The concept of trustworthy AI has gained widespread attention lately. One of the aspects relevant to trustworthy AI is robustness of ML models. In this study, we show how to probabilistically quantify robustness against naturally occurring distortions of input data for tree-based classifiers under the assumption that the natural distortions can be described by multivariate probability distributions that can be transformed to multivariate normal distributions. The idea is to extract the decision rules of a trained tree-based classifier, separate the feature space into non-overlapping regions and determine the probability that a data sample with distortion returns its predicted label. The approach is based on the recently introduced measure of real-world-robustness, which works for all black box classifiers, but is only an approximation and only works if the input dimension is not too high, whereas our proposed method gives an exact measure.

In this paper, we propose a robust election simulation model and independently developed election anomaly detection algorithm that demonstrates the simulation's utility. The simulation generates artificial elections with similar properties and trends as elections from the real world, while giving users control and knowledge over all the important components of the elections. We generate a clean election results dataset without fraud as well as datasets with varying degrees of fraud. We then measure how well the algorithm is able to successfully detect the level of fraud present. The algorithm determines how similar actual election results are as compared to the predicted results from polling and a regression model of other regions that have similar demographics. We use k-means to partition electoral regions into clusters such that demographic homogeneity is maximized among clusters. We then use a novelty detection algorithm implemented as a one-class Support Vector Machine where the clean data is provided in the form of polling predictions and regression predictions. The regression predictions are built from the actual data in such a way that the data supervises itself. We show both the effectiveness of the simulation technique and the machine learning model in its success in identifying fraudulent regions.

Adversarial training has been empirically shown to be more prone to overfitting than standard training. The exact underlying reasons still need to be fully understood. In this paper, we identify one cause of overfitting related to current practices of generating adversarial samples from misclassified samples. To address this, we propose an alternative approach that leverages the misclassified samples to mitigate the overfitting problem. We show that our approach achieves better generalization while having comparable robustness to state-of-the-art adversarial training methods on a wide range of computer vision, natural language processing, and tabular tasks.

Supervised deep learning is most commonly applied to difficult problems defined on large and often extensively curated datasets. Here we demonstrate the ability of deep representation learning to address problems of classification and regression from small and poorly formed tabular datasets by encoding input information as abstracted sequences composed of a fixed number of characters per input field. We find that small models have sufficient capacity for approximation of various functions and achieve record classification benchmark accuracy. Such models are shown to form useful embeddings of various input features in their hidden layers, even if the learned task does not explicitly require knowledge of those features. These models are also amenable to input attribution, allowing for an estimation of the importance of each input element to the model output as well as of which inputs features are effectively embedded in the model. We present a proof-of-concept for the application of small language models to mixed tabular data without explicit feature engineering, cleaning, or preprocessing, relying on the model to perform these tasks as part of the representation learning process.

In this paper, we present a novel method for phoneme-level prosody control of F0 and duration using intuitive discrete labels. We propose an unsupervised prosodic clustering process which is used to discretize phoneme-level F0 and duration features from a multispeaker speech dataset. These features are fed as an input sequence of prosodic labels to a prosody encoder module which augments an autoregressive attention-based text-to-speech model. We utilize various methods in order to improve prosodic control range and coverage, such as augmentation, F0 normalization, balanced clustering for duration and speaker-independent clustering. The final model enables fine-grained phoneme-level prosody control for all speakers contained in the training set, while maintaining the speaker identity. Instead of relying on reference utterances for inference, we introduce a prior prosody encoder which learns the style of each speaker and enables speech synthesis without the requirement of reference audio. We also fine-tune the multispeaker model to unseen speakers with limited amounts of data, as a realistic application scenario and show that the prosody control capabilities are maintained, verifying that the speaker-independent prosodic clustering is effective. Experimental results show that the model has high output speech quality and that the proposed method allows efficient prosody control within each speaker's range despite the variability that a multispeaker setting introduces.

