Tree-based supervised learning algorithms, such as the Classification and Regression Tree (CART) (Breiman et al., 1984), Random Forests (Breiman, 2001), and XGBoost (Chen and Guestrin, 2016) are popular in practice due to their ability to learn complex nonlinear functions efficiently. Bayesian Additive Regression Trees (BART, Chipman et al. (2010)) is the most popular model-based regression tree method; it has been demonstrated empirically to provide accurate out-of-sample prediction (without covariate shift), and its Bayesian uncertainty intervals often out-perform alternatives in terms of frequentist coverage (see Chipman et al. (2010); Kapelner and Bleich (2013)). XBART (He and Hahn, 2021) is a stochastic tree ensemble method that can be used to approximate BART models in a fraction of the run-time. Throughout the paper, we will refer to BART models but will use the XBART fitting algorithm. While tree-based methods frequently provide accurate out-of-sample predictions, their ability to extrapolate is fundamentally limited by their intrinsic, piecewise constant structure.

The conditional average treatment effect (CATE) is the best measure of individual causal effects given baseline covariates. However, the CATE only captures the (conditional) average, and can overlook risks and tail events, which are important to treatment choice. In aggregate analyses, this is usually addressed by measuring the distributional treatment effect (DTE), such as differences in quantiles or tail expectations between treatment groups. Hypothetically, one can similarly fit conditional quantile regressions in each treatment group and take their difference, but this would not be robust to misspecification or provide agnostic best-in-class predictions. We provide a new robust and model-agnostic methodology for learning the conditional DTE (CDTE) for a class of problems that includes conditional quantile treatment effects, conditional super-quantile treatment effects, and conditional treatment effects on coherent risk measures given by $f$-divergences. Our method is based on constructing a special pseudo-outcome and regressing it on covariates using any regression learner. Our method is model-agnostic in that it can provide the best projection of CDTE onto the regression model class. Our method is robust in that even if we learn these nuisances nonparametrically at very slow rates, we can still learn CDTEs at rates that depend on the class complexity and even conduct inferences on linear projections of CDTEs. We investigate the behavior of our proposal in simulations, as well as in a case study of 401(k) eligibility effects on wealth.

Conditional local independence is an asymmetric independence relation among continuous time stochastic processes. It describes whether the evolution of one process is directly influenced by another process given the histories of additional processes, and it is important for the description and learning of causal relations among processes. We formulate a model-free framework for testing the hypothesis that a counting process is conditionally locally independent of another process. To this end, we introduce a new functional parameter called the Local Covariance Measure (LCM), which quantifies deviations from the hypothesis. Following the principles of double machine learning, we propose an estimator of the LCM and a test of the hypothesis using nonparametric estimators and sample splitting or cross-fitting. We call this test the (cross-fitted) Local Covariance Test ((X)-LCT), and we show that its level and power can be controlled uniformly, provided that the nonparametric estimators are consistent with modest rates. We illustrate the theory by an example based on a marginalized Cox model with time-dependent covariates, and we show in simulations that when double machine learning is used in combination with cross-fitting, then the test works well without restrictive parametric assumptions.

Reversible jump Markov chain Monte Carlo (RJMCMC) proposals that achieve reasonable acceptance rates and mixing are notoriously difficult to design in most applications. Inspired by recent advances in deep neural network-based normalizing flows and density estimation, we demonstrate an approach to enhance the efficiency of RJMCMC sampling by performing transdimensional jumps involving reference distributions. In contrast to other RJMCMC proposals, the proposed method is the first to apply a non-linear transport-based approach to construct efficient proposals between models with complicated dependency structures. It is shown that, in the setting where exact transports are used, our RJMCMC proposals have the desirable property that the acceptance probability depends only on the model probabilities. Numerical experiments demonstrate the efficacy of the approach.

While societal events often impact people worldwide, a significant fraction of events has a local focus that primarily affects specific language communities. Examples include national elections, the development of the Coronavirus pandemic in different countries, and local film festivals such as the C\'esar Awards in France and the Moscow International Film Festival in Russia. However, existing entity recommendation approaches do not sufficiently address the language context of recommendation. This article introduces the novel task of language-specific event recommendation, which aims to recommend events relevant to the user query in the language-specific context. This task can support essential information retrieval activities, including web navigation and exploratory search, considering the language context of user information needs. We propose LaSER, a novel approach toward language-specific event recommendation. LaSER blends the language-specific latent representations (embeddings) of entities and events and spatio-temporal event features in a learning to rank model. This model is trained on publicly available Wikipedia Clickstream data. The results of our user study demonstrate that LaSER outperforms state-of-the-art recommendation baselines by up to 33 percentage points in MAP@5 concerning the language-specific relevance of recommended events.

