Estimation of the average treatment effect (ATE) is a central problem in causal inference. In recent times, inference for the ATE in the presence of high-dimensional covariates has been extensively studied. Among the diverse approaches that have been proposed, augmented inverse probability weighting (AIPW) with cross-fitting has emerged a popular choice in practice. In this work, we study this cross-fit AIPW estimator under well-specified outcome regression and propensity score models in a high-dimensional regime where the number of features and samples are both large and comparable. Under assumptions on the covariate distribution, we establish a new central limit theorem for the suitably scaled cross-fit AIPW that applies without any sparsity assumptions on the underlying high-dimensional parameters. Our CLT uncovers two crucial phenomena among others: (i) the AIPW exhibits a substantial variance inflation that can be precisely quantified in terms of the signal-to-noise ratio and other problem parameters, (ii) the asymptotic covariance between the pre-cross-fit estimators is non-negligible even on the root-n scale. These findings are strikingly different from their classical counterparts. On the technical front, our work utilizes a novel interplay between three distinct tools--approximate message passing theory, the theory of deterministic equivalents, and the leave-one-out approach. We believe our proof techniques should be useful for analyzing other two-stage estimators in this high-dimensional regime. Finally, we complement our theoretical results with simulations that demonstrate both the finite sample efficacy of our CLT and its robustness to our assumptions.

Extrapolation of adverse biological (toxic) effects of chemicals is an important contribution to expand available hazard data in (eco)toxicology without the use of animals in laboratory experiments. In this work, we extrapolate effects based on a knowledge graph (KG) consisting of the most relevant effect data as domain-specific background knowledge. An effect prediction model, with and without background knowledge, was used to predict mean adverse biological effect concentration of chemicals as a prototypical type of stressors. The background knowledge improves the model prediction performance by up to 40\% in terms of $R^2$ (\ie coefficient of determination). We use the KG and KG embeddings to provide quantitative and qualitative insights into the predictions. These insights are expected to improve the confidence in effect prediction. Larger scale implementation of such extrapolation models should be expected to support hazard and risk assessment, by simplifying and reducing testing needs.

Today, there is an ongoing transition to more sustainable transportation, and an essential part of this transition is the switch from combustion engine vehicles to battery electric vehicles (BEVs). BEVs have many advantages from a sustainability perspective, but issues such as limited driving range and long recharge times slow down the transition from combustion engines. One way to mitigate these issues is by performing battery thermal preconditioning, which increases the energy efficiency of the battery. However, to optimally perform battery thermal preconditioning, the vehicle usage pattern needs to be known, i.e., how and when the vehicle will be used. This study attempts to predict the departure time and distance of the first drive each day using different online machine learning models. The online machine learning models are trained and evaluated on historical driving data collected from a fleet of BEVs during the COVID-19 pandemic. Additionally, the prediction models are extended to quantify the uncertainty of their predictions, which can be used as guidance to whether the prediction should be used or dismissed. We show that the best-performing prediction models yield an aggregated mean absolute error of 2.75 hours when predicting departure time and 13.37 km when predicting trip distance.

Abstract--Membership Inference Attacks (MIAs) infer whether a data point is in the training data of a machine learning model. It is a threat while being in the training data is private information of a data point. Intuitively, data points that MIA accurately detects are vulnerable. Considering those data points may exist in different target models susceptible to multiple MIAs, the vulnerability of data points under multiple MIAs and target models is worth exploring. This paper defines new metrics that can reflect the actual situation of data points' vulnerability and capture vulnerable data points under multiple MIAs and target models. From the analysis, MIA has an inference tendency to some data points despite a low overall inference performance. Additionally, we implement 54 MIAs, whose average attack accuracy ranges from 0.5 to 0.9, to support our analysis with our scalable and flexible platform, Membership Inference Attacks Platform (VMIAP). Furthermore, previous methods are unsuitable for finding vulnerable data points under multiple MIAs and different target models. Finally, we observe that the vulnerability is not characteristic of the data point but related to the MIA and target model. Notably, overfitting is the most frequently applications, security and privacy problems are exposed, mentioned reason. Yeom et al. showed that overfitting is a including models' fairness [1], [2], adversarial examples [3], sufficient but unnecessary condition for MIA [10]. A membership inference Long et al. showed a pragmatic MIA to well-generalized attack (MIA) detects whether a data point is in the training models, which also means overfitting is not the necessary data of a machine learning model by which it violates the reason [11]. Yaghini et al. [9], and Da et al. [12] found data points' privacy. MIA became an important topic after that a subgroup of data points with one or several sharing the seminal work by Shokri et al. [7]. A successful MIA has attributes is more vulnerable to MIA.

