Accurate forecasting and analysis of emerging pandemics play a crucial role in effective public health management and decision-making. Traditional approaches primarily rely on epidemiological data, overlooking other valuable sources of information that could act as sensors or indicators of pandemic patterns. In this paper, we propose a novel framework called MGL4MEP that integrates temporal graph neural networks and multi-modal data for learning and forecasting. We incorporate big data sources, including social media content, by utilizing specific pre-trained language models and discovering the underlying graph structure among users. This integration provides rich indicators of pandemic dynamics through learning with temporal graph neural networks. Extensive experiments demonstrate the effectiveness of our framework in pandemic forecasting and analysis, outperforming baseline methods across different areas, pandemic situations, and prediction horizons. The fusion of temporal graph learning and multi-modal data enables a comprehensive understanding of the pandemic landscape with less time lag, cheap cost, and more potential information indicators.

Time Series Classification (TSC) is essential in many fields, such as medicine, environmental science and finance, enabling tasks like disease diagnosis, anomaly detection, and stock price analysis. Machine learning models for TSC like Recurrent Neural Networks and InceptionTime, while successful in numerous applications, can face scalability limitations due to intensive computational requirements. To address this, efficient models such as ROCKET and its derivatives have emerged, simplifying training and achieving state-of-the-art performance by utilizing a large number of randomly generated features from time series data. However, due to their random nature, most of the generated features are redundant or non-informative, adding unnecessary computational load and compromising generalization. Here, we introduce Sequential Feature Detachment (SFD) as a method to identify and prune these non-essential features. SFD uses model coefficients to estimate feature importance and, unlike previous algorithms, can handle large feature sets without the need for complex hyperparameter tuning. Testing on the UCR archive demonstrates that SFD can produce models with $10\%$ of the original features while improving the accuracy $0.2\%$ on the test set. We also present an end-to-end procedure for determining an optimal balance between the number of features and model accuracy, called Detach-ROCKET. When applied to the largest binary UCR dataset, Detach-ROCKET is able to improve test accuracy by $0.6\%$ while reducing the number of features by $98.9\%$. Thus, our proposed procedure is not only lightweight to train and effective in reducing model size and enhancing generalization, but its significant reduction in feature count also paves the way for feature interpretation.

Prompt Tuning is emerging as a scalable and cost-effective method to fine-tune Pretrained Language Models (PLMs), which are often referred to as Large Language Models (LLMs). This study benchmarks the performance and computational efficiency of Prompt Tuning and baselines for multi-label text classification. This is applied to the challenging task of classifying companies into an investment firm's proprietary industry taxonomy, supporting their thematic investment strategy. Text-to-text classification is frequently reported to outperform task-specific classification heads, but has several limitations when applied to a multi-label classification problem where each label consists of multiple tokens: (a) Generated labels may not match any label in the label taxonomy; (b) The fine-tuning process lacks permutation invariance and is sensitive to the order of the provided labels; (c) The model provides binary decisions rather than appropriate confidence scores. Limitation (a) is addressed by applying constrained decoding using Trie Search, which slightly improves classification performance. All limitations (a), (b), and (c) are addressed by replacing the PLM's language head with a classification head, which is referred to as Prompt Tuned Embedding Classification (PTEC). This improves performance significantly, while also reducing computational costs during inference. In our industrial application, the training data is skewed towards well-known companies. We confirm that the model's performance is consistent across both well-known and less-known companies. Our overall results indicate the continuing need to adapt state-of-the-art methods to domain-specific tasks, even in the era of PLMs with strong generalization abilities. We release our codebase and a benchmarking dataset at https://github.com/EQTPartners/PTEC.

The goal of sequential recommendation (SR) is to predict a user's potential interested items based on her/his historical interaction sequences. Most existing sequential recommenders are developed based on ID features, which, despite their widespread use, often underperform with sparse IDs and struggle with the cold-start problem. Besides, inconsistent ID mappings hinder the model's transferability, isolating similar recommendation domains that could have been co-optimized. This paper aims to address these issues by exploring the potential of multi-modal information in learning robust and generalizable sequence representations. We propose MISSRec, a multi-modal pre-training and transfer learning framework for SR. On the user side, we design a Transformer-based encoder-decoder model, where the contextual encoder learns to capture the sequence-level multi-modal user interests while a novel interest-aware decoder is developed to grasp item-modality-interest relations for better sequence representation. On the candidate item side, we adopt a dynamic fusion module to produce user-adaptive item representation, providing more precise matching between users and items. We pre-train the model with contrastive learning objectives and fine-tune it in an efficient manner. Extensive experiments demonstrate the effectiveness and flexibility of MISSRec, promising a practical solution for real-world recommendation scenarios. Data and code are available on \url{https://github.com/gimpong/MM23-MISSRec}.

Solar power harbors immense potential in mitigating climate change by substantially reducing CO$_{2}$ emissions. Nonetheless, the inherent variability of solar irradiance poses a significant challenge for seamlessly integrating solar power into the electrical grid. While the majority of prior research has centered on employing purely time series-based methodologies for solar forecasting, only a limited number of studies have taken into account factors such as cloud cover or the surrounding physical context. In this paper, we put forth a deep learning architecture designed to harness spatio-temporal context using satellite data, to attain highly accurate \textit{day-ahead} time-series forecasting for any given station, with a particular emphasis on forecasting Global Horizontal Irradiance (GHI). We also suggest a methodology to extract a distribution for each time step prediction, which can serve as a very valuable measure of uncertainty attached to the forecast. When evaluating models, we propose a testing scheme in which we separate particularly difficult examples from easy ones, in order to capture the model performances in crucial situations, which in the case of this study are the days suffering from varying cloudy conditions. Furthermore, we present a new multi-modal dataset gathering satellite imagery over a large zone and time series for solar irradiance and other related physical variables from multiple geographically diverse solar stations. Our approach exhibits robust performance in solar irradiance forecasting, including zero-shot generalization tests at unobserved solar stations, and holds great promise in promoting the effective integration of solar power into the grid.

