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 Statistical Learning


Personalized Understanding of Blood Glucose Dynamics via Mobile Sensor Data

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Continuous Blood Glucose (CGM) monitors have revolutionized the ability of diabetics to manage their blood glucose, and paved the way for artificial pancreas systems. In this paper we augment CGM data with sensor input collected by a smart phone and use it to provide analytical tools for patients and clinicians. We collected GPS data, activity classifications, and blood glucose data with a custom iOS application over a 9 month period from a single free-living type-1 diabetic patient. This data set is novel in terms of it's size, the inclusion of GPS data, and the fact that it was collected non-intrusively from a free-living patient. We describe a method to measure the occurrence of lifestyle \textit{events} based on GPS and activity data, and show that they can capture instances of food consumption and are therefore correlated to changes in blood glucose. Finally, we incorporate these event representations into our system to create useful visualizations and notifications to aid patients in managing their diabetes.


Multilinear compressive sensing and an application to convolutional linear networks

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

We study a deep linear network endowed with a structure. It takes the form of a matrix $X$ obtained by multiplying $K$ matrices (called factors and corresponding to the action of the layers). The action of each layer (i.e. a factor) is obtained by applying a fixed linear operator to a vector of parameters satisfying a constraint. The number of layers is not limited. Assuming that $X$ is given and factors have been estimated, the error between the product of the estimated factors and $X$ (i.e. the reconstruction error) is either the statistical or the empirical risk. In this paper, we provide necessary and sufficient conditions on the network topology under which a stability property holds. The stability property requires that the error on the parameters defining the factors (i.e. the stability of the recovered parameters) scales linearly with the reconstruction error (i.e. the risk). Therefore, under these conditions on the network topology, any successful learning task leads to stably defined features and therefore interpretable layers/network.In order to do so, we first evaluate how the Segre embedding and its inverse distort distances. Then, we show that any deep structured linear network can be cast as a generic multilinear problem (that uses the Segre embedding). This is the {\em tensorial lifting}. Using the tensorial lifting, we provide necessary and sufficient conditions for the identifiability of the factors (up to a scale rearrangement). We finally provide the necessary and sufficient condition called \NSPlong~(because of the analogy with the usual Null Space Property in the compressed sensing framework) which guarantees that the stability property holds. We illustrate the theory with a practical example where the deep structured linear network is a convolutional linear network. As expected, the conditions are rather strong but not empty. A simple test on the network topology can be implemented to test if the condition holds.


Keyword Assisted Topic Models

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

The unsupervised nature of the models makes them suitable for exploring topics in a corpus without prior knowledge. However, researchers find that these models often fail to measure specific concepts of substantive interest by inadvertently creating multiple topics with similar content and combining distinct themes into a single topic. In this paper, we empirically demonstrate that providing a small number of keywords can substantially enhance the measurement performance of topic models. An important advantage of the proposed keyword assisted topic model (keyATM) is that the specification of keywords requires researchers to label topics prior to fitting a model to the data. This contrasts with a widespread practice of post-hoc topic interpretation and adjustments that compromises the objectivity of empirical findings. In our application, we find that keyATM provides more interpretable results, has better document classification performance, and is less sensitive to the number of topics than the standard topic models. Finally, we show that keyATM can also incorporate covariates and model time trends. An open-source software package is available for implementing the proposed methodology. Verification Materials: The data and materials required to verify the computational reproducibility of the results, procedures and analyses in this article are available on the American Journal of Political Science Dataverse within the Harvard Dataverse Network, at: https://doi.org/10.7910/DVN/RKNNVL


Empirical Analysis of the AdaBoost's Error Bound

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

In this report, we aim to present an empirical verification A more intuitive interpretation of AdaBoost is that the algorithm of the AdaBoost algorithm (Schapire, 2013). We are going aims to combine the base classifiers by assigning to do so by first showing the theoretical error bounds along particular weights to each of them. Each weight is calculated with the necessary conditions. Afterward, we will describe in accordance with the number of misclassifications an experimental setup and report on the findings. Finally, the base classifiers return. That makes the final combined we will apply the designed experiments on both synthetic prediction of the ensemble model more robust (Opitz & and real-world data to provide empirical verification.


Hypothesis Testing and Machine Learning: Interpreting Variable Effects in Deep Artificial Neural Networks using Cohen's f2

arXiv.org Machine Learning

Deep artificial neural networks show high predictive performance in many fields, but they do not afford statistical inferences and their black-box operations are too complicated for humans to comprehend. Because positing that a relationship exists is often more important than prediction in scientific experiments and research models, machine learning is far less frequently used than inferential statistics. Additionally, statistics calls for improving the test of theory by showing the magnitude of the phenomena being studied. This article extends current XAI methods and develops a model agnostic hypothesis testing framework for machine learning. First, Fisher's variable permutation algorithm is tweaked to compute an effect size measure equivalent to Cohen's f2 for OLS regression models. Second, the Mann-Kendall test of monotonicity and the Theil-Sen estimator is applied to Apley's accumulated local effect plots to specify a variable's direction of influence and statistical significance. The usefulness of this approach is demonstrated on an artificial data set and a social survey with a Python sandbox implementation.


