We investigate the detection of botnet command and control (C2) hosts in massive IP traffic using machine learning methods. To this end, we use NetFlow data -- the industry standard for monitoring of IP traffic -- and ML models using two sets of features: conventional NetFlow variables and distributional features based on NetFlow variables. In addition to using static summaries of NetFlow features, we use quantiles of their IP-level distributions as input features in predictive models to predict whether an IP belongs to known botnet families. These models are used to develop intrusion detection systems to predict traffic traces identified with malicious attacks. The results are validated by matching predictions to existing denylists of published malicious IP addresses and deep packet inspection. The usage of our proposed novel distributional features, combined with techniques that enable modelling complex input feature spaces result in highly accurate predictions by our trained models.

A parametric adaptive greedy Latent Space Dynamics Identification (gLaSDI) framework is developed for accurate, efficient, and certified data-driven physics-informed greedy auto-encoder simulators of high-dimensional nonlinear dynamical systems. In the proposed framework, an auto-encoder and dynamics identification models are trained interactively to discover intrinsic and simple latent-space dynamics. To effectively explore the parameter space for optimal model performance, an adaptive greedy sampling algorithm integrated with a physics-informed error indicator is introduced to search for optimal training samples on the fly, outperforming the conventional predefined uniform sampling. Further, an efficient k-nearest neighbor convex interpolation scheme is employed to exploit local latent-space dynamics for improved predictability. Numerical results demonstrate that the proposed method achieves 121 to 2,658x speed-up with 1 to 5% relative errors for radial advection and 2D Burgers dynamical problems.

Siamese-network-based self-supervised learning (SSL) suffers from slow convergence and instability in training. To alleviate this, we propose a framework to exploit intermediate self-supervisions in each stage of deep nets, called the Ladder Siamese Network. Our self-supervised losses encourage the intermediate layers to be consistent with different data augmentations to single samples, which facilitates training progress and enhances the discriminative ability of the intermediate layers themselves. While some existing work has already utilized multi-level self supervisions in SSL, ours is different in that 1) we reveal its usefulness with non-contrastive Siamese frameworks in both theoretical and empirical viewpoints, and 2) ours improves image-level classification, instance-level detection, and pixel-level segmentation simultaneously. Experiments show that the proposed framework can improve BYOL baselines by 1.0% points in ImageNet linear classification, 1.2% points in COCO detection, and 3.1% points in PASCAL VOC segmentation. In comparison with the state-of-the-art methods, our Ladder-based model achieves competitive and balanced performances in all tested benchmarks without causing large degradation in one.

Decoders built on Gaussian processes (GPs) are enticing due to the marginalisation over the non-linear function space. Such models (also known as GP-LVMs) are often expensive and notoriously difficult to train in practice, but can be scaled using variational inference and inducing points. In this paper, we revisit active set approximations. We develop a new stochastic estimate of the log-marginal likelihood based on recently discovered links to cross-validation, and we propose a computationally efficient approximation thereof. We demonstrate that the resulting stochastic active sets (SAS) approximation significantly improves the robustness of GP decoder training, while reducing computational cost. The SAS-GP obtains more structure in the latent space, scales to many datapoints, and learns better representations than variational autoencoders, which is rarely the case for GP decoders.

Previous analysis of regularized functional linear regression in a reproducing kernel Hilbert space (RKHS) typically requires the target function to be contained in this kernel space. This paper studies the convergence performance of divide-and-conquer estimators in the scenario that the target function does not necessarily reside in the underlying RKHS. As a decomposition-based scalable approach, the divide-and-conquer estimators of functional linear regression can substantially reduce the algorithmic complexities in time and memory. We develop an integral operator approach to establish sharp finite sample upper bounds for prediction with divide-and-conquer estimators under various regularity conditions of explanatory variables and target function. We also prove the asymptotic optimality of the derived rates by building the mini-max lower bounds. Finally, we consider the convergence of noiseless estimators and show that the rates can be arbitrarily fast under mild conditions.