Cross-encoder models, which jointly encode and score a query-item pair, are prohibitively expensive for direct k-nearest neighbor (k-NN) search. Consequently, k-NN search typically employs a fast approximate retrieval (e.g. using BM25 or dual-encoder vectors), followed by reranking with a cross-encoder; however, the retrieval approximation often has detrimental recall regret. This problem is tackled by ANNCUR (Yadav et al., 2022), a recent work that employs a cross-encoder only, making search efficient using a relatively small number of anchor items, and a CUR matrix factorization. While ANNCUR's one-time selection of anchors tends to approximate the cross-encoder distances on average, doing so forfeits the capacity to accurately estimate distances to items near the query, leading to regret in the crucial end-task: recall of top-k items. In this paper, we propose ADACUR, a method that adaptively, iteratively, and efficiently minimizes the approximation error for the practically important top-k neighbors. It does so by iteratively performing k-NN search using the anchors available so far, then adding these retrieved nearest neighbors to the anchor set for the next round. Empirically, on multiple datasets, in comparison to previous traditional and state-of-the-art methods such as ANNCUR and dual-encoder-based retrieve-and-rerank, our proposed approach ADACUR consistently reduces recall error-by up to 70% on the important k = 1 setting-while using no more compute than its competitors.

Adversarial contrastive learning (ACL) is a technique that enhances standard contrastive learning (SCL) by incorporating adversarial data to learn a robust representation that can withstand adversarial attacks and common corruptions without requiring costly annotations. To improve transferability, the existing work introduced the standard invariant regularization (SIR) to impose style-independence property to SCL, which can exempt the impact of nuisance style factors in the standard representation. However, it is unclear how the style-independence property benefits ACL-learned robust representations. In this paper, we leverage the technique of causal reasoning to interpret the ACL and propose adversarial invariant regularization (AIR) to enforce independence from style factors. We regulate the ACL using both SIR and AIR to output the robust representation. Theoretically, we show that AIR implicitly encourages the representational distance between different views of natural data and their adversarial variants to be independent of style factors. Empirically, our experimental results show that invariant regularization significantly improves the performance of state-of-the-art ACL methods in terms of both standard generalization and robustness on downstream tasks. To the best of our knowledge, we are the first to apply causal reasoning to interpret ACL and develop AIR for enhancing ACL-learned robust representations.

Estimating the generalization performance is practically challenging on out-of-distribution (OOD) data without ground-truth labels. While previous methods emphasize the connection between distribution difference and OOD accuracy, we show that a large domain gap not necessarily leads to a low test accuracy. In this paper, we investigate this problem from the perspective of feature separability empirically and theoretically. Specifically, we propose a dataset-level score based upon feature dispersion to estimate the test accuracy under distribution shift. Our method is inspired by desirable properties of features in representation learning: high inter-class dispersion and high intra-class compactness. Our analysis shows that inter-class dispersion is strongly correlated with the model accuracy, while intra-class compactness does not reflect the generalization performance on OOD data. Extensive experiments demonstrate the superiority of our method in both prediction performance and computational efficiency.

We propose a framework for the automatic one-shot segmentation of synthetic images generated by a StyleGAN. Our framework is based on the observation that the multi-scale hidden features in the GAN generator hold useful semantic information that can be utilized for automatic on-the-fly segmentation of the generated images. Using these features, our framework learns to segment synthetic images using a self-supervised contrastive clustering algorithm that projects the hidden features into a compact space for per-pixel classification. This contrastive learner is based on using a novel data augmentation strategy and a pixel-wise swapped prediction loss that leads to faster learning of the feature vectors for one-shot segmentation. We have tested our implementation on five standard benchmarks to yield a segmentation performance that not only outperforms the semi-supervised baselines by an average wIoU margin of 1.02 % but also improves the inference speeds by a factor of 4.5. Finally, we also show the results of using the proposed one-shot learner in implementing BagGAN, a framework for producing annotated synthetic baggage X-ray scans for threat detection. This framework was trained and tested on the PIDRay baggage benchmark to yield a performance comparable to its baseline segmenter based on manual annotations.

For medical image segmentation, contrastive learning is the dominant practice to improve the quality of visual representations by contrasting semantically similar and dissimilar pairs of samples. This is enabled by the observation that without accessing ground truth labels, negative examples with truly dissimilar anatomical features, if sampled, can significantly improve the performance. In reality, however, these samples may come from similar anatomical regions and the models may struggle to distinguish the minority tail-class samples, making the tail classes more prone to misclassification, both of which typically lead to model collapse. In this paper, we propose ARCO, a semi-supervised contrastive learning (CL) framework with stratified group theory for medical image segmentation. In particular, we first propose building ARCO through the concept of variance-reduced estimation and show that certain variance-reduction techniques are particularly beneficial in pixel/voxel-level segmentation tasks with extremely limited labels. Furthermore, we theoretically prove these sampling techniques are universal in variance reduction. Finally, we experimentally validate our approaches on eight benchmarks, i.e., five 2D/3D medical and three semantic segmentation datasets, with different label settings, and our methods consistently outperform state-of-the-art semi-supervised methods. Additionally, we augment the CL frameworks with these sampling techniques and demonstrate significant gains over previous methods. We believe our work is an important step towards semi-supervised medical image segmentation by quantifying the limitation of current self-supervision objectives for accomplishing such challenging safety-critical tasks.