Statistical Learning
Fundamental Bounds on Online Strategic Classification
Ahmadi, Saba, Blum, Avrim, Yang, Kunhe
We study the problem of online binary classification where strategic agents can manipulate their observable features in predefined ways, modeled by a manipulation graph, in order to receive a positive classification. We show this setting differs in fundamental ways from non-strategic online classification. For instance, whereas in the non-strategic case, a mistake bound of $\ln|H|$ is achievable via the halving algorithm when the target function belongs to a known class $H$, we show that no deterministic algorithm can achieve a mistake bound $o(\Delta)$ in the strategic setting, where $\Delta$ is the maximum degree of the manipulation graph (even when $|H|=O(\Delta)$). We obtain an algorithm achieving mistake bound $O(\Delta\ln|H|)$. We also extend this to the agnostic setting and obtain an algorithm with a $\Delta$ multiplicative regret, and we show no deterministic algorithm can achieve $o(\Delta)$ multiplicative regret. Next, we study two randomized models based on whether the random choices are made before or after agents respond, and show they exhibit fundamental differences. In the first model, at each round the learner deterministically chooses a probability distribution over classifiers inducing expected values on each vertex (probabilities of being classified as positive), which the strategic agents respond to. We show that any learner in this model has to suffer linear regret. On the other hand, in the second model, while the adversary who selects the next agent must respond to the learner's probability distribution over classifiers, the agent then responds to the actual hypothesis classifier drawn from this distribution. Surprisingly, we show this model is more advantageous to the learner, and we design randomized algorithms that achieve sublinear regret bounds against both oblivious and adaptive adversaries.
Subspace based Federated Unlearning
Li, Guanghao, Shen, Li, Sun, Yan, Hu, Yue, Hu, Han, Tao, Dacheng
Federated learning (FL) enables multiple clients to train a machine learning model collaboratively without exchanging their local data. Federated unlearning is an inverse FL process that aims to remove a specified target client's contribution in FL to satisfy the user's right to be forgotten. Most existing federated unlearning algorithms require the server to store the history of the parameter updates, which is not applicable in scenarios where the server storage resource is constrained. In this paper, we propose a simple-yet-effective subspace based federated unlearning method, dubbed SFU, that lets the global model perform gradient ascent in the orthogonal space of input gradient spaces formed by other clients to eliminate the target client's contribution without requiring additional storage. Specifically, the server first collects the gradients generated from the target client after performing gradient ascent, and the input representation matrix is computed locally by the remaining clients. We also design a differential privacy method to protect the privacy of the representation matrix. Then the server merges those representation matrices to get the input gradient subspace and updates the global model in the orthogonal subspace of the input gradient subspace to complete the forgetting task with minimal model performance degradation. Experiments on MNIST, CIFAR10, and CIFAR100 show that SFU outperforms several state-of-the-art (SOTA) federated unlearning algorithms by a large margin in various settings.
A Comprehensive Survey on Source-free Domain Adaptation
Yu, Zhiqi, Li, Jingjing, Du, Zhekai, Zhu, Lei, Shen, Heng Tao
Over the past decade, domain adaptation has become a widely studied branch of transfer learning that aims to improve performance on target domains by leveraging knowledge from the source domain. Conventional domain adaptation methods often assume access to both source and target domain data simultaneously, which may not be feasible in real-world scenarios due to privacy and confidentiality concerns. As a result, the research of Source-Free Domain Adaptation (SFDA) has drawn growing attention in recent years, which only utilizes the source-trained model and unlabeled target data to adapt to the target domain. Despite the rapid explosion of SFDA work, yet there has no timely and comprehensive survey in the field. To fill this gap, we provide a comprehensive survey of recent advances in SFDA and organize them into a unified categorization scheme based on the framework of transfer learning. Instead of presenting each approach independently, we modularize several components of each method to more clearly illustrate their relationships and mechanics in light of the composite properties of each method. Furthermore, we compare the results of more than 30 representative SFDA methods on three popular classification benchmarks, namely Office-31, Office-home, and VisDA, to explore the effectiveness of various technical routes and the combination effects among them. Additionally, we briefly introduce the applications of SFDA and related fields. Drawing from our analysis of the challenges facing SFDA, we offer some insights into future research directions and potential settings.
