Improving irradiance forecasting is critical to further increase the share of solar in the energy mix. On a short time scale, fish-eye cameras on the ground are used to capture cloud displacements causing the local variability of the electricity production. As most of the solar radiation comes directly from the Sun, current forecasting approaches use its position in the image as a reference to interpret the cloud cover dynamics. However, existing Sun tracking methods rely on external data and a calibration of the camera, which requires access to the device. To address these limitations, this study introduces an image-based Sun tracking algorithm to localise the Sun in the image when it is visible and interpolate its daily trajectory from past observations. We validate the method on a set of sky images collected over a year at SIRTA's lab. Experimental results show that the proposed method provides robust smooth Sun trajectories with a mean absolute error below 1% of the image size.

Anti-money laundering (AML) regulations mandate financial institutions to deploy AML systems based on a set of rules that, when triggered, form the basis of a suspicious alert to be assessed by human analysts. Reviewing these cases is a cumbersome and complex task that requires analysts to navigate a large network of financial interactions to validate suspicious movements. Furthermore, these systems have very high false positive rates (estimated to be over 95\%). The scarcity of labels hinders the use of alternative systems based on supervised learning, reducing their applicability in real-world applications. In this work we present LaundroGraph, a novel self-supervised graph representation learning approach to encode banking customers and financial transactions into meaningful representations. These representations are used to provide insights to assist the AML reviewing process, such as identifying anomalous movements for a given customer. LaundroGraph represents the underlying network of financial interactions as a customer-transaction bipartite graph and trains a graph neural network on a fully self-supervised link prediction task. We empirically demonstrate that our approach outperforms other strong baselines on self-supervised link prediction using a real-world dataset, improving the best non-graph baseline by $12$ p.p. of AUC. The goal is to increase the efficiency of the reviewing process by supplying these AI-powered insights to the analysts upon review. To the best of our knowledge, this is the first fully self-supervised system within the context of AML detection.

We use methods from the Fock space and Segal-Bargmann theories to prove several results on the Gaussian RBF kernel in complex analysis. The latter is one of the most used kernels in modern machine learning kernel methods, and in support vector machines (SVMs) classification algorithms. Complex analysis techniques allow us to consider several notions linked to the RBF kernels like the feature space and the feature map, using the so-called Segal-Bargmann transform. We show also how the RBF kernels can be related to some of the most used operators in quantum mechanics and time frequency analysis, specifically, we prove the connections of such kernels with creation, annihilation, Fourier, translation, modulation and Weyl operators. For the Weyl operators, we also study a semigroup property in this case.

Many past works aim to improve visual reasoning in models by supervising feature importance (estimated by model explanation techniques) with human annotations such as highlights of important image regions. However, recent work has shown that performance gains from feature importance (FI) supervision for Visual Question Answering (VQA) tasks persist even with random supervision, suggesting that these methods do not meaningfully align model FI with human FI. In this paper, we show that model FI supervision can meaningfully improve VQA model accuracy as well as performance on several Right-for-the-Right-Reason (RRR) metrics by optimizing for four key model objectives: (1) accurate predictions given limited but sufficient information (Sufficiency); (2) max-entropy predictions given no important information (Uncertainty); (3) invariance of predictions to changes in unimportant features (Invariance); and (4) alignment between model FI explanations and human FI explanations (Plausibility). Our best performing method, Visual Feature Importance Supervision (VisFIS), outperforms strong baselines on benchmark VQA datasets in terms of both in-distribution and out-of-distribution accuracy. While past work suggests that the mechanism for improved accuracy is through improved explanation plausibility, we show that this relationship depends crucially on explanation faithfulness (whether explanations truly represent the model's internal reasoning). Predictions are more accurate when explanations are plausible and faithful, and not when they are plausible but not faithful. Lastly, we show that, surprisingly, RRR metrics are not predictive of out-of-distribution model accuracy when controlling for a model's in-distribution accuracy, which calls into question the value of these metrics for evaluating model reasoning. All supporting code is available at https://github.com/zfying/visfis

