Recent research indicates that the performance of machine learning models can be improved by aligning the geometry of the latent space with the underlying data structure. Rather than relying solely on Euclidean space, researchers have proposed using hyperbolic and spherical spaces with constant curvature, or combinations thereof, to better model the latent space and enhance model performance. However, little attention has been given to the problem of automatically identifying the optimal latent geometry for the downstream task. We mathematically define this novel formulation and coin it as neural latent geometry search (NLGS). More specifically, we introduce an initial attempt to search for a latent geometry composed of a product of constant curvature model spaces with a small number of query evaluations, under some simplifying assumptions. To accomplish this, we propose a novel notion of distance between candidate latent geometries based on the Gromov-Hausdorff distance from metric geometry. In order to compute the Gromov-Hausdorff distance, we introduce a mapping function that enables the comparison of different manifolds by embedding them in a common high-dimensional ambient space. We then design a graph search space based on the notion of smoothness between latent geometries and employ the calculated distances as an additional inductive bias. Finally, we use Bayesian optimization to search for the optimal latent geometry in a query-efficient manner. This is a general method which can be applied to search for the optimal latent geometry for a variety of models and downstream tasks. We perform experiments on synthetic and real-world datasets to identify the optimal latent geometry for multiple machine learning problems.

Differential privacy guarantees allow the results of a statistical analysis involving sensitive data to be released without compromising the privacy of any individual taking part. Achieving such guarantees generally requires the injection of noise, either directly into parameter estimates or into the estimation process. Instead of artificially introducing perturbations, sampling from Bayesian posterior distributions has been shown to be a special case of the exponential mechanism, producing consistent, and efficient private estimates without altering the data generative process. The application of current approaches has, however, been limited by their strong bounding assumptions which do not hold for basic models, such as simple linear regressors. To ameliorate this, we propose $\beta$D-Bayes, a posterior sampling scheme from a generalised posterior targeting the minimisation of the $\beta$-divergence between the model and the data generating process. This provides private estimation that is generally applicable without requiring changes to the underlying model and consistently learns the data generating parameter. We show that $\beta$D-Bayes produces more precise inference estimation for the same privacy guarantees, and further facilitates differentially private estimation via posterior sampling for complex classifiers and continuous regression models such as neural networks for the first time.

Conditional independence (CI) testing is a fundamental and challenging task in modern statistics and machine learning. Many modern methods for CI testing rely on powerful supervised learning methods to learn regression functions or Bayes predictors as an intermediate step; we refer to this class of tests as regression-based tests. Although these methods are guaranteed to control Type-I error when the supervised learning methods accurately estimate the regression functions or Bayes predictors of interest, their behavior is less understood when they fail due to misspecified inductive biases; in other words, when the employed models are not flexible enough or when the training algorithm does not induce the desired predictors. Then, we study the performance of regression-based CI tests under misspecified inductive biases. Namely, we propose new approximations or upper bounds for the testing errors of three regression-based tests that depend on misspecification errors. Moreover, we introduce the Rao-Blackwellized Predictor Test (RBPT), a regression-based CI test robust against misspecified inductive biases. Finally, we conduct experiments with artificial and real data, showcasing the usefulness of our theory and methods.

Principal component regression (PCR) is a popular technique for fixed-design error-in-variables regression, a generalization of the linear regression setting in which the observed covariates are corrupted with random noise. We provide the first time-uniform finite sample guarantees for online (regularized) PCR whenever data is collected adaptively. Since the proof techniques for analyzing PCR in the fixed design setting do not readily extend to the online setting, our results rely on adapting tools from modern martingale concentration to the error-in-variables setting. As an application of our bounds, we provide a framework for experiment design in panel data settings when interventions are assigned adaptively. Our framework may be thought of as a generalization of the synthetic control and synthetic interventions frameworks, where data is collected via an adaptive intervention assignment policy.

Randomized experiments often need to be stopped prematurely due to the treatment having an unintended harmful effect. Existing methods that determine when to stop an experiment early are typically applied to the data in aggregate and do not account for treatment effect heterogeneity. In this paper, we study the early stopping of experiments for harm on heterogeneous populations. We first establish that current methods often fail to stop experiments when the treatment harms a minority group of participants. We then use causal machine learning to develop CLASH, the first broadly-applicable method for heterogeneous early stopping. We demonstrate CLASH's performance on simulated and real data and show that it yields effective early stopping for both clinical trials and A/B tests.

