Under model misspecification, it is known that Bayesian posteriors often do not properly quantify uncertainty about true or pseudo-true parameters. Even more fundamentally, misspecification leads to a lack of reproducibility in the sense that the same model will yield contradictory posteriors on independent data sets from the true distribution. To define a criterion for reproducible uncertainty quantification under misspecification, we consider the probability that two confidence sets constructed from independent data sets have nonempty overlap, and we establish a lower bound on this overlap probability that holds for any valid confidence sets. We prove that credible sets from the standard posterior can strongly violate this bound, particularly in high-dimensional settings (i.e., with dimension increasing with sample size), indicating that it is not internally coherent under misspecification. To improve reproducibility in an easy-to-use and widely applicable way, we propose to apply bagging to the Bayesian posterior ("BayesBag"'); that is, to use the average of posterior distributions conditioned on bootstrapped datasets. We motivate BayesBag from first principles based on Jeffrey conditionalization and show that the bagged posterior typically satisfies the overlap lower bound. Further, we prove a Bernstein--Von Mises theorem for the bagged posterior, establishing its asymptotic normal distribution. We demonstrate the benefits of BayesBag via simulation experiments and an application to crime rate prediction.

Quantifying the difference between two probability density functions, $p$ and $q$, using available data, is a fundamental problem in Statistics and Machine Learning. A usual approach for addressing this problem is the likelihood-ratio estimation (LRE) between $p$ and $q$, which -- to our best knowledge -- has been investigated mainly for the offline case. This paper contributes by introducing a new framework for online non-parametric LRE (OLRE) for the setting where pairs of iid observations $(x_t \sim p, x'_t \sim q)$ are observed over time. The non-parametric nature of our approach has the advantage of being agnostic to the forms of $p$ and $q$. Moreover, we capitalize on the recent advances in Kernel Methods and functional minimization to develop an estimator that can be efficiently updated online. We provide theoretical guarantees for the performance of the OLRE method along with empirical validation in synthetic experiments.

Randomized algorithms are important for solving large-scale optimization problems. In this paper, we propose a fast sketching algorithm for least square problems regularized by convex or nonconvex regularization functions, Sketching for Regularized Optimization (SRO). Our SRO algorithm first generates a sketch of the original data matrix, then solves the sketched problem. Different from existing randomized algorithms, our algorithm handles general Frechet subdifferentiable regularization functions in an unified framework. We present general theoretical result for the approximation error between the optimization results of the original problem and the sketched problem for regularized least square problems which can be convex or nonconvex. For arbitrary convex regularizer, relative-error bound is proved for the approximation error. Importantly, minimax rates for sparse signal estimation by solving the sketched sparse convex or nonconvex learning problems are also obtained using our general theoretical result under mild conditions. To the best of our knowledge, our results are among the first to demonstrate minimax rates for convex or nonconvex sparse learning problem by sketching under a unified theoretical framework. We further propose an iterative sketching algorithm which reduces the approximation error exponentially by iteratively invoking the sketching algorithm. Experimental results demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed SRO and Iterative SRO algorithms.

Kernel ridge regression, KRR, is a generalization of linear ridge regression that is non-linear in the data, but linear in the parameters. The solution can be obtained either as a closed-form solution, which includes a matrix inversion, or iteratively through gradient descent. Using the iterative approach opens up for changing the kernel during training, something that is investigated in this paper. We theoretically address the effects this has on model complexity and generalization. Based on our findings, we propose an update scheme for the bandwidth of translational-invariant kernels, where we let the bandwidth decrease to zero during training, thus circumventing the need for hyper-parameter selection. We demonstrate on real and synthetic data how decreasing the bandwidth during training outperforms using a constant bandwidth, selected by cross-validation and marginal likelihood maximization. We also show theoretically and empirically that using a decreasing bandwidth, we are able to achieve both zero training error in combination with good generalization, and a double descent behavior, phenomena that do not occur for KRR with constant bandwidth but are known to appear for neural networks.

Bayesian Optimization (BO) is a sample-efficient optimization algorithm widely employed across various applications. In some challenging BO tasks, input uncertainty arises due to the inevitable randomness in the optimization process, such as machining errors, execution noise, or contextual variability. This uncertainty deviates the input from the intended value before evaluation, resulting in significant performance fluctuations in the final result. In this paper, we introduce a novel robust Bayesian Optimization algorithm, AIRBO, which can effectively identify a robust optimum that performs consistently well under arbitrary input uncertainty. Our method directly models the uncertain inputs of arbitrary distributions by empowering the Gaussian Process with the Maximum Mean Discrepancy (MMD) and further accelerates the posterior inference via Nystrom approximation. Rigorous theoretical regret bound is established under MMD estimation error and extensive experiments on synthetic functions and real problems demonstrate that our approach can handle various input uncertainties and achieve state-of-the-art performance.

