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 Statistical Learning


Short-term Volatility Estimation for High Frequency Trades using Gaussian processes (GPs)

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

The fundamental theorem behind financial markets is that stock prices are intrinsically complex and stochastic. One of the complexities is the volatility associated with stock prices. Volatility is a tendency for prices to change unexpectedly [1]. Price volatility is often detrimental to the return economics, and thus, investors should factor it in whenever making investment decisions, choices, and temporal or permanent moves. It is, therefore, crucial to make necessary and regular short and long-term stock price volatility forecasts for the safety and economics of investors returns. These forecasts should be accurate and not misleading. Different models and methods, such as ARCH GARCH models, have been intuitively implemented to make such forecasts. However, such traditional means fail to capture the short-term volatility forecasts effectively. This paper, therefore, investigates and implements a combination of numeric and probabilistic models for short-term volatility and return forecasting for high-frequency trades. The essence is that one-day-ahead volatility forecasts were made with Gaussian Processes (GPs) applied to the outputs of a Numerical market prediction (NMP) model. Firstly, the stock price data from NMP was corrected by a GP. Since it is not easy to set price limits in a market due to its free nature and randomness, a Censored GP was used to model the relationship between the corrected stock prices and returns. Forecasting errors were evaluated using the implied and estimated data.


Classification Methods Based on Machine Learning for the Analysis of Fetal Health Data

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

The persistent battle to decrease childhood mortality serves as a commonly employed benchmark for gauging advancements in the field of medicine. Globally, the under-5 mortality rate stands at approximately 5 million, with a significant portion of these deaths being avoidable. Given the significance of this problem, Machine learning-based techniques have emerged as a prominent tool for assessing fetal health. In this work, we have analyzed the classification performance of various machine learning models for fetal health analysis. Classification performance of various machine learning models, such as support vector machine (SVM), random forest(RF), and attentive interpretable tabular learning (TabNet) have been assessed on fetal health. Moreover, dimensionality reduction techniques, such as Principal component analysis (PCA) and Linear discriminant analysis (LDA) have been implemented to obtain better classification performance with less number of features. A TabNet model on a fetal health dataset provides a classification accuracy of 94.36%. In general, this technology empowers doctors and healthcare experts to achieve precise fetal health classification and identify the most influential features in the process.


PACOL: Poisoning Attacks Against Continual Learners

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Continual learning algorithms are typically exposed to untrusted sources that contain training data inserted by adversaries and bad actors. An adversary can insert a small number of poisoned samples, such as mislabeled samples from previously learned tasks, or intentional adversarial perturbed samples, into the training datasets, which can drastically reduce the model's performance. In this work, we demonstrate that continual learning systems can be manipulated by malicious misinformation and present a new category of data poisoning attacks specific for continual learners, which we refer to as {\em Poisoning Attacks Against Continual Learners} (PACOL). The effectiveness of labeling flipping attacks inspires PACOL; however, PACOL produces attack samples that do not change the sample's label and produce an attack that causes catastrophic forgetting. A comprehensive set of experiments shows the vulnerability of commonly used generative replay and regularization-based continual learning approaches against attack methods. We evaluate the ability of label-flipping and a new adversarial poison attack, namely PACOL proposed in this work, to force the continual learning system to forget the knowledge of a learned task(s). More specifically, we compared the performance degradation of continual learning systems trained on benchmark data streams with and without poisoning attacks. Moreover, we discuss the stealthiness of the attacks in which we test the success rate of data sanitization defense and other outlier detection-based defenses for filtering out adversarial samples.


A Whole New Ball Game: A Primal Accelerated Method for Matrix Games and Minimizing the Maximum of Smooth Functions

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

We design algorithms for minimizing $\max_{i\in[n]} f_i(x)$ over a $d$-dimensional Euclidean or simplex domain. When each $f_i$ is $1$-Lipschitz and $1$-smooth, our method computes an $\epsilon$-approximate solution using $\widetilde{O}(n \epsilon^{-1/3} + \epsilon^{-2})$ gradient and function evaluations, and $\widetilde{O}(n \epsilon^{-4/3})$ additional runtime. For large $n$, our evaluation complexity is optimal up to polylogarithmic factors. In the special case where each $f_i$ is linear -- which corresponds to finding a near-optimal primal strategy in a matrix game -- our method finds an $\epsilon$-approximate solution in runtime $\widetilde{O}(n (d/\epsilon)^{2/3} + nd + d\epsilon^{-2})$. For $n>d$ and $\epsilon=1/\sqrt{n}$ this improves over all existing first-order methods. When additionally $d = \omega(n^{8/11})$ our runtime also improves over all known interior point methods. Our algorithm combines three novel primitives: (1) A dynamic data structure which enables efficient stochastic gradient estimation in small $\ell_2$ or $\ell_1$ balls. (2) A mirror descent algorithm tailored to our data structure implementing an oracle which minimizes the objective over these balls. (3) A simple ball oracle acceleration framework suitable for non-Euclidean geometry.