Hidden parameters are latent variables in reinforcement learning (RL) environments that are constant over the course of a trajectory. Understanding what, if any, hidden parameters affect a particular environment can aid both the development and appropriate usage of RL systems. We present an unsupervised method to map RL trajectories into a feature space where distance represents the relative difference in system behavior due to hidden parameters. Our approach disentangles the effects of hidden parameters by leveraging a recurrent neural network (RNN) world model as used in model-based RL. First, we alter the standard world model training algorithm to isolate the hidden parameter information in the world model memory. Then, we use a metric learning approach to map the RNN memory into a space with a distance metric approximating a bisimulation metric with respect to the hidden parameters. The resulting disentangled feature space can be used to meaningfully relate trajectories to each other and analyze the hidden parameter. We demonstrate our approach on four hidden parameters across three RL environments. Finally we present two methods to help identify and understand the effects of hidden parameters on systems.

Synergetic use of sensors for soil moisture retrieval is attracting considerable interest due to the different advantages of different sensors. Active, passive, and optic data integration could be a comprehensive solution for exploiting the advantages of different sensors aimed at preparing soil moisture maps. Typically, pixel-based methods are used for multi-sensor fusion. Since, different applications need different scales of soil moisture maps, pixel-based approaches are limited for this purpose. Object-based image analysis employing an image object instead of a pixel could help us to meet this need. This paper proposes a segment-based image fusion framework to evaluate the possibility of preparing a multi-scale soil moisture map through integrated Sentinel-1, Sentinel-2, and Soil Moisture Active Passive (SMAP) data. The results confirmed that the proposed methodology was able to improve soil moisture estimation in different scales up to 20% better compared to pixel-based fusion approach.

As an autonomous system performs a task, it should maintain a calibrated estimate of the probability that it will achieve the user's goal. If that probability falls below some desired level, it should alert the user so that appropriate interventions can be made. This paper considers settings where the user's goal is specified as a target interval for a real-valued performance summary, such as the cumulative reward, measured at a fixed horizon $H$. At each time $t \in \{0, \ldots, H-1\}$, our method produces a calibrated estimate of the probability that the final cumulative reward will fall within a user-specified target interval $[y^-,y^+].$ Using this estimate, the autonomous system can raise an alarm if the probability drops below a specified threshold. We compute the probability estimates by inverting conformal prediction. Our starting point is the Conformalized Quantile Regression (CQR) method of Romano et al., which applies split-conformal prediction to the results of quantile regression. CQR is not invertible, but by using the conditional cumulative distribution function (CDF) as the non-conformity measure, we show how to obtain an invertible modification that we call \textbf{P}robability-space \textbf{C}onformalized \textbf{Q}uantile \textbf{R}egression (PCQR). Like CQR, PCQR produces well-calibrated conditional prediction intervals with finite-sample marginal guarantees. By inverting PCQR, we obtain marginal guarantees for the probability that the cumulative reward of an autonomous system will fall within an arbitrary user-specified target intervals. Experiments on two domains confirm that these probabilities are well-calibrated.

With the development of machine learning and data science, data sharing is very common between companies and research institutes to avoid data scarcity. However, sharing original datasets that contain private information can cause privacy leakage. A reliable solution is to utilize private synthetic datasets which preserve statistical information from original datasets. In this paper, we propose MC-GEN, a privacy-preserving synthetic data generation method under differential privacy guarantee for machine learning classification tasks. MC-GEN applies multi-level clustering and differential private generative model to improve the utility of synthetic data. In the experimental evaluation, we evaluated the effects of parameters and the effectiveness of MC-GEN. The results showed that MC-GEN can achieve significant effectiveness under certain privacy guarantees on multiple classification tasks. Moreover, we compare MC-GEN with three existing methods. The results showed that MC-GEN outperforms other methods in terms of utility.

Temporal exponential random graph models (TERGM) are powerful statistical models that can be used to infer the temporal pattern of edge formation and elimination in complex networks (e.g., social networks). TERGMs can also be used in a generative capacity to predict longitudinal time series data in these evolving graphs. However, parameter estimation within this framework fails to capture many real-world properties of social networks, including: triadic relationships, small world characteristics, and social learning theories which could be used to constrain the probabilistic estimation of dyadic covariates. Here, we propose triadic temporal exponential random graph models (TTERGM) to fill this void, which includes these hierarchical network relationships within the graph model. We represent social network learning theory as an additional probability distribution that optimizes Markov chains in the graph vector space. The new parameters are then approximated via Monte Carlo maximum likelihood estimation. We show that our TTERGM model achieves improved fidelity and more accurate predictions compared to several benchmark methods on GitHub network data.