Financial Distress Prediction For Small And Medium Enterprises Using Machine Learning Techniques
Gao, Yuan, Jiang, Biao, Zhou, Jietong
Financial Distress Prediction plays a crucial role in the economy by accurately forecasting the number and probability of failing structures, providing insight into the growth and stability of a country's economy. However, predicting financial distress for Small and Medium Enterprises is challenging due to their inherent ambiguity, leading to increased funding costs and decreased chances of receiving funds. While several strategies have been developed for effective FCP, their implementation, accuracy, and data security fall short of practical applications. Additionally, many of these strategies perform well for a portion of the dataset but are not adaptable to various datasets. As a result, there is a need to develop a productive prediction model for better order execution and adaptability to different datasets. In this review, we propose a feature selection algorithm for FCP based on element credits and data source collection. Current financial distress prediction models rely mainly on financial statements and disregard the timeliness of organization tests. Therefore, we propose a corporate FCP model that better aligns with industry practice and incorporates the gathering of thin-head component analysis of financial data, corporate governance qualities, and market exchange data with a Relevant Vector Machine. Experimental results demonstrate that this strategy can improve the forecast efficiency of financial distress with fewer characteristic factors.
A Constraints Fusion-induced Symmetric Nonnegative Matrix Factorization Approach for Community Detection
Community is a fundamental and critical characteristic of an undirected social network, making community detection be a vital yet thorny issue in network representation learning. A symmetric and non-negative matrix factorization (SNMF) model is frequently adopted to address this issue owing to its great interpretability and scalability. However, it adopts a single latent factor matrix to represent an undirected network for precisely representing its symmetry, which leads to loss of representation learning ability due to the reduced latent space. Motivated by this discovery, this paper proposes a novel Constraints Fusion-induced Symmetric Nonnegative Matrix Factorization (CFS) model that adopts three-fold ideas: a) Representing a target undirected network with multiple latent factor matrices, thus preserving its representation learning capacity; b) Incorporating a symmetry-regularizer that preserves the symmetry of the learnt low-rank approximation to the adjacency matrix into the loss function, thus making the resultant detector well-aware of the target network's symmetry; and c) Introducing a graph-regularizer that preserves local invariance of the network's intrinsic geometry, thus making the achieved detector well-aware of community structure within the target network. Extensively empirical studies on eight real-world social networks from industrial applications demonstrate that the proposed CFS model significantly outperforms state-of-the-art models in achieving highly-accurate community detection results.
Understanding the Impact of Competing Events on Heterogeneous Treatment Effect Estimation from Time-to-Event Data
Curth, Alicia, van der Schaar, Mihaela
We study the problem of inferring heterogeneous treatment effects (HTEs) from time-to-event data in the presence of competing events. Albeit its great practical relevance, this problem has received little attention compared to its counterparts studying HTE estimation without time-to-event data or competing events. We take an outcome modeling approach to estimating HTEs, and consider how and when existing prediction models for time-to-event data can be used as plug-in estimators for potential outcomes. We then investigate whether competing events present new challenges for HTE estimation -- in addition to the standard confounding problem --, and find that, because there are multiple definitions of causal effects in this setting -- namely total, direct and separable effects --, competing events can act as an additional source of covariate shift depending on the desired treatment effect interpretation and associated estimand. We theoretically analyze and empirically illustrate when and how these challenges play a role when using generic machine learning prediction models for the estimation of HTEs.
