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 Statistical Learning


Explaining with Greater Support: Weighted Column Sampling Optimization for q-Consistent Summary-Explanations

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Machine learning systems have been extensively used as auxiliary tools in domains that require critical decision-making, such as healthcare and criminal justice. The explainability of decisions is crucial for users to develop trust on these systems. In recent years, the globally-consistent rule-based summary-explanation and its max-support (MS) problem have been proposed, which can provide explanations for particular decisions along with useful statistics of the dataset. However, globally-consistent summary-explanations with limited complexity typically have small supports, if there are any. In this paper, we propose a relaxed version of summary-explanation, i.e., the $q$-consistent summary-explanation, which aims to achieve greater support at the cost of slightly lower consistency. The challenge is that the max-support problem of $q$-consistent summary-explanation (MSqC) is much more complex than the original MS problem, resulting in over-extended solution time using standard branch-and-bound solvers. To improve the solution time efficiency, this paper proposes the weighted column sampling~(WCS) method based on solving smaller problems by sampling variables according to their simplified increase support (SIS) values. Experiments verify that solving MSqC with the proposed SIS-based WCS method is not only more scalable in efficiency, but also yields solutions with greater support and better global extrapolation effectiveness.


On Fairness and Stability: Is Estimator Variance a Friend or a Foe?

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

The error of an estimator can be decomposed into a (statistical) bias term, a variance term, and an irreducible noise term. When we do bias analysis, formally we are asking the question: "how good are the predictions?" The role of bias in the error decomposition is clear: if we trust the labels/targets, then we would want the estimator to have as low bias as possible, in order to minimize error. Fair machine learning is concerned with the question: "Are the predictions equally good for different demographic/social groups?" This has naturally led to a variety of fairness metrics that compare some measure of statistical bias on subsets corresponding to socially privileged and socially disadvantaged groups. In this paper we propose a new family of performance measures based on group-wise parity in variance. We demonstrate when group-wise statistical bias analysis gives an incomplete picture, and what group-wise variance analysis can tell us in settings that differ in the magnitude of statistical bias. We develop and release an open-source library that reconciles uncertainty quantification techniques with fairness analysis, and use it to conduct an extensive empirical analysis of our variance-based fairness measures on standard benchmarks.


The Edge of Orthogonality: A Simple View of What Makes BYOL Tick

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Self-predictive unsupervised learning methods such as BYOL or SimSiam have shown impressive results, and counter-intuitively, do not collapse to trivial representations. In this work, we aim at exploring the simplest possible mathematical arguments towards explaining the underlying mechanisms behind self-predictive unsupervised learning. We start with the observation that those methods crucially rely on the presence of a predictor network (and stop-gradient). With simple linear algebra, we show that when using a linear predictor, the optimal predictor is close to an orthogonal projection, and propose a general framework based on orthonormalization that enables to interpret and give intuition on why BYOL works. In addition, this framework demonstrates the crucial role of the exponential moving average and stop-gradient operator in BYOL as an efficient orthonormalization mechanism. We use these insights to propose four new \emph{closed-form predictor} variants of BYOL to support our analysis. Our closed-form predictors outperform standard linear trainable predictor BYOL at $100$ and $300$ epochs (top-$1$ linear accuracy on ImageNet).


Mixed-order self-paced curriculum learning for universal lesion detection

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Self-paced curriculum learning (SCL) has demonstrated its great potential in computer vision, natural language processing, etc. During training, it implements easy-to-hard sampling based on online estimation of data difficulty. Most SCL methods commonly adopt a loss-based strategy of estimating data difficulty and deweighting the `hard' samples in the early training stage. While achieving success in a variety of applications, SCL stills confront two challenges in a medical image analysis task, such as universal lesion detection, featuring insufficient and highly class-imbalanced data: (i) the loss-based difficulty measurer is inaccurate; ii) the hard samples are under-utilized from a deweighting mechanism. To overcome these challenges, in this paper we propose a novel mixed-order self-paced curriculum learning (Mo-SCL) method. We integrate both uncertainty and loss to better estimate difficulty online and mix both hard and easy samples in the same mini-batch to appropriately alleviate the problem of under-utilization of hard samples. We provide a theoretical investigation of our method in the context of stochastic gradient descent optimization and extensive experiments based on the DeepLesion benchmark dataset for universal lesion detection (ULD). When applied to two state-of-the-art ULD methods, the proposed mixed-order SCL method can provide a free boost to lesion detection accuracy without extra special network designs.


Classification of BCI-EEG based on augmented covariance matrix

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Objective: Electroencephalography signals are recorded as a multidimensional dataset. We propose a new framework based on the augmented covariance extracted from an autoregressive model to improve motor imagery classification. Methods: From the autoregressive model can be derived the Yule-Walker equations, which show the emergence of a symmetric positive definite matrix: the augmented covariance matrix. The state-of the art for classifying covariance matrices is based on Riemannian Geometry. A fairly natural idea is therefore to extend the standard approach using these augmented covariance matrices. The methodology for creating the augmented covariance matrix shows a natural connection with the delay embedding theorem proposed by Takens for dynamical systems. Such an embedding method is based on the knowledge of two parameters: the delay and the embedding dimension, respectively related to the lag and the order of the autoregressive model. This approach provides new methods to compute the hyper-parameters in addition to standard grid search. Results: The augmented covariance matrix performed noticeably better than any state-of-the-art methods. We will test our approach on several datasets and several subjects using the MOABB framework, using both within-session and cross-session evaluation. Conclusion: The improvement in results is due to the fact that the augmented covariance matrix incorporates not only spatial but also temporal information, incorporating nonlinear components of the signal through an embedding procedure, which allows the leveraging of dynamical systems algorithms. Significance: These results extend the concepts and the results of the Riemannian distance based classification algorithm.