Sharpness-Aware Minimization (SAM) is an optimizer that takes a descent step based on the gradient at a perturbation $y_t = x_t + \rho \frac{\nabla f(x_t)}{\lVert \nabla f(x_t) \rVert}$ of the current point $x_t$. Existing studies prove convergence of SAM for smooth functions, but they do so by assuming decaying perturbation size $\rho$ and/or no gradient normalization in $y_t$, which is detached from practice. To address this gap, we study deterministic/stochastic versions of SAM with practical configurations (i.e., constant $\rho$ and gradient normalization in $y_t$) and explore their convergence properties on smooth functions with (non)convexity assumptions. Perhaps surprisingly, in many scenarios, we find out that SAM has limited capability to converge to global minima or stationary points. For smooth strongly convex functions, we show that while deterministic SAM enjoys tight global convergence rates of $\tilde \Theta(\frac{1}{T^2})$, the convergence bound of stochastic SAM suffers an inevitable additive term $O(\rho^2)$, indicating convergence only up to neighborhoods of optima. In fact, such $O(\rho^2)$ factors arise for stochastic SAM in all the settings we consider, and also for deterministic SAM in nonconvex cases; importantly, we prove by examples that such terms are unavoidable. Our results highlight vastly different characteristics of SAM with vs. without decaying perturbation size or gradient normalization, and suggest that the intuitions gained from one version may not apply to the other.

Standard conformal prediction methods provide a marginal coverage guarantee, which means that for a random test point, the conformal prediction set contains the true label with a user-specified probability. In many classification problems, we would like to obtain a stronger guarantee--that for test points of a specific class, the prediction set contains the true label with the same user-chosen probability. For the latter goal, existing conformal prediction methods do not work well when there is a limited amount of labeled data per class, as is often the case in real applications where the number of classes is large. We propose a method called clustered conformal prediction that clusters together classes having "similar" conformal scores and performs conformal prediction at the cluster level. Based on empirical evaluation across four image data sets with many (up to 1000) classes, we find that clustered conformal typically outperforms existing methods in terms of class-conditional coverage and set size metrics.

Minimising upper bounds on the population risk or the generalisation gap has been widely used in structural risk minimisation (SRM) -- this is in particular at the core of PAC-Bayesian learning. Despite its successes and unfailing surge of interest in recent years, a limitation of the PAC-Bayesian framework is that most bounds involve a Kullback-Leibler (KL) divergence term (or its variations), which might exhibit erratic behavior and fail to capture the underlying geometric structure of the learning problem -- hence restricting its use in practical applications. As a remedy, recent studies have attempted to replace the KL divergence in the PAC-Bayesian bounds with the Wasserstein distance. Even though these bounds alleviated the aforementioned issues to a certain extent, they either hold in expectation, are for bounded losses, or are nontrivial to minimize in an SRM framework. In this work, we contribute to this line of research and prove novel Wasserstein distance-based PAC-Bayesian generalisation bounds for both batch learning with independent and identically distributed (i.i.d.) data, and online learning with potentially non-i.i.d. data. Contrary to previous art, our bounds are stronger in the sense that (i) they hold with high probability, (ii) they apply to unbounded (potentially heavy-tailed) losses, and (iii) they lead to optimizable training objectives that can be used in SRM. As a result we derive novel Wasserstein-based PAC-Bayesian learning algorithms and we illustrate their empirical advantage on a variety of experiments.

In this work, we reveal a strong implicit bias of stochastic gradient descent (SGD) that drives overly expressive networks to much simpler subnetworks, thereby dramatically reducing the number of independent parameters, and improving generalization. To reveal this bias, we identify invariant sets, or subsets of parameter space that remain unmodified by SGD. We focus on two classes of invariant sets that correspond to simpler (sparse or low-rank) subnetworks and commonly appear in modern architectures. Our analysis uncovers that SGD exhibits a property of stochastic attractivity towards these simpler invariant sets. We establish a sufficient condition for stochastic attractivity based on a competition between the loss landscape's curvature around the invariant set and the noise introduced by stochastic gradients. Remarkably, we find that an increased level of noise strengthens attractivity, leading to the emergence of attractive invariant sets associated with saddle-points or local maxima of the train loss. We observe empirically the existence of attractive invariant sets in trained deep neural networks, implying that SGD dynamics often collapses to simple subnetworks with either vanishing or redundant neurons. We further demonstrate how this simplifying process of stochastic collapse benefits generalization in a linear teacher-student framework. Finally, through this analysis, we mechanistically explain why early training with large learning rates for extended periods benefits subsequent generalization.

To check the accuracy of Bayesian computations, it is common to use rank-based simulation-based calibration (SBC). However, SBC has drawbacks: The test statistic is somewhat ad-hoc, interactions are difficult to examine, multiple testing is a challenge, and the resulting p-value is not a divergence metric. We propose to replace the marginal rank test with a flexible classification approach that learns test statistics from data. This measure typically has a higher statistical power than the SBC rank test and returns an interpretable divergence measure of miscalibration, computed from classification accuracy. This approach can be used with different data generating processes to address likelihood-free inference or traditional inference methods like Markov chain Monte Carlo or variational inference. We illustrate an automated implementation using neural networks and statistically-inspired features, and validate the method with numerical and real data experiments.