The increasing interest in data sharing makes synthetic data appealing. However, the analysis of synthetic data raises a unique set of methodological challenges. In this work, we highlight the importance of inferential utility and provide empirical evidence against naive inference from synthetic data (that handles these as if they were really observed). We argue that the rate of false-positive findings (type 1 error) will be unacceptably high, even when the estimates are unbiased. One of the reasons is the underestimation of the true standard error, which may even progressively increase with larger sample sizes due to slower convergence. This is especially problematic for deep generative models. Before publishing synthetic data, it is essential to develop statistical inference tools for such data.

In this paper we introduce GP+, an open-source library for kernel-based learning via Gaussian processes (GPs) which are powerful statistical models that are completely characterized by their parametric covariance and mean functions. GP+ is built on PyTorch and provides a user-friendly and object-oriented tool for probabilistic learning and inference. As we demonstrate with a host of examples, GP+ has a few unique advantages over other GP modeling libraries. We achieve these advantages primarily by integrating nonlinear manifold learning techniques with GPs' covariance and mean functions. As part of introducing GP+, in this paper we also make methodological contributions that (1) enable probabilistic data fusion and inverse parameter estimation, and (2) equip GPs with parsimonious parametric mean functions which span mixed feature spaces that have both categorical and quantitative variables. We demonstrate the impact of these contributions in the context of Bayesian optimization, multi-fidelity modeling, sensitivity analysis, and calibration of computer models.

Recent advances in computational modelling of atomic systems, spanning molecules, proteins, and materials, represent them as geometric graphs with atoms embedded as nodes in 3D Euclidean space. In these graphs, the geometric attributes transform according to the inherent physical symmetries of 3D atomic systems, including rotations and translations in Euclidean space, as well as node permutations. In recent years, Geometric Graph Neural Networks have emerged as the preferred machine learning architecture powering applications ranging from protein structure prediction to molecular simulations and material generation. Their specificity lies in the inductive biases they leverage -- such as physical symmetries and chemical properties -- to learn informative representations of these geometric graphs. In this opinionated paper, we provide a comprehensive and self-contained overview of the field of Geometric GNNs for 3D atomic systems. We cover fundamental background material and introduce a pedagogical taxonomy of Geometric GNN architectures: (1) invariant networks, (2) equivariant networks in Cartesian basis, (3) equivariant networks in spherical basis, and (4) unconstrained networks. Additionally, we outline key datasets and application areas and suggest future research directions. The objective of this work is to present a structured perspective on the field, making it accessible to newcomers and aiding practitioners in gaining an intuition for its mathematical abstractions.

The multivariate generalized Gaussian distribution (MGGD), also known as the multivariate exponential power (MEP) distribution, is widely used in signal and image processing. However, estimating MGGD parameters, which is required in practical applications, still faces specific theoretical challenges. In particular, establishing convergence properties for the standard fixed-point approach when both the distribution mean and the scatter (or the precision) matrix are unknown is still an open problem. In robust estimation, imposing classical constraints on the precision matrix, such as sparsity, has been limited by the non-convexity of the resulting cost function. This paper tackles these issues from an optimization viewpoint by proposing a convex formulation with well-established convergence properties. We embed our analysis in a noisy scenario where robustness is induced by modelling multiplicative perturbations. The resulting framework is flexible as it combines a variety of regularizations for the precision matrix, the mean and model perturbations. This paper presents proof of the desired theoretical properties, specifies the conditions preserving these properties for different regularization choices and designs a general proximal primal-dual optimization strategy. The experiments show a more accurate precision and covariance matrix estimation with similar performance for the mean vector parameter compared to Tyler's M-estimator. In a high-dimensional setting, the proposed method outperforms the classical GLASSO, one of its robust extensions, and the regularized Tyler's estimator.

In domain adaptation, covariate shift and label shift problems are two distinct and complementary tasks. In covariate shift adaptation where the differences in data distribution arise from variations in feature probabilities, existing approaches naturally address this problem based on \textit{feature probability matching} (\textit{FPM}). However, for label shift adaptation where the differences in data distribution stem solely from variations in class probability, current methods still use FPM on the $d$-dimensional feature space to estimate the class probability ratio on the one-dimensional label space. To address label shift adaptation more naturally and effectively, inspired by a new representation of the source domain's class probability, we propose a new framework called \textit{class probability matching} (\textit{CPM}) which matches two class probability functions on the one-dimensional label space to estimate the class probability ratio, fundamentally different from FPM operating on the $d$-dimensional feature space. Furthermore, by incorporating the kernel logistic regression into the CPM framework to estimate the conditional probability, we propose an algorithm called \textit{class probability matching using kernel methods} (\textit{CPMKM}) for label shift adaptation. From the theoretical perspective, we establish the optimal convergence rates of CPMKM with respect to the cross-entropy loss for multi-class label shift adaptation. From the experimental perspective, comparisons on real datasets demonstrate that CPMKM outperforms existing FPM-based and maximum-likelihood-based algorithms.