Trading Information between Latents in Hierarchical Variational Autoencoders

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Variational Autoencoders (VAEs) were originally motivated (Kingma & Welling, 2014) as probabilistic generative models in which one performs approximate Bayesian inference. The proposal of $\beta$-VAEs (Higgins et al., 2017) breaks this interpretation and generalizes VAEs to application domains beyond generative modeling (e.g., representation learning, clustering, or lossy data compression) by introducing an objective function that allows practitioners to trade off between the information content ("bit rate") of the latent representation and the distortion of reconstructed data (Alemi et al., 2018). In this paper, we reconsider this rate/distortion trade-off in the context of hierarchical VAEs, i.e., VAEs with more than one layer of latent variables. We identify a general class of inference models for which one can split the rate into contributions from each layer, which can then be tuned independently. We derive theoretical bounds on the performance of downstream tasks as functions of the individual layers' rates and verify our theoretical findings in large-scale experiments. Our results provide guidance for practitioners on which region in rate-space to target for a given application.


REIN: A Comprehensive Benchmark Framework for Data Cleaning Methods in ML Pipelines

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Nowadays, machine learning (ML) plays a vital role in many aspects of our daily life. In essence, building well-performing ML applications requires the provision of high-quality data throughout the entire life-cycle of such applications. Nevertheless, most of the real-world tabular data suffer from different types of discrepancies, such as missing values, outliers, duplicates, pattern violation, and inconsistencies. Such discrepancies typically emerge while collecting, transferring, storing, and/or integrating the data. To deal with these discrepancies, numerous data cleaning methods have been introduced. However, the majority of such methods broadly overlook the requirements imposed by downstream ML models. As a result, the potential of utilizing these data cleaning methods in ML pipelines is predominantly unrevealed. In this work, we introduce a comprehensive benchmark, called REIN1, to thoroughly investigate the impact of data cleaning methods on various ML models. Through the benchmark, we provide answers to important research questions, e.g., where and whether data cleaning is a necessary step in ML pipelines. To this end, the benchmark examines 38 simple and advanced error detection and repair methods. To evaluate these methods, we utilized a wide collection of ML models trained on 14 publicly-available datasets covering different domains and encompassing realistic as well as synthetic error profiles.


Enhancing E-Commerce Recommendation using Pre-Trained Language Model and Fine-Tuning

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Pretrained Language Models (PLM) have been greatly successful on a board range of natural language processing (NLP) tasks. However, it has just started being applied to the domain of recommendation systems. Traditional recommendation algorithms failed to incorporate the rich textual information in e-commerce datasets, which hinderss the performance of those models. We present a thorough investigation on the effect of various strategy of incorporating PLMs into traditional recommender algorithms on one of the e-commerce datasets, and we compare the results with vanilla recommender baseline models. We show that the application of PLMs and domain specific fine-tuning lead to an increase on the predictive capability of combined models. These results accentuate the importance of utilizing textual information in the context of e-commerce, and provides insight on how to better apply PLMs alongside traditional recommender system algorithms. The code used in this paper is available on Github: https://github.com/NuofanXu/bert_retail_recommender.


What are the mechanisms underlying metacognitive learning?

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

How is it that humans can solve complex planning tasks so efficiently despite limited cognitive resources? One reason is its ability to know how to use its limited computational resources to make clever choices. We postulate that people learn this ability from trial and error (metacognitive reinforcement learning). Here, we systematize models of the underlying learning mechanisms and enhance them with more sophisticated additional mechanisms. We fit the resulting 86 models to human data collected in previous experiments where different phenomena of metacognitive learning were demonstrated and performed Bayesian model selection. Our results suggest that a gradient ascent through the space of cognitive strategies can explain most of the observed qualitative phenomena, and is therefore a promising candidate for explaining the mechanism underlying metacognitive learning.


Testing robustness of predictions of trained classifiers against naturally occurring perturbations

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Correctly quantifying the robustness of machine learning models is a central aspect in judging their suitability for specific tasks, and ultimately, for generating trust in them. We address the problem of finding the robustness of individual predictions. We show both theoretically and with empirical examples that a method based on counterfactuals that was previously proposed for this is insufficient, as it is not a valid metric for determining the robustness against perturbations that occur ``naturally'', outside specific adversarial attack scenarios. We propose a flexible approach that models possible perturbations in input data individually for each application. This is then combined with a probabilistic approach that computes the likelihood that a ``real-world'' perturbation will change a prediction, thus giving quantitative information of the robustness of individual predictions of the trained machine learning model. The method does not require access to the internals of the classifier and thus in principle works for any black-box model. It is, however, based on Monte-Carlo sampling and thus only suited for input spaces with small dimensions. We illustrate our approach on the Iris and the Ionosphere datasets, on an application predicting fog at an airport, and on analytically solvable cases.