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 Statistical Learning


Active Learning for Abrupt Shifts Change-point Detection via Derivative-Aware Gaussian Processes

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Change-point detection (CPD) is crucial for identifying abrupt shifts in data, which influence decision-making and efficient resource allocation across various domains. To address the challenges posed by the costly and time-intensive data acquisition in CPD, we introduce the Derivative-Aware Change Detection (DACD) method. It leverages the derivative process of a Gaussian process (GP) for Active Learning (AL), aiming to pinpoint change-point locations effectively. DACD balances the exploitation and exploration of derivative processes through multiple data acquisition functions (AFs). By utilizing GP derivative mean and variance as criteria, DACD sequentially selects the next sampling data point, thus enhancing algorithmic efficiency and ensuring reliable and accurate results. We investigate the effectiveness of DACD method in diverse scenarios and show it outperforms other active learning change-point detection approaches.


TSVR+: Twin support vector regression with privileged information

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

In the realm of machine learning, the data may contain additional attributes, known as privileged information (PI). The main purpose of PI is to assist in the training of the model and then utilize the acquired knowledge to make predictions for unseen samples. Support vector regression (SVR) is an effective regression model, however, it has a low learning speed due to solving a convex quadratic problem (QP) subject to a pair of constraints. In contrast, twin support vector regression (TSVR) is more efficient than SVR as it solves two QPs each subject to one set of constraints. However, TSVR and its variants are trained only on regular features and do not use privileged features for training. To fill this gap, we introduce a fusion of TSVR with learning using privileged information (LUPI) and propose a novel approach called twin support vector regression with privileged information (TSVR+). The regularization terms in the proposed TSVR+ capture the essence of statistical learning theory and implement the structural risk minimization principle. We use the successive overrelaxation (SOR) technique to solve the optimization problem of the proposed TSVR+, which enhances the training efficiency. As far as our knowledge extends, the integration of the LUPI concept into twin variants of regression models is a novel advancement. The numerical experiments conducted on UCI, stock and time series data collectively demonstrate the superiority of the proposed model.


Estimation of Physical Parameters of Waveforms With Neural Networks

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Light Detection and Ranging (LiDAR) are fast emerging sensors in the field of Earth Observation. It is a remote sensing technology that utilizes laser beams to measure distances and create detailed three-dimensional representations of objects and environments. The potential of Full Waveform LiDAR is much greater than just height estimation and 3D reconstruction only. Overall shape of signal provides important information about properties of water body. However, the shape of FWL is unexplored as most LiDAR software work on point cloud by utilizing the maximum value within the waveform. Existing techniques in the field of LiDAR data analysis include depth estimation through inverse modeling and regression of logarithmic intensity and depth for approximating the attenuation coefficient. However, these methods suffer from limitations in accuracy. Depth estimation through inverse modeling provides only approximate values and does not account for variations in surface properties, while the regression approach for the attenuation coefficient is only able to generalize a value through several data points which lacks precision and may lead to significant errors in estimation. Additionally, there is currently no established modeling method available for predicting bottom reflectance. This research proposed a novel solution based on neural networks for parameter estimation in LIDAR data analysis. By leveraging the power of neural networks, the proposed solution successfully learned the inversion model, was able to do prediction of parameters such as depth, attenuation coefficient, and bottom reflectance. Performance of model was validated by testing it on real LiDAR data. In future, more data availability would enable more accuracy and reliability of such models.


Neural parameter calibration and uncertainty quantification for epidemic forecasting

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

The recent COVID-19 pandemic has thrown the importance of accurately forecasting contagion dynamics and learning infection parameters into sharp focus. At the same time, effective policy-making requires knowledge of the uncertainty on such predictions, in order, for instance, to be able to ready hospitals and intensive care units for a worst-case scenario without needlessly wasting resources. In this work, we apply a novel and powerful computational method to the problem of learning probability densities on contagion parameters and providing uncertainty quantification for pandemic projections. Using a neural network, we calibrate an ODE model to data of the spread of COVID-19 in Berlin in 2020, achieving both a significantly more accurate calibration and prediction than Markov-Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC)-based sampling schemes. The uncertainties on our predictions provide meaningful confidence intervals e.g. on infection figures and hospitalisation rates, while training and running the neural scheme takes minutes where MCMC takes hours. We show convergence of our method to the true posterior on a simplified SIR model of epidemics, and also demonstrate our method's learning capabilities on a reduced dataset, where a complex model is learned from a small number of compartments for which data is available.


Toward Energy-Efficient Massive MIMO: Graph Neural Network Precoding for Mitigating Non-Linear PA Distortion

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Massive MIMO systems are typically designed assuming linear power amplifiers (PAs). However, PAs are most energy efficient close to saturation, where non-linear distortion arises. For conventional precoders, this distortion can coherently combine at user locations, limiting performance. We propose a graph neural network (GNN) to learn a mapping between channel and precoding matrices, which maximizes the sum rate affected by non-linear distortion, using a high-order polynomial PA model. In the distortion-limited regime, this GNN-based precoder outperforms zero forcing (ZF), ZF plus digital pre-distortion (DPD) and the distortion-aware beamforming (DAB) precoder from the state-of-the-art. At an input back-off of -3 dB the proposed precoder compared to ZF increases the sum rate by 8.60 and 8.84 bits/channel use for two and four users respectively. Radiation patterns show that these gains are achieved by transmitting the non-linear distortion in non-user directions. In the four user-case, for a fixed sum rate, the total consumed power (PA and processing) of the GNN precoder is 3.24 and 1.44 times lower compared to ZF and ZF plus DPD respectively. A complexity analysis shows six orders of magnitude reduction compared to DAB precoding. This opens perspectives to operate PAs closer to saturation, which drastically increases their energy efficiency.


