Visual quality measures (VQMs) are designed to support analysts by automatically detecting and quantifying patterns in visualizations. We propose a new VQM for visual grouping patterns in scatterplots, called ClustML, which is trained on previously collected human subject judgments. Our model encodes scatterplots in the parametric space of a Gaussian Mixture Model and uses a classifier trained on human judgment data to estimate the perceptual complexity of grouping patterns. The numbers of initial mixture components and final combined groups. It improves on existing VQMs, first, by better estimating human judgments on two-Gaussian cluster patterns and, second, by giving higher accuracy when ranking general cluster patterns in scatterplots. We use it to analyze kinship data for genome-wide association studies, in which experts rely on the visual analysis of large sets of scatterplots. We make the benchmark datasets and the new VQM available for practical use and further improvements.

Work on personality detection has tended to incorporate psychological features from different personality models, such as BigFive and MBTI. There are more than 900 psychological features, each of which is helpful for personality detection. However, when used in combination, the application of different calculation standards among these features may result in interference between features calculated using distinct systems, thereby introducing noise and reducing performance. This paper adapts different psychological models in the proposed PsyAttention for personality detection, which can effectively encode psychological features, reducing their number by 85%. In experiments on the BigFive and MBTI models, PysAttention achieved average accuracy of 65.66% and 86.30%, respectively, outperforming state-of-the-art methods, indicating that it is effective at encoding psychological features.

Next-generation radio interferometers like the Square Kilometer Array have the potential to unlock scientific discoveries thanks to their unprecedented angular resolution and sensitivity. One key to unlocking their potential resides in handling the deluge and complexity of incoming data. This challenge requires building radio interferometric imaging methods that can cope with the massive data sizes and provide high-quality image reconstructions with uncertainty quantification (UQ). This work proposes a method coined QuantifAI to address UQ in radio-interferometric imaging with data-driven (learned) priors for high-dimensional settings. Our model, rooted in the Bayesian framework, uses a physically motivated model for the likelihood. The model exploits a data-driven convex prior, which can encode complex information learned implicitly from simulations and guarantee the log-concavity of the posterior. We leverage probability concentration phenomena of high-dimensional log-concave posteriors that let us obtain information about the posterior, avoiding MCMC sampling techniques. We rely on convex optimisation methods to compute the MAP estimation, which is known to be faster and better scale with dimension than MCMC sampling strategies. Our method allows us to compute local credible intervals, i.e., Bayesian error bars, and perform hypothesis testing of structure on the reconstructed image. In addition, we propose a novel blazing-fast method to compute pixel-wise uncertainties at different scales. We demonstrate our method by reconstructing radio-interferometric images in a simulated setting and carrying out fast and scalable UQ, which we validate with MCMC sampling. Our method shows an improved image quality and more meaningful uncertainties than the benchmark method based on a sparsity-promoting prior. QuantifAI's source code: https://github.com/astro-informatics/QuantifAI.

Accurate forecasts for day-ahead photovoltaic (PV) power generation are crucial to support a high PV penetration rate in the local electricity grid and to assure stability in the grid. We use state-of-the-art tree-based machine learning methods to produce such forecasts and, unlike previous studies, we hereby account for (i) the effects various meteorological as well as astronomical features have on PV power production, and this (ii) at coarse as well as granular spatial locations. To this end, we use data from Belgium and forecast day-ahead PV power production at an hourly resolution. The insights from our study can assist utilities, decision-makers, and other stakeholders in optimizing grid operations, economic dispatch, and in facilitating the integration of distributed PV power into the electricity grid.

Temporal sentence grounding aims to localize moments relevant to a language description. Recently, DETR-like approaches have shown notable progress by decoding the center and length of a target moment from learnable queries. However, they suffer from the issue of center misalignment raised by the inherent ambiguity of moment centers, leading to inaccurate predictions. To remedy this problem, we introduce a novel boundary-oriented moment formulation. In our paradigm, the model no longer needs to find the precise center but instead suffices to predict any anchor point within the interval, from which the onset and offset are directly estimated. Based on this idea, we design a Boundary-Aligned Moment Detection Transformer (BAM-DETR), equipped with a dual-pathway decoding process. Specifically, it refines the anchor and boundaries within parallel pathways using global and boundary-focused attention, respectively. This separate design allows the model to focus on desirable regions, enabling precise refinement of moment predictions. Further, we propose a quality-based ranking method, ensuring that proposals with high localization qualities are prioritized over incomplete ones. Extensive experiments verify the advantages of our methods, where our model records new state-of-the-art results on three benchmarks. Code is at https://github.com/Pilhyeon/BAM-DETR.

We have developed a new framework using time-series analysis for dynamically assigning mobile network traffic prediction models in previously unseen wireless environments. Our framework selectively employs learned behaviors, outperforming any single model with over a 50% improvement relative to current studies. More importantly, it surpasses traditional approaches without needing prior knowledge of a cell. While this paper focuses on network traffic prediction using our adaptive forecasting framework, this framework can also be applied to other machine learning applications in uncertain environments. The framework begins with unsupervised clustering of time-series data to identify unique trends and seasonal patterns. Subsequently, we apply supervised learning for traffic volume prediction within each cluster. This specialization towards specific traffic behaviors occurs without penalties from spatial and temporal variations. Finally, the framework adaptively assigns trained models to new, previously unseen cells. By analyzing real-time measurements of a cell, our framework intelligently selects the most suitable cluster for that cell at any given time, with cluster assignment dynamically adjusting to spatio-temporal fluctuations.

