Computer vision systems that are deployed in safety-critical applications need to quantify their output uncertainty. We study regression from images to parameter values and here it is common to detect uncertainty by predicting probability distributions. In this context, we investigate the regression-by-classification paradigm which can represent multimodal distributions, without a prior assumption on the number of modes. Through experiments on a specifically designed synthetic dataset, we demonstrate that traditional loss functions lead to poor probability distribution estimates and severe overconfidence, in the absence of full ground truth distributions. In order to alleviate these issues, we propose hinge-Wasserstein -- a simple improvement of the Wasserstein loss that reduces the penalty for weak secondary modes during training. This enables prediction of complex distributions with multiple modes, and allows training on datasets where full ground truth distributions are not available. In extensive experiments, we show that the proposed loss leads to substantially better uncertainty estimation on two challenging computer vision tasks: horizon line detection and stereo disparity estimation.

Sequential Monte Carlo methods can characterize arbitrary distributions using sequential importance sampling and resampling, but typically require very large sample sizes to mitigate weight collapse [Snyder et al., 2008, 2015]. By contrast, ensemble Kalman-type methods avoid the use of weights, but are based on affine prior-to-posterior updates that are consistent only if all distributions involved are Gaussian. In the context of smoothing, such methods include the ensemble Kalman smoother (EnKS) [Evensen and Van Leeuwen, 2000], which has inspired numerous algorithmic variations such as the ensemble smoother with multiple data assimilation [Emerick and Reynolds, 2013] and the iterative ensemble Kalman smoother (iEnKS) [Bocquet and Sakov, 2014, Evensen et al., 2019], as well as backwards smoothers such as the ensemble Rauch-Tung-Striebel smoother (EnRTSS) [Raanes, 2016]. These two classes of methods occupy opposite ends of a spectrum that ranges from an emphasis on statistical generality at one end to an emphasis on computational efficiency at the other. This trade-off complicates design decisions for smoothing problems that are at once non-Gaussian and computationally expensive.

Influencer marketing has become a very popular tool to reach customers. Despite the rapid growth in influencer videos, there has been little research on the effectiveness of their constituent features in explaining video engagement. We study YouTube influencers and analyze their unstructured video data across text, audio and images using an "interpretable deep learning" framework that accomplishes both goals of prediction and interpretation. Our prediction-based approach analyzes unstructured data and finds that "what is said" in words (text) is more influential than "how it is said" in imagery (images) or acoustics (audio). Our novel interpretation-based approach is implemented after completion of model prediction by analyzing the same source of unstructured data to measure importance attributed to the video features. We eliminate several spurious relationships in two steps, identifying a subset of relationships which are confirmed using theory. We uncover novel findings that establish distinct associations for measures of shallow and deep engagement based on the dual-system framework of human thinking. Our approach is validated using simulated data, and we discuss the learnings from our findings for influencers and brands.

The concept of creating a virtual copy of a complete Cyber-Physical System opens up numerous possibilities, including real-time assessments of the physical environment and continuous learning from the system to provide reliable and precise information. This process, known as the twinning process or the development of a digital twin (DT), has been widely adopted across various industries. However, challenges arise when considering the computational demands of implementing AI models, such as those employed in digital twins, in real-time information exchange scenarios. This work proposes a digital twin framework for optimal and autonomous decision-making applied to a gas-lift process in the oil and gas industry, focusing on enhancing the robustness and adaptability of the DT. The framework combines Bayesian inference, Monte Carlo simulations, transfer learning, online learning, and novel strategies to confer cognition to the DT, including model hyperdimensional reduction and cognitive tack. Consequently, creating a framework for efficient, reliable, and trustworthy DT identification was possible. The proposed approach addresses the current gap in the literature regarding integrating various learning techniques and uncertainty management in digital twin strategies. This digital twin framework aims to provide a reliable and efficient system capable of adapting to changing environments and incorporating prediction uncertainty, thus enhancing the overall decision-making process in complex, real-world scenarios. Additionally, this work lays the foundation for further developments in digital twins for process systems engineering, potentially fostering new advancements and applications across various industrial sectors.

In an era of increasing pressure to achieve sustainable agriculture, the optimization of livestock feed for enhancing yield and minimizing environmental impact is a paramount objective. This study presents a pioneering approach towards this goal, using rumen microbiome data to predict the efficacy of feed additives in dairy cattle. We collected an extensive dataset that includes methane emissions from 2,190 Holstein cows distributed across 34 distinct sites. The cows were divided into control and experimental groups in a double-blind, unbiased manner, accounting for variables such as age, days in lactation, and average milk yield. The experimental groups were administered one of four leading commercial feed additives: Agolin, Kexxtone, Allimax, and Relyon. Methane emissions were measured individually both before the administration of additives and over a subsequent 12-week period. To develop our predictive model for additive efficacy, rumen microbiome samples were collected from 510 cows from the same herds prior to the study's onset. These samples underwent deep metagenomic shotgun sequencing, yielding an average of 15.7 million reads per sample. Utilizing innovative artificial intelligence techniques we successfully estimated the efficacy of these feed additives across different farms. The model's robustness was further confirmed through validation with independent cohorts, affirming its generalizability and reliability. Our results underscore the transformative capability of using targeted feed additive strategies to both optimize dairy yield and milk composition, and to significantly reduce methane emissions. Specifically, our predictive model demonstrates a scenario where its application could guide the assignment of additives to farms where they are most effective. In doing so, we could achieve an average potential reduction of over 27\% in overall emissions.

