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 Statistical Learning


Time-to-Green predictions for fully-actuated signal control systems with supervised learning

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Recently, efforts have been made to standardize signal phase and timing (SPaT) messages. These messages contain signal phase timings of all signalized intersection approaches. This information can thus be used for efficient motion planning, resulting in more homogeneous traffic flows and uniform speed profiles. Despite efforts to provide robust predictions for semi-actuated signal control systems, predicting signal phase timings for fully-actuated controls remains challenging. This paper proposes a time series prediction framework using aggregated traffic signal and loop detector data. We utilize state-of-the-art machine learning models to predict future signal phases' duration. The performance of a Linear Regression (LR), a Random Forest (RF), and a Long-Short-Term-Memory (LSTM) neural network are assessed against a naive baseline model. Results based on an empirical data set from a fully-actuated signal control system in Zurich, Switzerland, show that machine learning models outperform conventional prediction methods. Furthermore, tree-based decision models such as the RF perform best with an accuracy that meets requirements for practical applications.


Pushing the limits of fairness impossibility: Who's the fairest of them all?

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

The impossibility theorem of fairness is a foundational result in the algorithmic fairness literature. It states that outside of special cases, one cannot exactly and simultaneously satisfy all three common and intuitive definitions of fairness - demographic parity, equalized odds, and predictive rate parity. This result has driven most works to focus on solutions for one or two of the metrics. Rather than follow suit, in this paper we present a framework that pushes the limits of the impossibility theorem in order to satisfy all three metrics to the best extent possible. We develop an integer-programming based approach that can yield a certifiably optimal post-processing method for simultaneously satisfying multiple fairness criteria under small violations. We show experiments demonstrating that our post-processor can improve fairness across the different definitions simultaneously with minimal model performance reduction. We also discuss applications of our framework for model selection and fairness explainability, thereby attempting to answer the question: who's the fairest of them all?


An ensemble meta-estimator to predict source code testability

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Unlike most other software quality attributes, testability cannot be evaluated solely based on the characteristics of the source code. The effectiveness of the test suite and the budget assigned to the test highly impact the testability of the code under test. The size of a test suite determines the test effort and cost, while the coverage measure indicates the test effectiveness. Therefore, testability can be measured based on the coverage and number of test cases provided by a test suite, considering the test budget. This paper offers a new equation to estimate testability regarding the size and coverage of a given test suite. The equation has been used to label 23,000 classes belonging to 110 Java projects with their testability measure. The labeled classes were vectorized using 262 metrics. The labeled vectors were fed into a family of supervised machine learning algorithms, regression, to predict testability in terms of the source code metrics. Regression models predicted testability with an R2 of 0.68 and a mean squared error of 0.03, suitable in practice. Fifteen software metrics highly affecting testability prediction were identified using a feature importance analysis technique on the learned model. The proposed models have improved mean absolute error by 38% due to utilizing new criteria, metrics, and data compared with the relevant study on predicting branch coverage as a test criterion. As an application of testability prediction, it is demonstrated that automated refactoring of 42 smelly Java classes targeted at improving the 15 influential software metrics could elevate their testability by an average of 86.87%.


Dynamic Template Initialization for Part-Aware Person Re-ID

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Many of the existing Person Re-identification (Re-ID) approaches depend on feature maps which are either partitioned to localize parts of a person or reduced to create a global representation. While part localization has shown significant success, it uses either na{\i}ve position-based partitions or static feature templates. These, however, hypothesize the pre-existence of the parts in a given image or their positions, ignoring the input image-specific information which limits their usability in challenging scenarios such as Re-ID with partial occlusions and partial probe images. In this paper, we introduce a spatial attention-based Dynamic Part Template Initialization module that dynamically generates part-templates using mid-level semantic features at the earlier layers of the backbone. Following a self-attention layer, human part-level features of the backbone are used to extract the templates of diverse human body parts using a simplified cross-attention scheme which will then be used to identify and collate representations of various human parts from semantically rich features, increasing the discriminative ability of the entire model. We further explore adaptive weighting of part descriptors to quantify the absence or occlusion of local attributes and suppress the contribution of the corresponding part descriptors to the matching criteria. Extensive experiments on holistic, occluded, and partial Re-ID task benchmarks demonstrate that our proposed architecture is able to achieve competitive performance. Codes will be included in the supplementary material and will be made publicly available.


A Bayesian Variational principle for dynamic Self Organizing Maps

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

We propose organisation conditions that yield a method for training SOM with adaptative neighborhood radius in a variational Bayesian framework. This method is validated on a non-stationary setting and compared in an high-dimensional setting with an other adaptative method.