Unknown Sample Discovery for Source Free Open Set Domain Adaptation

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Open Set Domain Adaptation (OSDA) aims to adapt a model trained on a source domain to a target domain that undergoes distribution shift and contains samples from novel classes outside the source domain. Source-free OSDA (SF-OSDA) techniques eliminate the need to access source domain samples, but current SF-OSDA methods utilize only the known classes in the target domain for adaptation, and require access to the entire target domain even during inference after adaptation, to make the distinction between known and unknown samples. In this paper, we introduce Unknown Sample Discovery (USD) as an SF-OSDA method that utilizes a temporally ensembled teacher model to conduct known-unknown target sample separation and adapts the student model to the target domain over all classes using co-training and temporal consistency between the teacher and the student. USD promotes Jensen-Shannon distance (JSD) as an effective measure for known-unknown sample separation. Our teacher-student framework significantly reduces error accumulation resulting from imperfect known-unknown sample separation, while curriculum guidance helps to reliably learn the distinction between target known and target unknown subspaces. USD appends the target model with an unknown class node, thus readily classifying a target sample into any of the known or unknown classes in subsequent post-adaptation inference stages. Empirical results show that USD is superior to existing SF-OSDA methods and is competitive with current OSDA models that utilize both source and target domains during adaptation.


f-FERM: A Scalable Framework for Robust Fair Empirical Risk Minimization

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Training and deploying machine learning models that meet fairness criteria for protected groups are fundamental in modern artificial intelligence. While numerous constraints and regularization terms have been proposed in the literature to promote fairness in machine learning tasks, most of these methods are not amenable to stochastic optimization due to the complex and nonlinear structure of constraints and regularizers. Here, the term "stochastic" refers to the ability of the algorithm to work with small mini-batches of data. Motivated by the limitation of existing literature, this paper presents a unified stochastic optimization framework for fair empirical risk minimization based on f-divergence measures (f-FERM). The proposed stochastic algorithm enjoys theoretical convergence guarantees. In addition, our experiments demonstrate the superiority of fairness-accuracy tradeoffs offered by f-FERM for almost all batch sizes (ranging from full-batch to batch size of one). Moreover, we show that our framework can be extended to the case where there is a distribution shift from training to the test data. Our extension is based on a distributionally robust optimization reformulation of f-FERM objective under $L_p$ norms as uncertainty sets. Again, in this distributionally robust setting, f-FERM not only enjoys theoretical convergence guarantees but also outperforms other baselines in the literature in the tasks involving distribution shifts. An efficient stochastic implementation of $f$-FERM is publicly available.


Corporate Bankruptcy Prediction with Domain-Adapted BERT

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

This study performs BERT-based analysis, which is a representative contextualized language model, on corporate disclosure data to predict impending bankruptcies. Prior literature on bankruptcy prediction mainly focuses on developing more sophisticated prediction methodologies with financial variables. However, in our study, we focus on improving the quality of input dataset. Specifically, we employ BERT model to perform sentiment analysis on MD&A disclosures. We show that BERT outperforms dictionary-based predictions and Word2Vec-based predictions in terms of adjusted R-square in logistic regression, k-nearest neighbor (kNN-5), and linear kernel support vector machine (SVM). Further, instead of pre-training the BERT model from scratch, we apply self-learning with confidence-based filtering to corporate disclosure data (10-K). We achieve the accuracy rate of 91.56% and demonstrate that the domain adaptation procedure brings a significant improvement in prediction accuracy.


Multitask Learning Can Improve Worst-Group Outcomes

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

In order to create machine learning systems that serve a variety of users well, it is vital to not only achieve high average performance but also ensure equitable outcomes across diverse groups. However, most machine learning methods are designed to improve a model's average performance on a chosen end task without consideration for their impact on worst group error. Multitask learning (MTL) is one such widely used technique. In this paper, we seek not only to understand the impact of MTL on worst-group accuracy but also to explore its potential as a tool to address the challenge of group-wise fairness. We primarily consider the common setting of fine-tuning a pre-trained model, where, following recent work (Gururangan et al., 2020; Dery et al., 2023), we multitask the end task with the pre-training objective constructed from the end task data itself. In settings with few or no group annotations, we find that multitasking often, but not always, achieves better worst-group accuracy than Just-Train-Twice (JTT; Liu et al. (2021)) -- a representative distributionally robust optimization (DRO) method. Leveraging insights from synthetic data experiments, we propose to modify standard MTL by regularizing the joint multitask representation space. We run a large number of fine-tuning experiments across computer vision and natural language and find that our regularized MTL approach consistently outperforms JTT on both worst and average group outcomes. Our official code can be found here: https://github.com/atharvajk98/MTL-group-robustness.


The Landscape of Modern Machine Learning: A Review of Machine, Distributed and Federated Learning

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

With the advance of the powerful heterogeneous, parallel and distributed computing systems and ever increasing immense amount of data, machine learning has become an indispensable part of cutting-edge technology, scientific research and consumer products. In this study, we present a review of modern machine and deep learning. We provide a high-level overview for the latest advanced machine learning algorithms, applications, and frameworks. Our discussion encompasses parallel distributed learning, deep learning as well as federated learning. As a result, our work serves as an introductory text to the vast field of modern machine learning.