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 Statistical Learning


Business Policy Experiments using Fractional Factorial Designs: Consumer Retention on DoorDash

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

This paper investigates an approach to both speed up business decision-making and lower the cost of learning through experimentation by factorizing business policies and employing fractional factorial experimental designs for their evaluation. We illustrate how this method integrates with advances in the estimation of heterogeneous treatment effects, elaborating on its advantages and foundational assumptions. We empirically demonstrate the implementation and benefits of our approach and assess its validity in evaluating consumer promotion policies at DoorDash, which is one of the largest delivery platforms in the US. Our approach discovers a policy with 5% incremental profit at 67% lower implementation cost.


Using Stochastic Gradient Descent to Smooth Nonconvex Functions: Analysis of Implicit Graduated Optimization with Optimal Noise Scheduling

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

The graduated optimization approach is a heuristic method for finding globally optimal solutions for nonconvex functions and has been theoretically analyzed in several studies. This paper defines a new family of nonconvex functions for graduated optimization, discusses their sufficient conditions, and provides a convergence analysis of the graduated optimization algorithm for them. It shows that stochastic gradient descent (SGD) with mini-batch stochastic gradients has the effect of smoothing the function, the degree of which is determined by the learning rate and batch size. This finding provides theoretical insights on why large batch sizes fall into sharp local minima, why decaying learning rates and increasing batch sizes are superior to fixed learning rates and batch sizes, and what the optimal learning rate scheduling is. To the best of our knowledge, this is the first paper to provide a theoretical explanation for these aspects. Moreover, a new graduated optimization framework that uses a decaying learning rate and increasing batch size is analyzed and experimental results of image classification that support our theoretical findings are reported.


Understanding the robustness difference between stochastic gradient descent and adaptive gradient methods

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Stochastic gradient descent (SGD) and adaptive gradient methods, such as Adam and RMSProp, have been widely used in training deep neural networks. We empirically show that while the difference between the standard generalization performance of models trained using these methods is small, those trained using SGD exhibit far greater robustness under input perturbations. Notably, our investigation demonstrates the presence of irrelevant frequencies in natural datasets, where alterations do not affect models' generalization performance. However, models trained with adaptive methods show sensitivity to these changes, suggesting that their use of irrelevant frequencies can lead to solutions sensitive to perturbations. To better understand this difference, we study the learning dynamics of gradient descent (GD) and sign gradient descent (signGD) on a synthetic dataset that mirrors natural signals. With a three-dimensional input space, the models optimized with GD and signGD have standard risks close to zero but vary in their adversarial risks. Our result shows that linear models' robustness to $\ell_2$-norm bounded changes is inversely proportional to the model parameters' weight norm: a smaller weight norm implies better robustness. In the context of deep learning, our experiments show that SGD-trained neural networks have smaller Lipschitz constants, explaining the better robustness to input perturbations than those trained with adaptive gradient methods.


No Representation Rules Them All in Category Discovery

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

In this paper we tackle the problem of Generalized Category Discovery (GCD). Specifically, given a dataset with labelled and unlabelled images, the task is to cluster all images in the unlabelled subset, whether or not they belong to the labelled categories. Our first contribution is to recognize that most existing GCD benchmarks only contain labels for a single clustering of the data, making it difficult to ascertain whether models are using the available labels to solve the GCD task, or simply solving an unsupervised clustering problem. As such, we present a synthetic dataset, named 'Clevr-4', for category discovery. Clevr-4 contains four equally valid partitions of the data, i.e based on object shape, texture, color or count. To solve the task, models are required to extrapolate the taxonomy specified by the labelled set, rather than simply latching onto a single natural grouping of the data. We use this dataset to demonstrate the limitations of unsupervised clustering in the GCD setting, showing that even very strong unsupervised models fail on Clevr-4. We further use Clevr-4 to examine the weaknesses of existing GCD algorithms, and propose a new method which addresses these shortcomings, leveraging consistent findings from the representation learning literature to do so. Our simple solution, which is based on 'mean teachers' and termed $\mu$GCD, substantially outperforms implemented baselines on Clevr-4. Finally, when we transfer these findings to real data on the challenging Semantic Shift Benchmark (SSB), we find that $\mu$GCD outperforms all prior work, setting a new state-of-the-art. For the project webpage, see https://www.robots.ox.ac.uk/~vgg/data/clevr4/


DiffuseBot: Breeding Soft Robots With Physics-Augmented Generative Diffusion Models

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Nature evolves creatures with a high complexity of morphological and behavioral intelligence, meanwhile computational methods lag in approaching that diversity and efficacy. Co-optimization of artificial creatures' morphology and control in silico shows promise for applications in physical soft robotics and virtual character creation; such approaches, however, require developing new learning algorithms that can reason about function atop pure structure. In this paper, we present DiffuseBot, a physics-augmented diffusion model that generates soft robot morphologies capable of excelling in a wide spectrum of tasks. DiffuseBot bridges the gap between virtually generated content and physical utility by (i) augmenting the diffusion process with a physical dynamical simulation which provides a certificate of performance, and (ii) introducing a co-design procedure that jointly optimizes physical design and control by leveraging information about physical sensitivities from differentiable simulation. We showcase a range of simulated and fabricated robots along with their capabilities. Check our website at https://diffusebot.github.io/