Assumption of linear regression. Linear regression is a widely usedโ€ฆ

#artificialintelligence

Linearity: This assumption states that there is a linear relationship between the independent and dependent variables. The relationship should be expressed as a straight line on a scatter plot, and the residuals (the difference between the actual and predicted values) should be randomly dispersed around zero. If this assumption is violated, the regression results may be misleading and the model will not generalize well to new data. Independence: The observations in the data should be independent of each other, meaning that the value of one observation should not affect the value of another observation. If the observations are dependent, the standard errors of the regression coefficients will be biased and the results will not be valid.


Machine Learning Circuit Simulation Expedites Workflows

#artificialintelligence

What are some challenges of machine learning circuit simulation and how can they be circumvented? How does machine learning implementation differ from traditional simulators? A crucial element of design for feedback and testing is circuit simulation. Although simulation environments cannot capture the entirety of circuit characteristics, they offer some insight into the operation of the board and can be used to get an early glimpse at important resources such as timing diagrams and other signal parameters. Circuit simulation suffers from tradeoffs common to heavy computational tasksโ€“the more accurate the software, the longer it takes a machine to render the information (and vice versa).


HOAX: A Hyperparameter Optimization Algorithm Explorer for Neural Networks

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Computational chemistry has become an important tool to predict and understand molecular properties and reactions. Even though recent years have seen a significant growth in new algorithms and computational methods that speed up quantum chemical calculations, the bottleneck for trajectory-based methods to study photoinduced processes is still the huge number of electronic structure calculations. In this work, we present an innovative solution, in which the amount of electronic structure calculations is drastically reduced, by employing machine learning algorithms and methods borrowed from the realm of artificial intelligence. However, applying these algorithms effectively requires finding optimal hyperparameters, which remains a challenge itself. Here we present an automated user-friendly framework, HOAX, to perform the hyperparameter optimization for neural networks, which bypasses the need for a lengthy manual process. The neural network generated potential energy surfaces (PESs) reduces the computational costs compared to the ab initio-based PESs. We perform a comparative investigation on the performance of different hyperparameter optimiziation algorithms, namely grid search, simulated annealing, genetic algorithm, and bayesian optimizer in finding the optimal hyperparameters necessary for constructing the well-performing neural network in order to fit the PESs of small organic molecules. Our results show that this automated toolkit not only facilitate a straightforward way to perform the hyperparameter optimization but also the resulting neural networks-based generated PESs are in reasonable agreement with the ab initio-based PESs.


Soft Sensing Regression Model: from Sensor to Wafer Metrology Forecasting

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

The semiconductor industry is one of the most technology-evolving and capital-intensive market sectors. Effective inspection and metrology are necessary to improve product yield, increase product quality and reduce costs. In recent years, many semiconductor manufacturing equipments are equipped with sensors to facilitate real-time monitoring of the production process. These production-state and equipment-state sensor data provide an opportunity to practice machine-learning technologies in various domains, such as anomaly/fault detection, maintenance scheduling, quality prediction, etc. In this work, we focus on the task of soft sensing regression, which uses sensor data to predict impending inspection measurements that used to be measured in wafer inspection and metrology systems. We proposed an LSTM-based regressor and designed two loss functions for model training. Although engineers may look at our prediction errors in a subjective manner, a new piece-wise evaluation metric was proposed for assessing model accuracy in a mathematical way. The experimental results demonstrated that the proposed model can achieve accurate and early prediction of various types of inspections in complicated manufacturing processes.


Split Happens! Imprecise and Negative Information in Gaussian Mixture Random Finite Set Filtering

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

In object tracking and state estimation problems, ambiguous evidence such as imprecise measurements and the absence of detections can contain valuable information and thus be leveraged to further refine the probabilistic belief state. In particular, knowledge of a sensor's bounded field-of-view can be exploited to incorporate evidence of where an object was not observed. This paper presents a systematic approach for incorporating knowledge of the field-of-view geometry and position and object inclusion/exclusion evidence into object state densities and random finite set multi-object cardinality distributions. The resulting state estimation problem is nonlinear and solved using a new Gaussian mixture approximation based on recursive component splitting. Based on this approximation, a novel Gaussian mixture Bernoulli filter for imprecise measurements is derived and demonstrated in a tracking problem using only natural language statements as inputs. This paper also considers the relationship between bounded fields-of-view and cardinality distributions for a representative selection of multi-object distributions, which can be used for sensor planning, as is demonstrated through a problem involving a multi-Bernoulli process with up to one-hundred potential objects.