We introduce a new Langevin dynamics based algorithm, called e-TH$\varepsilon$O POULA, to solve optimization problems with discontinuous stochastic gradients which naturally appear in real-world applications such as quantile estimation, vector quantization, CVaR minimization, and regularized optimization problems involving ReLU neural networks. We demonstrate both theoretically and numerically the applicability of the e-TH$\varepsilon$O POULA algorithm. More precisely, under the conditions that the stochastic gradient is locally Lipschitz in average and satisfies a certain convexity at infinity condition, we establish non-asymptotic error bounds for e-TH$\varepsilon$O POULA in Wasserstein distances and provide a non-asymptotic estimate for the expected excess risk, which can be controlled to be arbitrarily small. Three key applications in finance and insurance are provided, namely, multi-period portfolio optimization, transfer learning in multi-period portfolio optimization, and insurance claim prediction, which involve neural networks with (Leaky)-ReLU activation functions. Numerical experiments conducted using real-world datasets illustrate the superior empirical performance of e-TH$\varepsilon$O POULA compared to SGLD, TUSLA, ADAM, and AMSGrad in terms of model accuracy.

Feedforward generalizable models for implicit shape reconstruction from unoriented point cloud present multiple advantages, including high performance and inference speed. However, they still suffer from generalization issues, ranging from underfitting the input point cloud, to misrepresenting samples outside of the training data distribution, or with toplogies unseen at training. We propose here an efficient mechanism to remedy some of these limitations at test time. We combine the inter-shape data prior of the network with an intra-shape regularization prior of a Nystr\"om Kernel Ridge Regression, that we further adapt by fitting its hyperprameters to the current shape. The resulting shape function defined in a shape specific Reproducing Kernel Hilbert Space benefits from desirable stability and efficiency properties and grants a shape adaptive expressiveness-robustness trade-off. We demonstrate the improvement obtained through our method with respect to baselines and the state-of-the-art using synthetic and real data.

Heterogeneous unsupervised domain adaptation (HUDA) is the most challenging domain adaptation setting where the feature spaces of source and target domains are heterogeneous, and the target domain has only unlabeled data. Existing HUDA methods assume that both positive and negative examples are available in the source domain, which may not be satisfied in some real applications. This paper addresses a new challenging setting called positive and unlabeled heterogeneous unsupervised domain adaptation (PU-HUDA), a HUDA setting where the source domain only has positives. PU-HUDA can also be viewed as an extension of PU learning where the positive and unlabeled examples are sampled from different domains. A naive combination of existing HUDA and PU learning methods is ineffective in PU-HUDA due to the gap in label distribution between the source and target domains. To overcome this issue, we propose a novel method, predictive adversarial domain adaptation (PADA), which can predict likely positive examples from the unlabeled target data and simultaneously align the feature spaces to reduce the distribution divergence between the whole source data and the likely positive target data. PADA achieves this by a unified adversarial training framework for learning a classifier to predict positive examples and a feature transformer to transform the target feature space to that of the source. Specifically, they are both trained to fool a common discriminator that determines whether the likely positive examples are from the target or source domain. We experimentally show that PADA outperforms several baseline methods, such as the naive combination of HUDA and PU learning.

Understanding material surfaces and interfaces is vital in applications like catalysis or electronics. By combining energies from electronic structure with statistical mechanics, ab initio simulations can in principle predict the structure of material surfaces as a function of thermodynamic variables. However, accurate energy simulations are prohibitive when coupled to the vast phase space that must be statistically sampled. Here, we present a bi-faceted computational loop to predict surface phase diagrams of multi-component materials that accelerates both the energy scoring and statistical sampling methods. Fast, scalable, and data-efficient machine learning interatomic potentials are trained on high-throughput density-functional theory calculations through closed-loop active learning. Markov-chain Monte Carlo sampling in the semi-grand canonical ensemble is enabled by using virtual surface sites. The predicted surfaces for GaN(0001), Si(111), and SrTiO3(001) are in agreement with past work and suggest that the proposed strategy can model complex material surfaces and discover previously unreported surface terminations.

The need for grounding in language understanding is an active research topic. Previous work has suggested that color perception and color language appear as a suitable test bed to empirically study the problem, given its cognitive significance and showing that there is considerable alignment between a defined color space and the feature space defined by a language model. To further study this issue, we collect a large scale source of colors and their descriptions, containing almost a 1 million examples , and perform an empirical analysis to compare two kinds of alignments: (i) inter-space, by learning a mapping between embedding space and color space, and (ii) intra-space, by means of prompting comparatives between color descriptions. Our results show that while color space alignment holds for monolexemic, highly pragmatic color descriptions, this alignment drops considerably in the presence of examples that exhibit elements of real linguistic usage such as subjectivity and abstractedness, suggesting that grounding may be required in such cases.