A Video-Based Activity Classification of Human Pickers in Agriculture

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

In farming systems, harvesting operations are tedious, time- and resource-consuming tasks. Based on this, deploying a fleet of autonomous robots to work alongside farmworkers may provide vast productivity and logistics benefits. Then, an intelligent robotic system should monitor human behavior, identify the ongoing activities and anticipate the worker's needs. In this work, the main contribution consists of creating a benchmark model for video-based human pickers detection, classifying their activities to serve in harvesting operations for different agricultural scenarios. Our solution uses the combination of a Mask Region-based Convolutional Neural Network (Mask R-CNN) for object detection and optical flow for motion estimation with newly added statistical attributes of flow motion descriptors, named as Correlation Sensitivity (CS). A classification criterion is defined based on the Kernel Density Estimation (KDE) analysis and K-means clustering algorithm, which are implemented upon in-house collected dataset from different crop fields like strawberry polytunnels and apple tree orchards. The proposed framework is quantitatively analyzed using sensitivity, specificity, and accuracy measures and shows satisfactory results amidst various dataset challenges such as lighting variation, blur, and occlusions.


Formal concept analysis for evaluating intrinsic dimension of a natural language

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Some results of a computational experiment for determining the intrinsic dimension of linguistic varieties for the Bengali and Russian languages are presented. At the same time, both sets of words and sets of bigrams in these languages were considered separately. The method used to solve this problem was based on formal concept analysis algorithms. It was found that the intrinsic dimensions of these languages are significantly less than the dimensions used in popular neural network models in natural language processing.


Accelerating L-shaped Two-stage Stochastic SCUC with Learning Integrated Benders Decomposition

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Benders decomposition is widely used to solve large mixed-integer problems. This paper takes advantage of machine learning and proposes enhanced variants of Benders decomposition for solving two-stage stochastic security-constrained unit commitment (SCUC). The problem is decomposed into a master problem and subproblems corresponding to a load scenario. The goal is to reduce the computational costs and memory usage of Benders decomposition by creating tighter cuts and reducing the size of the master problem. Three approaches are proposed, namely regression Benders, classification Benders, and regression-classification Benders. A regressor reads load profile scenarios and predicts subproblem objective function proxy variables to form tighter cuts for the master problem. A criterion is defined to measure the level of usefulness of cuts with respect to their contribution to lower bound improvement. Useful cuts that contain the necessary information to form the feasible region are identified with and without a classification learner. Useful cuts are iteratively added to the master problem, and non-useful cuts are discarded to reduce the computational burden of each Benders iteration. Simulation studies on multiple test systems show the effectiveness of the proposed learning-aided Benders decomposition for solving two-stage SCUC as compared to conventional multi-cut Benders decomposition.


Exploring Machine Learning Models for Federated Learning: A Review of Approaches, Performance, and Limitations

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

In the growing world of artificial intelligence, federated learning is a distributed learning framework enhanced to preserve the privacy of individuals' data. Federated learning lays the groundwork for collaborative research in areas where the data is sensitive. Federated learning has several implications for real-world problems. In times of crisis, when real-time decision-making is critical, federated learning allows multiple entities to work collectively without sharing sensitive data. This distributed approach enables us to leverage information from multiple sources and gain more diverse insights. This paper is a systematic review of the literature on privacy-preserving machine learning in the last few years based on the Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analyses (PRISMA) guidelines. Specifically, we have presented an extensive review of supervised/unsupervised machine learning algorithms, ensemble methods, meta-heuristic approaches, blockchain technology, and reinforcement learning used in the framework of federated learning, in addition to an overview of federated learning applications. This paper reviews the literature on the components of federated learning and its applications in the last few years. The main purpose of this work is to provide researchers and practitioners with a comprehensive overview of federated learning from the machine learning point of view. A discussion of some open problems and future research directions in federated learning is also provided.


Adaptive Modelling Approach for Row-Type Dependent Predictive Analysis (RTDPA): A Framework for Designing Machine Learning Models for Credit Risk Analysis in Banking Sector

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

In many real-world datasets, rows may have distinct characteristics and require different modeling approaches for accurate predictions. In this paper, we propose an adaptive modeling approach for row-type dependent predictive analysis(RTDPA). Our framework enables the development of models that can effectively handle diverse row types within a single dataset. Our dataset from XXX bank contains two different risk categories, personal loan and agriculture loan. each of them are categorised into four classes standard, sub-standard, doubtful and loss. We performed tailored data pre processing and feature engineering to different row types. We selected traditional machine learning predictive models and advanced ensemble techniques. Our findings indicate that all predictive approaches consistently achieve a precision rate of no less than 90%. For RTDPA, the algorithms are applied separately for each row type, allowing the models to capture the specific patterns and characteristics of each row type. This approach enables targeted predictions based on the row type, providing a more accurate and tailored classification for the given dataset.Additionally, the suggested model consistently offers decision makers valuable and enduring insights that are strategic in nature in banking sector.


Self-trained Panoptic Segmentation

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Panoptic segmentation is an important computer vision task which combines semantic and instance segmentation. It plays a crucial role in domains of medical image analysis, self-driving vehicles, and robotics by providing a comprehensive understanding of visual environments. Traditionally, deep learning panoptic segmentation models have relied on dense and accurately annotated training data, which is expensive and time consuming to obtain. Recent advancements in self-supervised learning approaches have shown great potential in leveraging synthetic and unlabelled data to generate pseudo-labels using self-training to improve the performance of instance and semantic segmentation models. The three available methods for self-supervised panoptic segmentation use proposal-based transformer architectures which are computationally expensive, complicated and engineered for specific tasks. The aim of this work is to develop a framework to perform embedding-based self-supervised panoptic segmentation using self-training in a synthetic-to-real domain adaptation problem setting.