In this paper, we provide novel tail bounds on the optimization error of Stochastic Mirror Descent for convex and Lipschitz objectives. Our analysis extends the existing tail bounds from the classical light-tailed Sub-Gaussian noise case to heavier-tailed noise regimes. We study the optimization error of the last iterate as well as the average of the iterates. We instantiate our results in two important cases: a class of noise with exponential tails and one with polynomial tails. A remarkable feature of our results is that they do not require an upper bound on the diameter of the domain. Finally, we support our theory with illustrative experiments that compare the behavior of the average of the iterates with that of the last iterate in heavy-tailed noise regimes.

In this paper, we study the mistake bound of online kernel learning on a budget. We propose a new budgeted online kernel learning model, called Ahpatron, which significantly improves the mistake bound of previous work and resolves the open problem posed by Dekel, Shalev-Shwartz, and Singer (2005). We first present an aggressive variant of Perceptron, named AVP, a model without budget, which uses an active updating rule. Then we design a new budget maintenance mechanism, which removes a half of examples,and projects the removed examples onto a hypothesis space spanned by the remaining examples. Ahpatron adopts the above mechanism to approximate AVP. Theoretical analyses prove that Ahpatron has tighter mistake bounds, and experimental results show that Ahpatron outperforms the state-of-the-art algorithms on the same or a smaller budget.

We consider the problem of learning a graph modeling the statistical relations of the $d$ variables from a dataset with $n$ samples $X \in \mathbb{R}^{n \times d}$. Standard approaches amount to searching for a precision matrix $\Theta$ representative of a Gaussian graphical model that adequately explains the data. However, most maximum likelihood-based estimators usually require storing the $d^{2}$ values of the empirical covariance matrix, which can become prohibitive in a high-dimensional setting. In this work, we adopt a compressive viewpoint and aim to estimate a sparse $\Theta$ from a \emph{sketch} of the data, i.e. a low-dimensional vector of size $m \ll d^{2}$ carefully designed from $X$ using non-linear random features. Under certain assumptions on the spectrum of $\Theta$ (or its condition number), we show that it is possible to estimate it from a sketch of size $m=\Omega\left((d+2k)\log(d)\right)$ where $k$ is the maximal number of edges of the underlying graph. These information-theoretic guarantees are inspired by compressed sensing theory and involve restricted isometry properties and instance optimal decoders. We investigate the possibility of achieving practical recovery with an iterative algorithm based on the graphical lasso, viewed as a specific denoiser. We compare our approach and graphical lasso on synthetic datasets, demonstrating its favorable performance even when the dataset is compressed.

Forecast combination involves using multiple forecasts to create a single, more accurate prediction. Recently, feature-based forecasting has been employed to either select the most appropriate forecasting models or to optimize the weights of their combination. In this paper, we present a multi-task optimization paradigm that focuses on solving both problems simultaneously and enriches current operational research approaches to forecasting. In essence, it incorporates an additional learning and optimization task into the standard feature-based forecasting approach, focusing on the identification of an optimal set of forecasting methods. During the training phase, an optimization model with linear constraints and quadratic objective function is employed to identify accurate and diverse methods for each time series. Moreover, within the training phase, a neural network is used to learn the behavior of that optimization model. Once training is completed the candidate set of methods is identified using the network. The proposed approach elicits the essential role of diversity in feature-based forecasting and highlights the interplay between model combination and model selection when optimizing forecasting ensembles. Experimental results on a large set of series from the M4 competition dataset show that our proposal enhances point forecast accuracy compared to state-of-the-art methods.

Bayesian Experimental Design (BED), which aims to find the optimal experimental conditions for Bayesian inference, is usually posed as to optimize the expected information gain (EIG). The gradient information is often needed for efficient EIG optimization, and as a result the ability to estimate the gradient of EIG is essential for BED problems. The primary goal of this work is to develop methods for estimating the gradient of EIG, which, combined with the stochastic gradient descent algorithms, result in efficient optimization of EIG. Specifically, we first introduce a posterior expected representation of the EIG gradient with respect to the design variables. Based on this, we propose two methods for estimating the EIG gradient, UEEG-MCMC that leverages posterior samples generated through Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) to estimate the EIG gradient, and BEEG-AP that focuses on achieving high simulation efficiency by repeatedly using parameter samples. Theoretical analysis and numerical studies illustrate that UEEG-MCMC is robust agains the actual EIG value, while BEEG-AP is more efficient when the EIG value to be optimized is small. Moreover, both methods show superior performance compared to several popular benchmarks in our numerical experiments.