Universal Domain Adaptation (UniDA) deals with the problem of knowledge transfer between two datasets with domain-shift as well as category-shift. The goal is to categorize unlabeled target samples, either into one of the "known" categories or into a single "unknown" category. A major problem in UniDA is negative transfer, i.e. misalignment of "known" and "unknown" classes. To this end, we first uncover an intriguing tradeoff between negative-transfer-risk and domain-invariance exhibited at different layers of a deep network. It turns out we can strike a balance between these two metrics at a mid-level layer. Towards designing an effective framework based on this insight, we draw motivation from Bag-of-visual-Words (BoW). Word-prototypes in a BoW-like representation of a mid-level layer would represent lower-level visual primitives that are likely to be unaffected by the category-shift in the high-level features. We develop modifications that encourage learning of word-prototypes followed by word-histogram based classification. Following this, subsidiary prototype-space alignment (SPA) can be seen as a closed-set alignment problem, thereby avoiding negative transfer. We realize this with a novel word-histogram-related pretext task to enable closed-set SPA, operating in conjunction with goal task UniDA. We demonstrate the efficacy of our approach on top of existing UniDA techniques, yielding state-of-the-art performance across three standard UniDA and Open-Set DA object recognition benchmarks.

Differentially private (DP) release of multidimensional statistics typically considers an aggregate sensitivity, e.g. the vector norm of a high-dimensional vector. However, different dimensions of that vector might have widely different magnitudes and therefore DP perturbation disproportionately affects the signal across dimensions. We observe this problem in the gradient release of the DP-SGD algorithm when using it for variational inference (VI), where it manifests in poor convergence as well as high variance in outputs for certain variational parameters, and make the following contributions: (i) We mathematically isolate the cause for the difference in magnitudes between gradient parts corresponding to different variational parameters. Using this as prior knowledge we establish a link between the gradients of the variational parameters, and propose an efficient while simple fix for the problem to obtain a less noisy gradient estimator, which we call $\textit{aligned}$ gradients. This approach allows us to obtain the updates for the covariance parameter of a Gaussian posterior approximation without a privacy cost. We compare this to alternative approaches for scaling the gradients using analytically derived preconditioning, e.g. natural gradients. (ii) We suggest using iterate averaging over the DP parameter traces recovered during the training, to reduce the DP-induced noise in parameter estimates at no additional cost in privacy. Finally, (iii) to accurately capture the additional uncertainty DP introduces to the model parameters, we infer the DP-induced noise from the parameter traces and include that in the learned posteriors to make them $\textit{noise aware}$. We demonstrate the efficacy of our proposed improvements through various experiments on real data.

Collaborative problem solving (CPS) enables student groups to complete learning tasks, construct knowledge, and solve problems. Previous research has argued the importance to examine the complexity of CPS, including its multimodality, dynamics, and synergy from the complex adaptive systems perspective. However, there is limited empirical research examining the adaptive and temporal characteristics of CPS which might lead to an oversimplified representation of the real complexity of the CPS process. To further understand the nature of CPS in online interaction settings, this research collected multimodal process and performance data (i.e., verbal audios, computer screen recordings, concept map data) and proposed a three-layered analytical framework that integrated AI algorithms with learning analytics to analyze the regularity of groups collaboration patterns. The results detected three types of collaborative patterns in groups, namely the behaviour-oriented collaborative pattern (Type 1) associated with medium-level performance, the communication - behaviour - synergistic collaborative pattern (Type 2) associated with high-level performance, and the communication-oriented collaborative pattern (Type 3) associated with low-level performance. The research further highlighted the multimodal, dynamic, and synergistic characteristics of groups collaborative patterns to explain the emergence of an adaptive, self-organizing system during the CPS process.