Adaptive Step Sizes for Preconditioned Stochastic Gradient Descent

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

This paper proposes a novel approach to adaptive step sizes in stochastic gradient descent (SGD) by utilizing quantities that we have identified as numerically traceable -- the Lipschitz constant for gradients and a concept of the local variance in search directions. Our findings yield a nearly hyperparameter-free algorithm for stochastic optimization, which has provable convergence properties when applied to quadratic problems and exhibits truly problem adaptive behavior on classical image classification tasks. Our framework enables the potential inclusion of a preconditioner, thereby enabling the implementation of adaptive step sizes for stochastic second-order optimization methods.


Dendrogram distance: an evaluation metric for generative networks using hierarchical clustering

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Generative modeling is a task that aims to estimate the generation process of a given source dataset. Models obtained as a result of this approach can be used to sample novel data points that follow the distribution of the source training set, allowing for different applications in machine learning. Performing generative modeling using neural networks has become very popular mainly because of the success of Generative Adversarial Networks (GANs) (Goodfellow et al., 2014) and later with Diffusion models (Luo, 2022). The GAN framework relies on two different networks, a generator and a discriminator, that compete against their selves to perform the generative task, as shown in Figure 1. Figure 1: Diagram that illustrates the different components of GAN. The generator network G transforms a random input z into samples that should be realistic, while the discriminator network D tells apart which samples came from the training data.


Edge AI for Internet of Energy: Challenges and Perspectives

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

The digital landscape of the Internet of Energy (IoE) is on the brink of a revolutionary transformation with the integration of edge Artificial Intelligence (AI). This comprehensive review elucidates the promise and potential that edge AI holds for reshaping the IoE ecosystem. Commencing with a meticulously curated research methodology, the article delves into the myriad of edge AI techniques specifically tailored for IoE. The myriad benefits, spanning from reduced latency and real-time analytics to the pivotal aspects of information security, scalability, and cost-efficiency, underscore the indispensability of edge AI in modern IoE frameworks. As the narrative progresses, readers are acquainted with pragmatic applications and techniques, highlighting on-device computation, secure private inference methods, and the avant-garde paradigms of AI training on the edge. A critical analysis follows, offering a deep dive into the present challenges including security concerns, computational hurdles, and standardization issues. However, as the horizon of technology ever expands, the review culminates in a forward-looking perspective, envisaging the future symbiosis of 5G networks, federated edge AI, deep reinforcement learning, and more, painting a vibrant panorama of what the future beholds. For anyone vested in the domains of IoE and AI, this review offers both a foundation and a visionary lens, bridging the present realities with future possibilities.


Rescuing referral failures during automated diagnosis of domain-shifted medical images

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

The success of deep learning models deployed in the real world depends critically on their ability to generalize well across diverse data domains. Here, we address a fundamental challenge with selective classification during automated diagnosis with domain-shifted medical images. In this scenario, models must learn to avoid making predictions when label confidence is low, especially when tested with samples far removed from the training set (covariate shift). Such uncertain cases are typically referred to the clinician for further analysis and evaluation. Yet, we show that even state-of-the-art domain generalization approaches fail severely during referral when tested on medical images acquired from a different demographic or using a different technology. We examine two benchmark diagnostic medical imaging datasets exhibiting strong covariate shifts: i) diabetic retinopathy prediction with retinal fundus images and ii) multilabel disease prediction with chest X-ray images. We show that predictive uncertainty estimates do not generalize well under covariate shifts leading to non-monotonic referral curves, and severe drops in performance (up to 50%) at high referral rates (>70%). We evaluate novel combinations of robust generalization and post hoc referral approaches, that rescue these failures and achieve significant performance improvements, typically >10%, over baseline methods. Our study identifies a critical challenge with referral in domain-shifted medical images and finds key applications in reliable, automated disease diagnosis.


Radiology-Aware Model-Based Evaluation Metric for Report Generation

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

We propose a new automated evaluation metric for machine-generated radiology reports using the successful COMET architecture adapted for the radiology domain. We train and publish four medically-oriented model checkpoints, including one trained on RadGraph, a radiology knowledge graph. Our results show that our metric correlates moderately to high with established metrics such as BERTscore, BLEU, and CheXbert scores. Furthermore, we demonstrate that one of our checkpoints exhibits a high correlation with human judgment, as assessed using the publicly available annotations of six board-certified radiologists, using a set of 200 reports. We also performed our own analysis gathering annotations with two radiologists on a collection of 100 reports. The results indicate the potential effectiveness of our method as a radiology-specific evaluation metric. The code, data, and model checkpoints to reproduce our findings will be publicly available.