Four Algorithms for Correlation Clustering: A Survey

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

In the Correlation Clustering problem, we are given a set of objects with pairwise similarity information. Our aim is to partition these objects into clusters that match this information as closely as possible. More specifically, the pairwise information is given as a weighted graph $G$ with its edges labelled as ``similar" or ``dissimilar" by a binary classifier. The goal is to produce a clustering that minimizes the weight of ``disagreements": the sum of the weights of similar edges across clusters and dissimilar edges within clusters. In this exposition we focus on the case when $G$ is complete and unweighted. We explore four approximation algorithms for the Correlation Clustering problem under this assumption. In particular, we describe the following algorithms: (i) the $17429-$approximation algorithm by Bansal, Blum, and Chawla, (ii) the $4-$approximation algorithm by Charikar, Guruswami, and Wirth (iii) the $3-$approximation algorithm by Ailon, Charikar, and Newman (iv) the $2.06-$approximation algorithm by Chawla, Makarychev, Schramm, and Yaroslavtsev.


Discovering Transferable Forensic Features for CNN-generated Images Detection

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Visual counterfeits are increasingly causing an existential conundrum in mainstream media with rapid evolution in neural image synthesis methods. Though detection of such counterfeits has been a taxing problem in the image forensics community, a recent class of forensic detectors -- universal detectors -- are able to surprisingly spot counterfeit images regardless of generator architectures, loss functions, training datasets, and resolutions. This intriguing property suggests the possible existence of transferable forensic features (T-FF) in universal detectors. In this work, we conduct the first analytical study to discover and understand T-FF in universal detectors. Our contributions are 2-fold: 1) We propose a novel forensic feature relevance statistic (FF-RS) to quantify and discover T-FF in universal detectors and, 2) Our qualitative and quantitative investigations uncover an unexpected finding: color is a critical T-FF in universal detectors. Code and models are available at https://keshik6.github.io/transferable-forensic-features/


Skeleton Prototype Contrastive Learning with Multi-Level Graph Relation Modeling for Unsupervised Person Re-Identification

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Person re-identification (re-ID) via 3D skeletons is an important emerging topic with many merits. Existing solutions rarely explore valuable body-component relations in skeletal structure or motion, and they typically lack the ability to learn general representations with unlabeled skeleton data for person re-ID. This paper proposes a generic unsupervised Skeleton Prototype Contrastive learning paradigm with Multi-level Graph Relation learning (SPC-MGR) to learn effective representations from unlabeled skeletons to perform person re-ID. Specifically, we first construct unified multi-level skeleton graphs to fully model body structure within skeletons. Then we propose a multi-head structural relation layer to comprehensively capture relations of physically-connected body-component nodes in graphs. A full-level collaborative relation layer is exploited to infer collaboration between motion-related body parts at various levels, so as to capture rich body features and recognizable walking patterns. Lastly, we propose a skeleton prototype contrastive learning scheme that clusters feature-correlative instances of unlabeled graph representations and contrasts their inherent similarity with representative skeleton features ("skeleton prototypes") to learn discriminative skeleton representations for person re-ID. Empirical evaluations show that SPC-MGR significantly outperforms several state-of-the-art skeleton-based methods, and it also achieves highly competitive person re-ID performance for more general scenarios.


Identifying and Overcoming Transformation Bias in Forecasting Models

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Log and square root transformations of target variable are routinely used in forecasting models to predict future sales. These transformations often lead to better performing models. However, they also introduce a systematic negative bias (under-forecasting). In this paper, we demonstrate the existence of this bias, dive deep into its root cause and introduce two methods to correct for the bias. We conclude that the proposed bias correction methods improve model performance (by up to 50%) and make a case for incorporating bias correction in modeling workflow. We also experiment with `Tweedie' family of cost functions which circumvents the transformation bias issue by modeling directly on sales. We conclude that Tweedie regression gives the best performance so far when modeling on sales making it a strong alternative to working with a transformed target variable.


Entropy Regularization for Population Estimation

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

While most frameworks for online sequential decision-making focus on the objective of maximizing reward, in practice this is rarely the sole objective. Other considerations may involve budget constraints, ensuring fair treatment, or estimating various population characteristics. There has been growing recognition that these other objectives must be formally integrated into sequential decision-making frameworks, especially if such algorithms are to be used in sensitive application areas [21]. In this work, we focus on the problem of maximizing reward while simultaneously estimating the population total (equivalently, mean) in a structured bandit setting. The most natural approach to this problem from a machine learning perspective is to use a model to predict the mean. However, this method is subject to the problem that adaptively collected data are subject to bias, which in turn biases the model estimates [29].