Recent studies in reinforcement learning (RL) have made significant progress by leveraging function approximation to alleviate the sample complexity hurdle for better performance. Despite the success, existing provably efficient algorithms typically rely on the accessibility of immediate feedback upon taking actions. The failure to account for the impact of delay in observations can significantly degrade the performance of real-world systems due to the regret blow-up. In this work, we tackle the challenge of delayed feedback in RL with linear function approximation by employing posterior sampling, which has been shown to empirically outperform the popular UCB algorithms in a wide range of regimes. We first introduce Delayed-PSVI, an optimistic value-based algorithm that effectively explores the value function space via noise perturbation with posterior sampling. We provide the first analysis for posterior sampling algorithms with delayed feedback in RL and show our algorithm achieves $\widetilde{O}(\sqrt{d^3H^3 T} + d^2H^2 E[\tau])$ worst-case regret in the presence of unknown stochastic delays. Here $E[\tau]$ is the expected delay. To further improve its computational efficiency and to expand its applicability in high-dimensional RL problems, we incorporate a gradient-based approximate sampling scheme via Langevin dynamics for Delayed-LPSVI, which maintains the same order-optimal regret guarantee with $\widetilde{O}(dHK)$ computational cost. Empirical evaluations are performed to demonstrate the statistical and computational efficacy of our algorithms.

This paper introduces a novel approach for multi-task regression that connects Kernel Machines (KMs) and Extreme Learning Machines (ELMs) through the exploitation of the Random Fourier Features (RFFs) approximation of the RBF kernel. In this sense, one of the contributions of this paper shows that for the proposed models, the KM and the ELM formulations can be regarded as two sides of the same coin. These proposed models, termed RFF-BLR, stand on a Bayesian framework that simultaneously addresses two main design goals. On the one hand, it fits multitask regressors based on KMs endowed with RBF kernels. On the other hand, it enables the introduction of a common-across-tasks prior that promotes multioutput sparsity in the ELM view. This Bayesian approach facilitates the simultaneous consideration of both the KM and ELM perspectives enabling (i) the optimisation of the RBF kernel parameter $\gamma$ within a probabilistic framework, (ii) the optimisation of the model complexity, and (iii) an efficient transfer of knowledge across tasks. The experimental results show that this framework can lead to significant performance improvements compared to the state-of-the-art methods in multitask nonlinear regression.

Transformer has shown state-of-the-art performance on various applications and has recently emerged as a promising tool for surrogate modeling of partial differential equations (PDEs). Despite the introduction of linear-complexity attention, applying Transformer to problems with a large number of grid points can be numerically unstable and computationally expensive. In this work, we propose Factorized Transformer (FactFormer), which is based on an axial factorized kernel integral. Concretely, we introduce a learnable projection operator that decomposes the input function into multiple sub-functions with one-dimensional domain. These sub-functions are then evaluated and used to compute the instance-based kernel with an axial factorized scheme. We showcase that the proposed model is able to simulate 2D Kolmogorov flow on a $256\times 256$ grid and 3D smoke buoyancy on a $64\times64\times64$ grid with good accuracy and efficiency. The proposed factorized scheme can serve as a computationally efficient low-rank surrogate for the full attention scheme when dealing with multi-dimensional problems.

Data over non-Euclidean manifolds, often discretized as surface meshes, naturally arise in computer graphics and biological and physical systems. In particular, solutions to partial differential equations (PDEs) over manifolds depend critically on the underlying geometry. While graph neural networks have been successfully applied to PDEs, they do not incorporate surface geometry and do not consider local gauge symmetries of the manifold. Alternatively, recent works on gauge equivariant convolutional and attentional architectures on meshes leverage the underlying geometry but underperform in modeling surface PDEs with complex nonlinear dynamics. To address these issues, we introduce a new gauge equivariant architecture using nonlinear message passing. Our novel architecture achieves higher performance than either convolutional or attentional networks on domains with highly complex and nonlinear dynamics. However, similar to the non-mesh case, design trade-offs favor convolutional, attentional, or message passing networks for different tasks; we investigate in which circumstances our message passing method provides the most benefit.

Sampling a probability distribution with an unknown normalization constant is a fundamental problem in computational science and engineering. This task may be cast as an optimization problem over all probability measures, and an initial distribution can be evolved to the desired minimizer dynamically via gradient flows. Mean-field models, whose law is governed by the gradient flow in the space of probability measures, may also be identified; particle approximations of these mean-field models form the basis of algorithms. The gradient flow approach is also the basis of algorithms for variational inference, in which the optimization is performed over a parameterized family of probability distributions such as Gaussians, and the underlying gradient flow is restricted to the parameterized family. By choosing different energy functionals and metrics for the gradient flow, different algorithms with different convergence properties arise. In this paper, we concentrate on the Kullback-Leibler divergence after showing that, up to scaling, it has the unique property that the gradient flows resulting from this choice of energy do not depend on the normalization constant. For the metrics, we focus on variants of the Fisher-Rao, Wasserstein, and Stein metrics; we introduce the affine invariance property for gradient flows, and their corresponding mean-field models, determine whether a given metric leads to affine invariance, and modify it to make it affine invariant if it does not. We study the resulting gradient flows in both probability density space and Gaussian space. The flow in the Gaussian space may be understood as a Gaussian approximation of the flow. We demonstrate that the Gaussian approximation based on the metric and through moment closure coincide, establish connections between them, and study their long-time convergence properties showing the advantages of affine invariance.