Data visualization plays an important role in machine learning. Visualizations that are directly related to the above key things in machine learning are called machine learning visualizations. Creating machine learning visualizations is sometimes a complicated process as it requires a lot of code to write even in Python. But, thanks to Python's open-source Yellowbrick library, even complex machine learning visualizations can be created with less code. That library extends the Scikit-learn API and provides high-level functions for visual diagnostics that are not provided by Scikit-learn.

In this video, you will learn from basics to advanced machine learning concepts from Great Learning's top faculties, including professor Mukesh Rao, Bharani Akella & many other leading industry experts. If you are an enthusiast who wants to start with machine learning from scratch, this machine learning beginner video is the best to start with. Agenda: • Python for Machine Learning • Role of Statistics in Machine Learning • Introduction to Machine Learning and its types • How does a Machine learning model learn? Topics Covered: 00:01:09 – What Is Machine learning?

There is no such thing as a perfect dataset. In some datasets, deep neural networks discover underlying heuristics that allow them to take shortcuts in the learning process, resulting in poor generalization capability. Instead of using standard cross-entropy, we explore whether a modulated version of cross-entropy called focal loss can constrain the model so as not to use heuristics and improve generalization performance. Our experiments in natural language inference show that focal loss has a regularizing impact on the learning process, increasing accuracy on out-of-distribution data, but slightly decreasing performance on in-distribution data. Despite the improved out-of-distribution performance, we demonstrate the shortcomings of focal loss and its inferiority in comparison to the performance of methods such as unbiased focal loss and self-debiasing ensembles.

During the last years, European intraday power markets have gained importance for balancing forecast errors due to the rising volumes of intermittent renewable generation. However, compared to day-ahead markets, the drivers for the intraday price process are still sparsely researched. In this paper, we propose a modelling strategy for the location, shape and scale parameters of the return distribution in intraday markets, based on fundamental variables. We consider wind and solar forecasts and their intraday updates, outages, price information and a novel measure for the shape of the merit-order, derived from spot auction curves as explanatory variables. We validate our modelling by simulating price paths and compare the probabilistic forecasting performance of our model to benchmark models in a forecasting study for the German market. The approach yields significant improvements in the forecasting performance, especially in the tails of the distribution. At the same time, we are able to derive the contribution of the driving variables. We find that, apart from the first lag of the price changes, none of our fundamental variables have explanatory power for the expected value of the intraday returns. This implies weak-form market efficiency as renewable forecast changes and outage information seems to be priced in by the market. We find that the volatility is driven by the merit-order regime, the time to delivery and the closure of cross-border order books. The tail of the distribution is mainly influenced by past price differences and trading activity. Our approach is directly transferable to other continuous intraday markets in Europe.

Agent-Based Models (ABMs) are used in several fields to study the evolution of complex systems from micro-level assumptions. However, ABMs typically can not estimate agent-specific (or "micro") variables: this is a major limitation which prevents ABMs from harnessing micro-level data availability and which greatly limits their predictive power. In this paper, we propose a protocol to learn the latent micro-variables of an ABM from data. The first step of our protocol is to reduce an ABM to a probabilistic model, characterized by a computationally tractable likelihood. This reduction follows two general design principles: balance of stochasticity and data availability, and replacement of unobservable discrete choices with differentiable approximations. Then, our protocol proceeds by maximizing the likelihood of the latent variables via a gradient-based expectation maximization algorithm. We demonstrate our protocol by applying it to an ABM of the housing market, in which agents with different incomes bid higher prices to live in high-income neighborhoods. We demonstrate that the obtained model allows accurate estimates of the latent variables, while preserving the general behavior of the ABM. We also show that our estimates can be used for out-of-sample forecasting. Our protocol can be seen as an alternative to black-box data assimilation methods, that forces the modeler to lay bare the assumptions of the model, to think about the inferential process, and to spot potential identification problems.