We study a heterogeneous agent macroeconomic model with an infinite number of households and firms competing in a labor market. Each household earns income and engages in consumption at each time step while aiming to maximize a concave utility subject to the underlying market conditions. The households aim to find the optimal saving strategy that maximizes their discounted cumulative utility given the market condition, while the firms determine the market conditions through maximizing corporate profit based on the household population behavior. The model captures a wide range of applications in macroeconomic studies, and we propose a data-driven reinforcement learning framework that finds the regularized competitive equilibrium of the model. The proposed algorithm enjoys theoretical guarantees in converging to the equilibrium of the market at a sub-linear rate.

Synthetic data is becoming an increasingly promising technology, and successful applications can improve privacy, fairness, and data democratization. While there are many methods for generating synthetic tabular data, the task remains non-trivial and unexplored for specific scenarios. One such scenario is survival data. Here, the key difficulty is censoring: for some instances, we are not aware of the time of event, or if one even occurred. Imbalances in censoring and time horizons cause generative models to experience three new failure modes specific to survival analysis: (1) generating too few at-risk members; (2) generating too many at-risk members; and (3) censoring too early. We formalize these failure modes and provide three new generative metrics to quantify them. Following this, we propose SurvivalGAN, a generative model that handles survival data firstly by addressing the imbalance in the censoring and event horizons, and secondly by using a dedicated mechanism for approximating time-to-event/censoring. We evaluate this method via extensive experiments on medical datasets. SurvivalGAN outperforms multiple baselines at generating survival data, and in particular addresses the failure modes as measured by the new metrics, in addition to improving downstream performance of survival models trained on the synthetic data.

Money laundering is the process where criminals use financial services to move massive amounts of illegal money to untraceable destinations and integrate them into legitimate financial systems. It is very crucial to identify such activities accurately and reliably in order to enforce an anti-money laundering (AML). Despite tremendous efforts to AML only a tiny fraction of illicit activities are prevented. From a given graph of money transfers between accounts of a bank, existing approaches attempted to detect money laundering. In particular, some approaches employ structural and behavioural dynamics of dense subgraph detection thereby not taking into consideration that money laundering involves high-volume flows of funds through chains of bank accounts. Some approaches model the transactions in the form of multipartite graphs to detect the complete flow of money from source to destination. However, existing approaches yield lower detection accuracy, making them less reliable. In this paper, we employ semi-supervised graph learning techniques on graphs of financial transactions in order to identify nodes involved in potential money laundering. Experimental results suggest that our approach can sport money laundering from real and synthetic transaction graphs.

Traditional feature selections need to know the feature space before learning, and online streaming feature selection (OSFS) is proposed to process streaming features on the fly. Existing methods divide features into relevance or irrelevance without missing data, and deleting irrelevant features may lead to in-formation loss. Motivated by this, we focus on completing the streaming feature matrix and division of feature correlation and propose online sparse streaming feature selection based on adapted classification (OS2FS-AC). This study uses Latent Factor Analysis (LFA) to pre-estimate missed data. Besides, we use the adaptive method to obtain the threshold, divide the features into strongly relevant, weakly relevant, and irrelevant features, and then divide weak relevance with more information. Experimental results on ten real-world data sets demonstrate that OS2FS-AC performs better than state-of-the-art algo-rithms.

Recently, generalization on out-of-distribution (OOD) data with correlation shift has attracted great attentions. The correlation shift is caused by the spurious attributes that correlate to the class label, as the correlation between them may vary in training and test data. For such a problem, we show that given the class label, the models that are conditionally independent of spurious attributes are OOD generalizable. Based on this, a metric Conditional Spurious Variation (CSV) which controls the OOD generalization error, is proposed to measure such conditional independence. To improve the OOD generalization, we regularize the training process with the proposed CSV. Under mild assumptions, our training objective can be formulated as a nonconvex-concave mini-max problem. An algorithm with a provable convergence rate is proposed to solve the problem. Extensive empirical results verify our algorithm's efficacy in improving OOD generalization.