Pandemic outbreaks such as COVID-19 occur unexpectedly, and need immediate action due to their potential devastating consequences on global health. Point-of-care routine assessments such as electrocardiogram (ECG), can be used to develop prediction models for identifying individuals at risk. However, there is often too little clinically-annotated medical data, especially in early phases of a pandemic, to develop accurate prediction models. In such situations, historical pre-pandemic health records can be utilized to estimate a preliminary model, which can then be fine-tuned based on limited available pandemic data. This study shows this approach -- pre-train deep learning models with pre-pandemic data -- can work effectively, by demonstrating substantial performance improvement over three different COVID-19 related diagnostic and prognostic prediction tasks. Similar transfer learning strategies can be useful for developing timely artificial intelligence solutions in future pandemic outbreaks.

Over the past few years, the use of machine learning models has emerged as a generic and powerful means for prediction purposes. At the same time, there is a growing demand for interpretability of prediction models. To determine which features of a dataset are important to predict a target variable $Y$, a Feature Importance (FI) method can be used. By quantifying how important each feature is for predicting $Y$, irrelevant features can be identified and removed, which could increase the speed and accuracy of a model, and moreover, important features can be discovered, which could lead to valuable insights. A major problem with evaluating FI methods, is that the ground truth FI is often unknown. As a consequence, existing FI methods do not give the exact correct FI values. This is one of the many reasons why it can be hard to properly interpret the results of an FI method. Motivated by this, we introduce a new global approach named the Berkelmans-Pries FI method, which is based on a combination of Shapley values and the Berkelmans-Pries dependency function. We prove that our method has many useful properties, and accurately predicts the correct FI values for several cases where the ground truth FI can be derived in an exact manner. We experimentally show for a large collection of FI methods (468) that existing methods do not have the same useful properties. This shows that the Berkelmans-Pries FI method is a highly valuable tool for analyzing datasets with complex interdependencies.

Realizing when a model is right for a wrong reason is not trivial and requires a significant effort by model developers. In some cases an input salience method, which highlights the most important parts of the input, may reveal problematic reasoning. But scrutinizing highlights over many data instances is tedious and often infeasible. Furthermore, analyzing examples in isolation does not reveal general patterns in the data or in the model's behavior. In this paper we aim to address these issues and go from understanding single examples to understanding entire datasets and models. The methodology we propose is based on aggregated salience maps, to which we apply clustering, nearest neighbor search and visualizations. Using this methodology we address multiple distinct but common model developer needs by showing how problematic data and model behavior can be identified and explained -- a necessary first step for improving the model.

Machine learning is becoming increasingly prevalent for tackling challenges in earthquake engineering and providing fairly reliable and accurate predictions. However, it is mostly unclear how decisions are made because machine learning models are generally highly sophisticated, resulting in opaque black-box models. Machine learning models that are naturally interpretable and provide their own decision explanation, rather than using an explanatory, are more accurate in determining what the model actually computes. With this motivation, this study aims to develop a fully explainable machine learning model to predict the deformation capacity of non-ductile reinforced concrete shear walls based on experimental data collected worldwide. The proposed Explainable Boosting Machines (EBM)-based model is an interpretable, robust, naturally explainable glass-box model, yet provides high accuracy comparable to its black-box counterparts. The model enables the user to observe the relationship between the wall properties and the deformation capacity by quantifying the individual contribution of each wall property as well as the correlations among them. The mean coefficient of determination R2 and the mean ratio of predicted to actual value based on the test dataset are 0.92 and 1.05, respectively. The proposed predictive model stands out with its overall consistency with scientific knowledge, practicality, and interpretability without sacrificing high accuracy.

Classification algorithms using RNA-Sequencing (RNA-Seq) data as input are used in a variety of biological applications. By nature, RNA-Seq data is subject to uncontrolled fluctuations both within and especially across datasets, which presents a major difficulty for a trained classifier to generalize to an external dataset. Replacing raw gene counts with the rank of gene counts inside an observation has proven effective to mitigate this problem. However, the rank of a feature is by definition relative to all other features, including highly variable features that introduce noise in the ranking. To address this problem and obtain more robust ranks, we propose a logistic regression model, optirank, which learns simultaneously the parameters of the model and the genes to use as a reference set in the ranking. We show the effectiveness of this method on simulated data. We also consider real classification tasks, which present different kinds of distribution shifts between train and test data. Those tasks concern a variety of applications, such as cancer of unknown primary classification, identification of specific gene signatures, and determination of cell type in single-cell RNA-Seq datasets. On those real tasks, optirank performs at least as well as the vanilla logistic regression on classical ranks, while producing sparser solutions. In addition, to increase the robustness against dataset shifts, we propose a multi-source learning scheme and demonstrate its effectiveness when used in combination with rank-based classifiers.