Ensemble Clustering via Co-association Matrix Self-enhancement
Jia, Yuheng, Tao, Sirui, Wang, Ran, Wang, Yongheng
Ensemble clustering integrates a set of base clustering results to generate a stronger one. Existing methods usually rely on a co-association (CA) matrix that measures how many times two samples are grouped into the same cluster according to the base clusterings to achieve ensemble clustering. However, when the constructed CA matrix is of low quality, the performance will degrade. In this paper, we propose a simple yet effective CA matrix self-enhancement framework that can improve the CA matrix to achieve better clustering performance. Specifically, we first extract the high-confidence (HC) information from the base clusterings to form a sparse HC matrix. By propagating the highly-reliable information of the HC matrix to the CA matrix and complementing the HC matrix according to the CA matrix simultaneously, the proposed method generates an enhanced CA matrix for better clustering. Technically, the proposed model is formulated as a symmetric constrained convex optimization problem, which is efficiently solved by an alternating iterative algorithm with convergence and global optimum theoretically guaranteed. Extensive experimental comparisons with twelve state-of-the-art methods on eight benchmark datasets substantiate the effectiveness, flexibility and efficiency of the proposed model in ensemble clustering. The codes and datasets can be downloaded at https://github.com/Siritao/EC-CMS.
Combining Multi-Fidelity Modelling and Asynchronous Batch Bayesian Optimization
Folch, Jose Pablo, Lee, Robert M, Shafei, Behrang, Walz, David, Tsay, Calvin, van der Wilk, Mark, Misener, Ruth
The optimal design of many engineering processes can be subject to expensive and time-consuming experimentation. For efficiency, we seek to avoid wasting valuable resources in testing sub-optimal designs. One way to achieve this is by obtaining cheaper approximations of the desired system, which allow us to quickly explore new regimes and avoid areas that are clearly sub-optimal. As an example, consider the case diagrammed in Figure 1 from battery materials research with the goal of designing electrode materials for optimal performance in pouch cells. We can use experiments with cheaper coin cells and shorter test procedures to approximate the behaviour of the material in longer stability tests in pouch cells, which is in turn closer to the expected performance in electric car applications [Chen et al., 2019, Dörfler et al., 2020, Liu et al., 2021]. Similarly, design goals regarding battery life such as discharge capacity retention can be approximated using an early prediction model on the first few charge cycles rather than running aging and stability tests to completion [Attia et al., 2020].
BaIT: Barometer for Information Trustworthiness
Nolan, Oisín, van Mourik, Jeroen, Tilbury, Callum Rhys
This paper presents a new approach to the FNC-1 fake news classification task which involves employing pre-trained encoder models from similar NLP tasks, namely sentence similarity and natural language inference, and two neural network architectures using this approach are proposed. Methods in data augmentation are explored as a means of tackling class imbalance in the dataset, employing common pre-existing methods and proposing a method for sample generation in the under-represented class using a novel sentence negation algorithm. Comparable overall performance with existing baselines is achieved, while significantly increasing accuracy on an under-represented but nonetheless important class for FNC-1.
Catch You and I Can: Revealing Source Voiceprint Against Voice Conversion
Deng, Jiangyi, Chen, Yanjiao, Zhong, Yinan, Miao, Qianhao, Gong, Xueluan, Xu, Wenyuan
Voice conversion (VC) techniques can be abused by malicious parties to transform their audios to sound like a target speaker, making it hard for a human being or a speaker verification/identification system to trace the source speaker. In this paper, we make the first attempt to restore the source voiceprint from audios synthesized by voice conversion methods with high credit. However, unveiling the features of the source speaker from a converted audio is challenging since the voice conversion operation intends to disentangle the original features and infuse the features of the target speaker. To fulfill our goal, we develop Revelio, a representation learning model, which learns to effectively extract the voiceprint of the source speaker from converted audio samples. We equip Revelio with a carefully-designed differential rectification algorithm to eliminate the influence of the target speaker by removing the representation component that is parallel to the voiceprint of the target speaker. We have conducted extensive experiments to evaluate the capability of Revelio in restoring voiceprint from audios converted by VQVC, VQVC+, AGAIN, and BNE. The experiments verify that Revelio is able to rebuild voiceprints that can be traced to the source speaker by speaker verification and identification systems. Revelio also exhibits robust performance under inter-gender conversion, unseen languages, and telephony networks.