Coronary artery disease (CAD) is one of the most common cardiac diseases worldwide and causes disability and economic burden. It is the world's leading and most serious cause of mortality, with approximately 80% of deaths reported in low- and middle-income countries. The preferred and most precise diagnostic tool for CAD is angiography, but it is invasive, expensive, and technically demanding. However, the research community is increasingly interested in the computer-aided diagnosis of CAD via the utilization of machine learning (ML) methods. The purpose of this work is to present an e-diagnosis tool based on ML algorithms that can be used in a smart healthcare monitoring system. We applied the most accurate machine learning methods that have shown superior results in the literature to different medical datasets such as RandomForest, XGboost, MLP, J48, AdaBoost, NaiveBayes, LogitBoost, KNN. Every single classifier can be efficient on a different dataset. Thus, an ensemble model using majority voting was designed to take advantage of the well-performed single classifiers, Ensemble learning aims to combine the forecasts of multiple individual classifiers to achieve higher performance than individual classifiers in terms of precision, specificity, sensitivity, and accuracy; furthermore, we have benchmarked our proposed model with the most efficient and well-known ensemble models, such as Bagging, Stacking methods based on the cross-validation technique, The experimental results confirm that the ensemble majority voting approach based on the top 3 classifiers: MultilayerPerceptron, RandomForest, and AdaBoost, achieves the highest accuracy of 88,12% and outperforms all other classifiers. This study demonstrates that the majority voting ensemble approach proposed above is the most accurate machine learning classification approach for the prediction and detection of coronary artery disease.

The decentralized Federated Learning (FL) setting avoids the role of a potentially unreliable or untrustworthy central host by utilizing groups of clients to collaboratively train a model via localized training and model/gradient sharing. Most existing decentralized FL algorithms require synchronization of client models where the speed of synchronization depends upon the slowest client. In this work, we propose SWIFT: a novel wait-free decentralized FL algorithm that allows clients to conduct training at their own speed. Theoretically, we prove that SWIFT matches the gold-standard iteration convergence rate $\mathcal{O}(1/\sqrt{T})$ of parallel stochastic gradient descent for convex and non-convex smooth optimization (total iterations $T$). Furthermore, we provide theoretical results for IID and non-IID settings without any bounded-delay assumption for slow clients which is required by other asynchronous decentralized FL algorithms. Although SWIFT achieves the same iteration convergence rate with respect to $T$ as other state-of-the-art (SOTA) parallel stochastic algorithms, it converges faster with respect to run-time due to its wait-free structure. Our experimental results demonstrate that SWIFT's run-time is reduced due to a large reduction in communication time per epoch, which falls by an order of magnitude compared to synchronous counterparts. Furthermore, SWIFT produces loss levels for image classification, over IID and non-IID data settings, upwards of 50% faster than existing SOTA algorithms.

We propose a method for maximum likelihood estimation of path choice model parameters and arc travel time using data of different levels of granularity. Hitherto these two tasks have been tackled separately under strong assumptions. Using a small example, we illustrate that this can lead to biased results. Results on both real (New York yellow cab) and simulated data show strong performance of our method compared to existing baselines.

In medicine, researchers often seek to infer the effects of a given treatment on patients' outcomes. However, the standard methods for causal survival analysis make simplistic assumptions about the data-generating process and cannot capture complex interactions among patient covariates. We introduce the Dynamic Survival Transformer (DynST), a deep survival model that trains on electronic health records (EHRs). Unlike previous transformers used in survival analysis, DynST can make use of time-varying information to predict evolving survival probabilities. We derive a semi-synthetic EHR dataset from MIMIC-III to show that DynST can accurately estimate the causal effect of a treatment intervention on restricted mean survival time (RMST). We demonstrate that DynST achieves better predictive and causal estimation than two alternative models.

As service-oriented architecture becoming one of the most prevalent techniques to rapidly deliver functionalities to customers, increasingly more reusable software components have been published online in forms of web services. To create a mashup, it gets not only time-consuming but also error-prone for developers to find suitable services from such a sea of services. Service discovery and recommendation has thus attracted significant momentum in both academia and industry. This paper proposes a novel incremental recommend-as-you-go approach to recommending next potential service based on the context of a mashup under construction, considering services that have been selected to the current step as well as its mashup goal. The core technique is an algorithm of learning the embedding of services, which learns their past goal-driven context-aware decision making behaviors in addition to their semantic descriptions and co-occurrence history. A goal exclusionary negative sampling mechanism tailored for mashup development is also developed to improve training performance. Extensive experiments on a real-world dataset demonstrate the effectiveness of our approach.

Person re-identification is a key technology for analyzing video-based human behavior; however, its application is still challenging in practical situations due to the performance degradation for domains different from those in the training data. Here, we propose an environment-constrained adaptive network for reducing the domain gap. This network refines pseudo-labels estimated via a self-training scheme by imposing multi-camera constraints. The proposed method incorporates person-pair information without person identity labels obtained from the environment into the model training. In addition, we develop a method that appropriately selects a person from the pair that contributes to the performance improvement. We evaluate the performance of the network using public and private datasets and confirm the performance surpasses state-of-the-art methods in domains with overlapping camera views. To the best of our knowledge, this is the first study on domain-adaptive learning with multi-camera constraints that can be obtained in real environments.