermal comfort to users inside buildings in an energy-efficient way, and (2) the associated bibliographic material to assist researchers and experts in the field in tackling such a challenge. Among the 20 AI tools developed for both energy consumption and comfort control, functions such as identification and recognition patterns, optimization, predictive control. Based on the findings of this work, the application of AI technology in building control is a promising area of research and still an ongoing, i.e., the performance of AI-based control is not yet completely satisfactory. This is mainly due in part to the fact that these algorithms usually need a large amount of high-quality real-world data, which is lacking in the building or, more precisely, the energy sector.

The global ambitions of a carbon-neutral society necessitate a stable and robust smart grid that capitalises on frequency reserves of renewable energy. Frequency reserves are resources that adjust power production or consumption in real time to react to a power grid frequency deviation. Revenue generation motivates the availability of these resources for managing such deviations. However, limited research has been conducted on data-driven decisions and optimal bidding strategies for trading such capacities in multiple frequency reserves markets. We address this limitation by making the following research contributions. Firstly, a generalised model is designed based on an extensive study of critical characteristics of global frequency reserves markets. Secondly, three bidding strategies are proposed, based on this market model, to capitalise on price peaks in multi-stage markets. Two strategies are proposed for non-reschedulable loads, in which case the bidding strategy aims to select the market with the highest anticipated price, and the third bidding strategy focuses on rescheduling loads to hours on which highest reserve market prices are anticipated. The third research contribution is an Artificial Intelligence (AI) based bidding optimization framework that implements these three strategies, with novel uncertainty metrics that supplement data-driven price prediction. Finally, the framework is evaluated empirically using a case study of multiple frequency reserves markets in Finland. The results from this evaluation confirm the effectiveness of the proposed bidding strategies and the AI-based bidding optimization framework in terms of cumulative revenue generation, leading to an increased availability of frequency reserves.

The significance of social media has increased manifold in the past few decades as it helps people from even the most remote corners of the world to stay connected. With the advent of technology, digital media has become more relevant and widely used than ever before and along with this, there has been a resurgence in the circulation of fake news and tweets that demand immediate attention. In this paper, we describe a novel Fake News Detection system that automatically identifies whether a news item is "real" or "fake", as an extension of our work in the CONSTRAINT COVID-19 Fake News Detection in English challenge. We have used an ensemble model consisting of pre-trained models followed by a statistical feature fusion network , along with a novel heuristic algorithm by incorporating various attributes present in news items or tweets like source, username handles, URL domains and authors as statistical feature. Our proposed framework have also quantified reliable predictive uncertainty along with proper class output confidence level for the classification task. We have evaluated our results on the COVID-19 Fake News dataset and FakeNewsNet dataset to show the effectiveness of the proposed algorithm on detecting fake news in short news content as well as in news articles. We obtained a best F1-score of 0.9892 on the COVID-19 dataset, and an F1-score of 0.9073 on the FakeNewsNet dataset.

Cognitive Diagnosis Models (CDMs) are a special family of discrete latent variable models that are widely used in modern educational, psychological, social and biological sciences. A key component of CDMs is a binary $Q$-matrix characterizing the dependence structure between the items and the latent attributes. Additionally, researchers also assume in many applications certain hierarchical structures among the latent attributes to characterize their dependence. In most CDM applications, the attribute-attribute hierarchical structures, the item-attribute $Q$-matrix, the item-level diagnostic model, as well as the number of latent attributes, need to be fully or partially pre-specified, which however may be subjective and misspecified as noted by many recent studies. This paper considers the problem of jointly learning these latent and hierarchical structures in CDMs from observed data with minimal model assumptions. Specifically, a penalized likelihood approach is proposed to select the number of attributes and estimate the latent and hierarchical structures simultaneously. An efficient expectation-maximization (EM) algorithm and a latent structure recovery algorithm are developed, and statistical consistency theory is also established under mild conditions. The good performance of the proposed method is illustrated by simulation studies and a real data application in educational assessment.

We introduce a nonlinear stochastic model reduction technique for high-dimensional stochastic dynamical systems that have a low-dimensional invariant effective manifold with slow dynamics, and high-dimensional, large fast modes. Given only access to a black box simulator from which short bursts of simulation can be obtained, we estimate the invariant manifold, a process of the effective (stochastic) dynamics on it, and construct an efficient simulator thereof. These estimation steps can be performed on-the-fly, leading to efficient exploration of the effective state space, without losing consistency with the underlying dynamics. This construction enables fast and efficient simulation of paths of the effective dynamics, together with estimation of crucial features and observables of such dynamics, including the stationary distribution, identification of metastable states, and residence times and transition rates between them.