Graph-structured data is ubiquitous in practice and often processed using graph neural networks (GNNs). With the adoption of recent laws ensuring the ``right to be forgotten'', the problem of graph data removal has become of significant importance. To address the problem, we introduce the first known framework for \emph{certified graph unlearning} of GNNs. In contrast to standard machine unlearning, new analytical and heuristic unlearning challenges arise when dealing with complex graph data. First, three different types of unlearning requests need to be considered, including node feature, edge and node unlearning. Second, to establish provable performance guarantees, one needs to address challenges associated with feature mixing during propagation. The underlying analysis is illustrated on the example of simple graph convolutions (SGC) and their generalized PageRank (GPR) extensions, thereby laying the theoretical foundation for certified unlearning of GNNs. Our empirical studies on six benchmark datasets demonstrate excellent performance-complexity trade-offs when compared to complete retraining methods and approaches that do not leverage graph information. For example, when unlearning $20\%$ of the nodes on the Cora dataset, our approach suffers only a $0.1\%$ loss in test accuracy while offering a $4$-fold speed-up compared to complete retraining. Our scheme also outperforms unlearning methods that do not leverage graph information with a $12\%$ increase in test accuracy for a comparable time complexity.

Deep learning experiments by Cohen et al. [2021] using deterministic Gradient Descent (GD) revealed an Edge of Stability (EoS) phase when learning rate (LR) and sharpness (i.e., the largest eigenvalue of Hessian) no longer behave as in traditional optimization. Sharpness stabilizes around $2/$LR and loss goes up and down across iterations, yet still with an overall downward trend. The current paper mathematically analyzes a new mechanism of implicit regularization in the EoS phase, whereby GD updates due to non-smooth loss landscape turn out to evolve along some deterministic flow on the manifold of minimum loss. This is in contrast to many previous results about implicit bias either relying on infinitesimal updates or noise in gradient. Formally, for any smooth function $L$ with certain regularity condition, this effect is demonstrated for (1) Normalized GD, i.e., GD with a varying LR $\eta_t =\frac{\eta}{\| \nabla L(x(t)) \|}$ and loss $L$; (2) GD with constant LR and loss $\sqrt{L- \min_x L(x)}$. Both provably enter the Edge of Stability, with the associated flow on the manifold minimizing $\lambda_{1}(\nabla^2 L)$. The above theoretical results have been corroborated by an experimental study.

Prognosis of the reactor accident is a crucial way to ensure appropriate strategies are adopted to avoid radioactive releases. However, there is very limited research in the field of nuclear industry. In this paper, we propose a method for accident prognosis based on the Temporal Fusion Transformer (TFT) model with multi-headed self-attention and gating mechanisms. The method utilizes multiple covariates to improve prediction accuracy on the one hand, and quantile regression methods for uncertainty assessment on the other. The method proposed in this paper is applied to the prognosis after loss of coolant accidents (LOCAs) in HPR1000 reactor. Extensive experimental results show that the method surpasses novel deep learning-based prediction methods in terms of prediction accuracy and confidence. Furthermore, the interference experiments with different signal-to-noise ratios and the ablation experiments for static covariates further illustrate that the robustness comes from the ability to extract the features of static and historical covariates. In summary, this work for the first time applies the novel composite deep learning model TFT to the prognosis of key parameters after a reactor accident, and makes a positive contribution to the establishment of a more intelligent and staff-light maintenance method for reactor systems.