Recent work by Power et al. (2022) highlighted a surprising "grokking" phenomenon in learning arithmetic tasks: a neural net first "memorizes" the training set, resulting in perfect training accuracy but near-random test accuracy, and after training for sufficiently longer, it suddenly transitions to perfect test accuracy. This paper studies the grokking phenomenon in theoretical setups and shows that it can be induced by a dichotomy of early and late phase implicit biases. Specifically, when training homogeneous neural nets with large initialization and small weight decay on both classification and regression tasks, we prove that the training process gets trapped at a solution corresponding to a kernel predictor for a long time, and then a very sharp transition to min-norm/max-margin predictors occurs, leading to a dramatic change in test accuracy. The generalization behavior of modern over-parameterized neural nets has been puzzling: these nets have the capacity to overfit the training set, and yet they frequently exhibit a small gap between training and test performance when trained by popular gradient-based optimizers. A common view now is that the network architectures and training pipelines can automatically induce regularization effects to avoid or mitigate overfitting throughout the training trajectory. Recently, Power et al. (2022) discovered an even more perplexing generalization phenomenon called grokking: when training a neural net to learn modular arithmetic operations, it first "memorizes" the training set with zero training error and near-random test error, and then training for much longer leads to a sharp transition from no generalization to perfect generalization. See Section 2 for our reproduction of this phenomenon. Beyond modular arithmetic, grokking has been reported in learning group operations (Chughtai et al., 2023), learning sparse parity (Barak et al., 2022; Bhattamishra et al., 2022), learning greatest common divisor (Charton, 2023), and image classification (Liu et al., 2023; Radhakrishnan et al., 2022).

Several scientific communities are currently facing a replication crisis, wherein it has proven difficult or impossible for researchers to independently verify the results of previously published studies. Failures to replicate large swaths of experimental work (Camerer et al., 2018; Nosek et al., 2015; Begley and Ellis, 2012; Baker, 2016) have come in fields like psychology or medicine, that focus on what Hofman et al. (2021) call explanatory modeling, where the goal is to identify and estimate causal effects (e.g., is there an effect of X on Y, and if so, how large is it?). While there are many different factors that can contribute to unreliable findings in explanatory modeling, the combination of small-scale experiments involving noisy measurements and the (mis)use of null hypothesis significance testing (NHST) has received a great deal of attention in recent years. Under these conditions, researchers can mistake idiosyncratic patterns in noise for true effects, resulting in unreliable findings that do not replicate upon further investigation (Button et al., 2013; Loken and Gelman, 2017; Meehl, 1990; Simmons et al., 2011). More generally, some forms of data-dependent decision making (e.g., about how to define research questions or hypotheses, how to filter or transform data, how to model data, what tests to run, etc.) can lead to similar problems regardless of the specifics of the methods (Gelman and Loken, 2013). What about other fields, such as machine learning and data science, that focus less on explanation and more on predictive modeling, defined in Hofman et al. (2021) as directly forecasting outcomes (e.g., how well can an outcome Y be predicted using all available features X?) without necessarily focusing on isolating individual causal effects? Predictive modeling is typically done by testing (out-of-sample) predictions on large-scale datasets, and hence--unlike explanatory modeling--involves neither small experiments nor misuse of significance testing. With advances in the fields of statistics and machine learning (ML) we have seen remarkable performance gains in predictive modeling over the last decade, for both traditional ML tasks and for scientific applications. The same methods that have been shown to achieve at or above human-level performance on tasks like playing chess, classifying images, or understanding natural language (Zhang et al.,

Congenital heart disease (CHD) is the most common birth defect and the leading cause of neonate death in China. Clinical diagnosis can be based on the selected 2D key-frames from five views. Limited by the availability of multi-view data, most methods have to rely on the insufficient single view analysis. This study proposes to automatically analyze the multi-view echocardiograms with a practical end-to-end framework. We collect the five-view echocardiograms video records of 1308 subjects (including normal controls, ventricular septal defect (VSD) patients and atrial septal defect (ASD) patients) with both disease labels and standard-view key-frame labels. Depthwise separable convolution-based multi-channel networks are adopted to largely reduce the network parameters. We also approach the imbalanced class problem by augmenting the positive training samples. Our 2D key-frame model can diagnose CHD or negative samples with an accuracy of 95.4\%, and in negative, VSD or ASD classification with an accuracy of 92.3\%. To further alleviate the work of key-frame selection in real-world implementation, we propose an adaptive soft attention scheme to directly explore the raw video data. Four kinds of neural aggregation methods are systematically investigated to fuse the information of an arbitrary number of frames in a video. Moreover, with a view detection module, the system can work without the view records. Our video-based model can diagnose with an accuracy of 93.9\% (binary classification), and 92.1\% (3-class classification) in a collected 2D video testing set, which does not need key-frame selection and view annotation in testing. The detailed ablation study and the interpretability analysis are provided.

This paper proposes an interpretable two-stream transformer CORAL networks (TransCORALNet) for supply chain credit assessment under the segment industry and cold start problem. The model aims to provide accurate credit assessment prediction for new supply chain borrowers with limited historical data. Here, the two-stream domain adaptation architecture with correlation alignment (CORAL) loss is used as a core model and is equipped with transformer, which provides insights about the learned features and allow efficient parallelization during training. Thanks to the domain adaptation capability of the proposed model, the domain shift between the source and target domain is minimized. Therefore, the model exhibits good generalization where the source and target do not follow the same distribution, and a limited amount of target labeled instances exist. Furthermore, we employ Local Interpretable Model-agnostic Explanations (LIME) to provide more insight into the model prediction and identify the key features contributing to supply chain credit assessment decisions. The proposed model addresses four significant supply chain credit assessment challenges: domain shift, cold start, imbalanced-class and interpretability. Experimental results on a real-world data set demonstrate the superiority of TransCORALNet over a number of state-of-the-art baselines in terms of accuracy. The code is available on GitHub https://github.com/JieJieNiu/TransCORALN .