In the field of reinforcement learning, because of the high cost and risk of policy training in the real world, policies are trained in a simulation environment and transferred to the corresponding real-world environment. However, the simulation environment does not perfectly mimic the real-world environment, lead to model misspecification. Multiple studies report significant deterioration of policy performance in a real-world environment. In this study, we focus on scenarios involving a simulation environment with uncertainty parameters and the set of their possible values, called the uncertainty parameter set. The aim is to optimize the worst-case performance on the uncertainty parameter set to guarantee the performance in the corresponding real-world environment. To obtain a policy for the optimization, we propose an off-policy actor-critic approach called the Max-Min Twin Delayed Deep Deterministic Policy Gradient algorithm (M2TD3), which solves a max-min optimization problem using a simultaneous gradient ascent descent approach. Experiments in multi-joint dynamics with contact (MuJoCo) environments show that the proposed method exhibited a worst-case performance superior to several baseline approaches.

Unlabeled data examples awaiting annotations contain open-set noise inevitably. A few active learning studies have attempted to deal with this open-set noise for sample selection by filtering out the noisy examples. However, because focusing on the purity of examples in a query set leads to overlooking the informativeness of the examples, the best balancing of purity and informativeness remains an important question. In this paper, to solve this purity-informativeness dilemma in open-set active learning, we propose a novel Meta-Query-Net (MQ-Net) that adaptively finds the best balancing between the two factors. Specifically, by leveraging the multi-round property of active learning, we train MQ-Net using a query set without an additional validation set. Furthermore, a clear dominance relationship between unlabeled examples is effectively captured by MQ-Net through a novel skyline regularization. Extensive experiments on multiple open-set active learning scenarios demonstrate that the proposed MQ-Net achieves 20.14% improvement in terms of accuracy, compared with the state-of-the-art methods.

This two part paper argues that seemingly "technical" choices made by developers of machine-learning based algorithmic tools used to inform decisions by criminal justice authorities can create serious constitutional dangers, enhancing the likelihood of abuse of decision-making power and the scope and magnitude of injustice. Drawing on three algorithmic tools in use, or recently used, to assess the "risk" posed by individuals to inform how they should be treated by criminal justice authorities, we integrate insights from data science and public law scholarship to show how public law principles and more specific legal duties that are rooted in these principles, are routinely overlooked in algorithmic tool-building and implementation. We argue that technical developers must collaborate closely with public law experts to ensure that if algorithmic decision-support tools are to inform criminal justice decisions, those tools are configured and implemented in a manner that is demonstrably compliant with public law principles and doctrine, including respect for human rights, throughout the tool-building process.

We consider the problem of finding an input to a stochastic black box function such that the scalar output of the black box function is as close as possible to a target value in the sense of the expected squared error. While the optimization of stochastic black boxes is classic in (robust) Bayesian optimization, the current approaches based on Gaussian processes predominantly focus either on i) maximization/minimization rather than target value optimization or ii) on the expectation, but not the variance of the output, ignoring output variations due to stochasticity in uncontrollable environmental variables. In this work, we fill this gap and derive acquisition functions for common criteria such as the expected improvement, the probability of improvement, and the lower confidence bound, assuming that aleatoric effects are Gaussian with known variance. Our experiments illustrate that this setting is compatible with certain extensions of Gaussian processes, and show that the thus derived acquisition functions can outperform classical Bayesian optimization even if the latter assumptions are violated. An industrial use case in billet forging is presented.

In data science, machine learning algorithms are used to automate a system. In practice, there are mainly two types of problems -- i. Supervised, and ii. In the supervised problem, the training dataset is labelled. That means the algorithm has a target value. The supervised learning algorithm tries to predict the values like target values and optimizes its parameters accordingly.